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Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

258 replies

suk44 · 01/04/2020 22:32

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

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Aesopfable · 04/06/2020 23:16

But if your school is failing and you wish to move within the private sector then I am sure there will be quite a few other independent schools willing to welcome you with open arms.

tilder · 04/06/2020 23:06

There does seem to be a lack of understanding about state school admissions on here. I'm a bit tired and no expert, but living in catchment does not mean a school has to take a child.

Each school will have a PAN, the total number they accept per year. They can go above this if the total in school is below a certain level. Early years are also capped. It is notoriously difficult to get a school place above PAN.

An in year admission is difficult. Possible if the school has a place.

If my dc were private, and I had concerns about income or school viability, I would be getting on every waiting list I could. Last on the list does not mean last for a place. Depends on the schools over subscription criteria.

My understanding is yes a school place has to be found for your child (there are rare cases when this doesn't happen). You can express a preference, but the place offered will depend on what is available.

Effzeh · 04/06/2020 22:08

Sprouts - presumably the school was making a loss anyway but the Minster were funding it from their tourist income because of the choral side of things, and maybe just because that's how it had traditionally been. And then the bottom falls out of their tourism income, and faced with a massive black hole in their finances they decide to pull the plug on the school.

As the phrase has it, when the tide goes out, you see who's been swimming naked.

EwwSprouts · 04/06/2020 21:45

Effzeh Really interesting is that it's the fall in tourist income at York Minster that has been the final straw at Minster School.
www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/education/yorks-minster-school-set-close-after-minster-suffers-catastrophic-loss-income-during-lockdown-2873687

suk44 · 04/06/2020 18:51

1 in 10 private schools leaves Teachers' Pension Scheme

EXCLUSIVE: A total of 149 private schools have given notice of leaving the TPS – with fears that more will follow suit later in the year
www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-private-schools-leaving-teachers-pension-scheme-54

The number of private schools that have formally given notice to leave the Teachers' Pension Scheme has risen by 54 per cent since November 2019.

In January, Tes revealed that 97 independent schools had been given notice to leave according to a November 2019 freedom of information disclosure obtained by the NEU teaching union.

However, a new FoI request carried out by the NEU last month found that as of 22 May this year, 149 schools had requested to leave.

The news comes as senior figures in the independent sector fear for its future, with some suggesting that 30 per cent of schools could go bust because of the coronavirus outbreak.

The 149 private schools that signalled they will leave have now left represent 13 per cent of the 1,171 independent schools that were in the TPS in November.

I think that's a very significant figure, and has increased quickly in a fairly short time, and affects some fairly well known schools. Looks like the effects of the covid crisis could not have come at a worst time when so many private schools could not even afford to stay in the TPS.

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BubblesBuddy · 04/06/2020 16:08

One would assume the new heads were aware of the financial position. Often their remit will be to increase numbers!

Never assume former pupils are minted and will throw collective millions £ at a failing school. Harrow and Eton have ultra deep pockets, smaller, not so ancient and less prestigious schools do not. They have a more hand to mouth existence where fees are the main income and rich alumni are not the norm. Even if you have rich alumni, you have to persuade them to give to a failing institution and that’s not easy!

suk44 · 04/06/2020 13:33

I don't know any of the schools that have announced their closure personally, but I noticed from googling that both Ashdown House and Minster School had Heads that only started last September.

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missyB1 · 04/06/2020 07:48

The prep school ds is at has had some boarders in all the way through this, I think they were weekly boarders. The year 6s are now obviously back including year 6 boarders. But of course that's manageable when its not all the boarders. Quite how they are going to manage in September I have no idea! They also usually have quite a few international boarders so I suppose they might not be back. But I know they often have 4 or 5 to a bedroom.

resskiestonight · 04/06/2020 07:34

Mine wanted to act 'independently' and allow other years to go back in but had their hands tied by governmental advice which affected their insurance cover.

PettsWoodParadise · 04/06/2020 06:46

First find out the legal name of the entity and also any trust or company it is part of. You may need to check both the school and the wider organisation. You many need to do some detective work to work this out but it is usually on the website somewhere.

Charity Commission. - where if a charity it will file accounts and a report
, problem is these are old news

Companies House - look on the filings tab to get the info for the annual report - again this is often old news, a regular negative figure and few reserves should ring alarm bells. Look at the going concern statement. Look for any old strike off notices, they may just be an innocent late filing of the accounts

The Gazette - insolvency notices end up here

CE File of the High Court - you need to register and credit 15 mins of search time at a small cost but you can search for winding up orders- after a few days these usually appear in The Gazette

BestOption · 04/06/2020 01:50

Can anyone point me in the right direction to find out about the financial situation of our independent school.

It's been absolutely amazing during all of this - full timetable with some practical adjustments. Offering all manner of additional things to the kids. As well as fully 'live' classes there's been a lot of pastoral care & spirts/challenges encourages & things like yoga & 'stay fit'

They've updated us at every stage. Discount for next term 15% non boarder (us)& 25% boarding. Quite detailed about how they're making savings & lots of community Support/donations/assistance.

