Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

Ps I agree that I wouldn't pull them out in the middle of gcse's and if I can help it on thr middle of the year. It will be a planned move..

I don't think it will be a matter of 'is it worth it' but more of affordability. Lots of parents in the independent sector are jot independently wealthy and jobs might be lost/at risk. This is a very real prospect for many families across the country.

We are certainly in that category. I won't be pulling my children out immediately but our jobs are not secure and I am now thinking state sixth form and plan bs for others too.

I am sure I am not on my own.

The state may step in for some private schools, especially if there is local over-demand for school places. But, it won’t be to bail out the schools but rather to convert them to state schools. I think that happened to a private school in Liverpool (though the school chose that route)?

My dc are at a small independent. I hope they remain viable though if they go bust then I hope that happens soon as we are starting GCSE courses. I am sure if they do go bust then the other private schools in the area will be able to pick up all the kids (they will lose children too so will need them) but I wouldn’t want to have to switch schools half-way through GCSEs. Not sure if our local state school would have room.

The situation isn’t clear yet and I assume none of us are trawling through the accounts of every school which have been lodged at the Charities Commission. However I think there are schools in a poor financial position and they may well find that too many of their parents either withdraw or end up as bad debts. This will force closure. I too feel lots of these small schools, or poorly run ones, are teetering on the brink anyway. A relatively small number of vacancies and non receipt of fees might well see their demise.

I agree suk44. I don't know of any yet whom are struggling, but I have heard of one well known London secondary making offers way down the wait list this year

It's made a massive point to us that we made the wrong decision in sending DS1 state (grammar). There has been no provision at all and he's in year 9, whereas my friends in indie have had full teaching.

I don't want to minimise the potential impact on schools, but I'm sceptical about some of this. I would be amazed if more than a tiny minority of parents choose to home educate long term after this. The only parents I know who are finding home schooling pretty straightforward are the ones where the school is providing a huge amount of structure and support. Things which would disappear if parents actually decided to homeschool - quite apart from the social aspect.

It's only anecdotal, but among people I've spoken to, if anything the feeling of 'is it really worth continuing to pay my fees' is getting less, not more. Parents are realising that although they might be getting less for their money than they do when the schools are open, they are (in many cases) getting a lot more than they would in another setting. Not in every case, certainly - some state schools are doing brilliantly, some privates are doing poorly. But the state schools around here which are doing brilliantly - you wouldn't have a hope in hell of getting an in year place at any of them.

Barely viable!

I would tend to agree that schools from the midlands northwards might struggle. Near me in the SE though there are two small independents that take the type of child that would be a bit lost in a Larger school. Or the parents want a haven from a state school they don’t like. However with 100 on roll from yr to y6 they are not financially healthy. I think there a many schools like this. Cheap and cheerful but barely visible. Also slightly pointless as dc there don’t get into the grammars and the parents often cannot then get dc into the local girls senior independent school because they now recruit at roughly the same attainment level as the grammars. So the DC end up at the local secondary moderns. They could go boarding but it’s too costly for the parents. It’s simply not worth the money but parents always think DC will get to the grammar schools by paying.

Thanks

I can't believe parents would choose to home school over trying to get their children into a state school? It would be my idea of hell and children would miss out on the social interaction

Thank you suk44!

Is anyone a Telegraph subscriber so can access the full article?

Another in administration: www.romseyadvertiser.co.uk/educationnews/18451397.st-marys-independent-school-southampton-administration/

It was clearly in trouble anyway.

One other point.. Non-teaching staff who have been put on furlough that I know were asked not to tell parents - i.e. dinner staff, teaching assistants, secretarial, even admissions clerks. Our school wrote to say sadly support staff were being furloughed.

They are offering a full day of online lessons Monday to Friday plus additional voluntary activities.

Or sell off some land or restructure staffing. My DDs old prep had an large increase in numbers when a small prep closed a few miles away. That was 2006. The parents got less than 1 terms notice. Hardly time to plan anything. DDs prep had lost more than normal at 11, so had space but the fees were considerably more.

There will still be social distancing into next year.

Yes. The 'bounce back' is assuming a second wave won't happen

Yes, but it also says that the economy will rebound next year, and that the Bank expects 'no lasting damage' to the economy. For private schools, I think the ones that can ride out the next year will probably ultimately be OK - but there will undoubtedly be some that can't.

Bank of England warns of deepest recession on record www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52566030

I think the independent school market had too many schools in it, especially at Prep level.

Lots of the very small ones have been clinging on for years and probably would have closed in the next few years but this is speeding it up. They can't sustain a drop in pupil numbers or fee income of even small levels as their margins are too small or for some of them their debt too big already.

Secondary schools in certain regions are at risk too - where the fee-paying population is much smaller and it's far less competitive to get in. Again, the small ones will struggle. They might keep going next year, but a lot will depend on how many pull out for September. The difficulty is that if a fair few fail, some areas will be left without Independnet provision or need to travel many miles to access it - but it is a much smaller market.

Schools in the strongest position are decent sized day schools which don't depend on boarders and especially international boarders, which are in London or the south east. Although their potential customers will drop, especially for the highly competitive ones, there should still be enough students, plus their larger size means they can usually weather more storms. They have often been the ones to offer the smaller discounts too - keeping themselves in the strongest possible financial position.

What will be hard for all these schools is if disruptions continue on a large scale beyond the summer holidays. If students can't be in school still or only on a very occasional basis, parents might choose to withdraw if they have given rolling notice just in case. If they haven't given rolling notice they will be committed to another term of fees anyway. It will also be hard as the economic downturn hits and more parents lose their jobs and can't pay or can't pay in full. I guess some schools will be hit harder than others by this.

However, if schools have provided a really good quality of remote learning - and I think lots have really stepped up and done that, providing some live lessons, good pastoral support and other stuff too like a version of extra curricular, many parents will be keen to hang on if at all possible because they can see that generally the state sector haven't provided live lessons or the level of marking and personal support and the gap in lots of cases is quite noticeable. I'd think independent schools will continue to bust a gut to offer a good quality education at whatever level of lockdown/social distancing we are at, to keep parents feeling they are getting something different for their money.

But I'm sure lots of schools will close. The total pool of people paying for private education will drop and the strongest will survive.