Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

Wouldn't those parents need to give notice today/tomorrow if they want to leave at the end of the academic year?
Most schools ask for a full term's notice received by the end of the previous term, not by the start of the last term.

Many small to medium sized businesses are going to be in trouble if this continues more than a couple of weeks (I'm not saying it's wrong what we are doing) and this must impact on parents with those small and medium businesses who are sending their children to independent schools. Obviously depending on when their period of notice is required for some its now for others the beginning of the summer term I suspect many parents with small and medium sized businesses will be thinking very hard and at the very least giving possible notice to leave at the end of this academic year. It must be very worrying for both schools parents and children. I'm also not convinced that many schools will have sufficient funds to offer significant financial support to all those going into yr11/13 next year who might need it.

My teenage ds ( year 10) is at an independent school. He has been having online lesson with the teachers at his school from 9am to 4:15. It’s not brilliant, but it’s better than nothing. I will pay for the summer term, however if we are still in lockdown,,I will remove him from school and look for alternatives

Sorry I can't edit the above, but apologies for an unnecessary double negative.

Hi @user1477391263 and @suk44: I don't mean that independent schools will turn into home-learning schools or radically change their model. More that many parents are looking at the zoom classes and pastoral care that some indies are providing and comparing that favourably with the more mundane, self-driven approach taken by most state schools.
Given that we don't know how long this will last, this may swing most parents into NOT handing in notice before tomorrow so as not to be liable for the Autumn term. I don't actually know any parents who are serving notice before end of term.
That said, and remember I said I was on the fence here, my LinkedIn is full of people whose jobs have been made redundant or whose small business is in big trouble. Tricky times for many.

As I understand, the amount of contributions that schools were required to make to teachers' pensions went up a lot in about 2010, resulting in rising fees. The gap between state and private schools also seems to have narrowed quite a bit over the past 10 years. I think a lot of small and not-well-known private schools will suffer.

A lot of parents will have been exploring things like online learning programs and (Skype) tutoring over this period, and this sector is likely to see huge growth---some of the middle-class, educationally-anxious parents who have been trying out these options may conclude that a good state school plus tutoring is a more cost-effective choice than a private school.

I doubt that home-learning based private schools would take off at any age. Most people don't want a growing teenager stuck at home all day spending hour after hour on screens. It's a port in a storm, but it's not what most people would choose.

One other point.. Non-teaching staff who have been put on furlough that I know were asked not to tell parents - i.e. dinner staff, teaching assistants, secretarial, even admissions clerks.

But I bet bursars are working around the clock!

I'm on the fence here.

On the one hand, the secondary schools I know that are doing the most remotely - online classes via zoom, morning registers, even virtual assemblies - are independent schools. They've put their non-teaching staff on furlough and some are giving discounts on fees. But teachers are online, available and definitely working hard. It's like they've decided to give a great service so parents are happy to pay.

The state secondaries are not trying to be an online school and are instead setting some self-guided work to keep up the knowledge the children already have. There is no online interaction (no lessons, taking registers etc.) and no follow-up if the work isn't done. Parents accept it as they know many are keeping schools open for key workers or juggling their own childcare issues.

Overall, I think this could see the resurgence in independent schools that embrace home schooling at secondary school level. I also suspect we'll see the attainment gap that has been narrowing between both sectors widen again as a result of the virus.

At primary school level - where children need to be guided and supervised - it's much less compelling and I think preps may struggle in the short term.

Yes agree with all, preps, boarding preps and boarding reliant on oversees will be hit hard. Scholarship pots will be non-existent as funds diverted to keep current pupils at the school. Also the differences you pay for in private - small class sizes, specialist music, MFL and PE teachers in KS1 and KS2 will all be hit. The quickest way for a school to increase funds is to increase class size and cut teaching wage bill.

Happy yes good points

@MarshaBradyo a few of the famous big name schools will also have matching big assets which I guess they may be able to sell off if the chips are down. But let's be realistic this is only a relatively small number.
I think many would be surprised how much even well known schools struggle financially in good times and even if only 10% of your pupils are from outside of the UK that still quite a lot of money, lets say you are a school of 700 10% form outside of the UK with fees of at least 45K that's over £3million down in one school year and many schools will have a lot more than that.The other problem for boardings schools is if we lift lockdown say June July and then impose it again in September or if parents are not totally convinced that we've got on top of it and opt not to send their children back in Sept.

Like all businesses a lot will depend on overheads. Are very old schools in a better position? In terms of what they own.

I think it will be the death knell for the few remaining boarding preps and it will put pressure on many of the boarding secondaries that depend on overseas students at least for the next year or so. Those currently operating on a knife edge will go under.

The successful schools will be those that adapt their business model to the new circumstances as successful schools have done for centuries. The schools of 2020 are very different from those of 1950, 1980 and 2000 even though they have kept the same names. That might mean an increase in day students, lower fees and less emphasis on deluxe facilities for the off spring of the global elite.

I have dc in independent special schools and a family member in a church independent school and I am a teacher myself. The quality of the work set by the three schools for the children during this period is pathetic and the staff have disappeared.

In contrast, colleagues in state schools are still working on a rota basis and online all day from home teaching and monitoring pupils’ work. You do not get what you pay for.

Yes the boarding schools would need deep pockets to stop receiving boarding fees atm.

Round here a couple of the prep schools have really been struggling with numbers any way.

One class per year instead of two for reception and year one as they just didn't have the numbers.

Another school has had to make staff redundant and lost a class in some of the year groups. My friend worked there and said financially the school was really struggling anyway.

I can see that schools such as these could quite easily close and there will be definitely be an influx of local students needing places.

I think people used the word independent as it’s one word, rather than private or public.

It's also the case that a lot of the middle-ranking boarding schools are kept afloat by foreign students, often Chinese. If this market collapses, the schools will really struggle and some will fold.

I think there will only be pressure on the state in a few places, the SE obviously is one. Not sure about elsewhere - the city I went to private school in actually had children traveling in from a vast area to do so, so would probably disperse back to those areas to the state schools so only a rather small increase in each area rather than a large increase in the area the school was located (does that make sense? No coffee yet!). And where I live now there are only 3 private schools in the whole district, around 100 children in each year across them all, again a wide geographical area & a large number of overseas students. So I can’t imagine a huge pressure on state schools were they to fail. (Only 1 of them will be at risk I think)

The cheaper ‘independent’ (why do we call them that instead of private?) schools

Independent is probably more accurate than private. They are independently funded rather than state funded. They aren't private insofar as anyone (theoretically) can go there.

Healthcare is always private and never independent though.