Dc14 loves her school (Y9) and has loved the additional socialising that It being predominantly boarding provides (but lives being non boarding) but she has really enjoyed the 'New way'.

She's fabulous at just getting on with it & doing prep etc, but she would hate to be alone in the house all day, every day so we'd need to make WFH arrangements to be home most of the time.

They said ages ago that they wouldn't be physically back until Sept. & we were happy with that (totally expected it as a large percentage are overseas boarders) but now I'm beginning to wonder what's going to happen.

As we never intended to board we didn't look at many of the boarding 'houses' but the ones we looked at were all 2 to a room (not sure if they have any larger ones) so I presume they'll only be able to have 50% if the boarders back? & whether that many will want to come back? Who knows?!

Then we have friends at her previous independent (non boarding) but almost all busses in.

Sorry, lots of thinking out loud as I just assumed she'd go back at some stage (even maybe only part time) and hadn't considered it might have to close. Stupid really, but it's an institution & seems So 'well healed' - I guess I just assumed it would be ok?! If not some of the past pupils would be willing to throw cash at it, but 🤷🏻‍♀️

suk44 · 04/06/2020 00:00

Social distancing 'impossible' in boarding schools
www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-social-distancing-impossible-boarding-schools

Protective measures against coronavirus transmission will be 'very difficult' in boarding schools, says union.

Teachers' leaders have said it will be "nigh impossible" for social distancing to be observed within boarding schools when they reopen.

Andrew Morris, assistant general secretary of the NEU teaching union, said that social distancing in boarding schools will be "very difficult".

"Boarding schools are worried about social distancing. As hard as it is in an ordinary school, it is nigh impossible in an independent boarding school which might have four pupils aged 7 in a bedroom spending long periods of time together socialising and relaxing – socially distancing is going to be very difficult," he said.

Mr Morris also said the economic future of boarding schools was uncertain, as it was unclear whether the 60,000 overseas pupils in the sector would return.

"Clearly, schools will have availed themselves of the job protection scheme which is a major mitigation against some of the losses. The worry is more the long-term economic impact and the issue of 60,000 overseas pupils. So much is unknown, given that everything’s so fast-moving," he said.

Previously, Tes reported that some boarding schools reliant on overseas challenges could face particular difficulties.

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BubblesBuddy · 03/06/2020 23:40

Private schools can act independently. That’s why they are called independent schools. They have legal obligations but opening post Covid probably isn’t one of them. Like a business, they can be advised but not told. Unless the law changes of course.

resskiestonight · 03/06/2020 22:13

If preps school can’t or won’t open up fully in sep (reading other thread about disruption into nov) not sure I can keep my two children under 7 at our prep and will have to pay a nanny to care for them instead. There must be tonnes of people in similar shoes that require both parents to work to pay fees. Unless private schools can act independently to state schools (insurance cover being one concern) the future is worrying.

Effzeh · 03/06/2020 19:09

Now York Minster school.

BubblesBuddy · 02/06/2020 17:51

They say they have 2/3 of their children not starting. That would not represent just overseas children one would think. But it’s very shaky and I suspect there are many more like it.

Aesopfable · 02/06/2020 16:31

Any school that normally has overseas boarders is going to be in trouble unless they have big reserves.

Effzeh · 02/06/2020 16:30

Also, turning a £1.7mil surplus into a £1.5 mil deficit is going it some. The para about financial reserves is also interesting - basically there aren't any, and they are borrowing to fund loans.

BubblesBuddy · 02/06/2020 16:02

I have now looked at the accounts for the Cothill Trust. The attached para is ominous. I would worry about their other schools.

Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector
BubblesBuddy · 02/06/2020 15:38

Surprised at that. Although I haven’t looked at their accounts.

Effzeh · 02/06/2020 15:26

And now Ashdown House, which is really not in the category of schools you would have predicted as being particularly vulnerable.

schoolsweek.co.uk/boris-johnsons-former-prep-school-closes-due-to-coronavirus-impact/

StaffAssociationRepresentative · 27/05/2020 17:13

The state schools only got one year of cover for the TPS changes. There will be another TPS review in 2022(?)

Some independents are already out of TPS and if more follow suit that will create further issues in the next review.

fatoprofugus · 27/05/2020 08:46

State schools are getting a grant to help them cover the cost of TPS, I believe, though doubtless it won't cover the whole cost. DS's school has decided to continue with TPS - whether that decision will still be viable now, who knows?

BubblesBuddy · 26/05/2020 23:51

If I thought a senior school might go bankrupt I would certainly get as much financial info right now on the school. Schools close and they don’t keep them open so all pupils finish y11 or y13. They close. You find somewhere else. Repeat a year if necessary. I wouldn’t be reticent about getting info and making an early decision.

Phineyj · 26/05/2020 22:01

Just to mention that state schools will also have to pay the increased pension costs (in a year I think) but won't have the option of withdrawing from TPS - as far as I know. In some ways it may be good that independents had to make that adjustment pre-Covid.