Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

So we've now had the first merger news this year, between Bablake School and King Henry VIII School in Coventry.

www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/two-historic-coventry-schools-announce-19035738

Don't think there's been news so far this term of any impending closures as far as I'm aware, but with the covid situation seeming to be going backwards in terms of cases and deaths and the continuation of restrictions and hit on the economy, sadly it will not be surprising if further closures/mergers are announced in the not too distant future.

Yes some schools might have some increased interest due to apparently better online provision, although interest leading to significant increase in numbers which are sustained is something else. They'd also have to increase numbers to counter those they may lose due to job losses, loss of international students, on top of dealing with the huge increase in pension contributions and the pressure to match the announced state school pay increases, whilst trying to maintain very small if any increase in fees. No easy feat.

With the news today that teachers in state schools are being given pay increases of up to 5.5% (depending on experience) there will be pressure on private schools to match these sorts of increases if their pay scales aren't going to start falling behind the state sector. I imagine this is just another thing that will add to the financial pressure given fee increases in a lot of schools aren't likely to be anywhere near this in September.

It's great for those individual schools mentioned who on the surface appear to be doing ok for now, but I think the most telling thing has been the articles linked to in this thread which have direct on the record quotes from named independent school heads and representatives of private school associations who make more than subtle suggestions to how bad the situation will be for many fee paying schools. Considering they're employed to put a positive spin on things you'd assume they wouldn't paint such a bleak picture unless they had a lot of information to go on.

I have many close family and friends who teach in private schools, and I've heard that it's likely in some of their schools that class sizes will be increasing, teachers will have less non-contact time, and more people teaching outside their subject specialism. So whilst a school may stay open and even in some cases have relatively healthy numbers, it doesn't mean what is on offer will be what it did before it terms of advantages over state schools.

Another separate issue is that many more private schools are leaving (or rather having to leave as they can't afford it) the Teachers' Pension Scheme, so even those that have managed to stay open will have only done so because they took this significant step. Significant because they know they'll find it much harder to attract and retain the very best staff.

With the constant bad news regarding the economy, likely skyrocketing unemployment, foreign students being put off coming here, plus the continuing extreme financial pressure of increased teacher pensions contributions, I still think it's very likely we'll unfortunately see some big names fall over the next 12 months, if not 6 months.

30 private schools preparing to close due to Covid-19

Parents struggling to pay their children's' fees is contributing the financial collapse of many schools

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/06/30-private-schools-preparing-close-due-covid-19/

As many as 30 British private schools are preparing to close due to the coronavirus pandemic, The Sunday Telegraph has learned, with parents struggling to pay fees contributing to their collapse.

Most schools “haven’t got deep pockets” and the current crisis has pushed dozens of institutions over the edge, according to Neil Roskilly, chief executive of the Independent Schools Association.

Nine private schools have already formally announced that they intend to shut down, but Mr Roskilly said that there are around 30 overall which are in a similar position.

“It is very worrying for the pupils and their families,” he said. “Some will resurrect themselves. Sometimes they go into administration then they will be bought up and reopened under different leadership.”

Mr Roskilly explained that the impact of parents being unable to pay fees will be a “significant” blow to schools’ finances.

This week the Minster School in York, a preparatory school which provides choristers for the city's cathedral and can trace its origins back to the seventh century, announced that it will close due to a cash shortfall caused by the Covid-19 crisis.

Boris Johnson’s former prep school, Ashdown House Preparatory School in Sussex , also informed parents that it will shut down after 180 years due to the “harsh reality” of coronavirus which has prompted a sharp fall in demand for places.

Of the schools which have so far announced their closure, half are preparatory schools and so far three have specifically cited parents’ inability to continue paying fees as a factor in their decision to shut down.

York Minster’s Dean, the Right Rev Dr Jonathan Frost, said that the Chapter of York was no longer able to keep up its investment in the school adding that in recent months “a number of families indicated they would be unable to keep their children at the Minster School.”

Moreton Hall, a prep school in Suffolk which charges £24,000-a-year for boarders, explained its reasons for closure included the fact that many parents “now find themselves in difficult financial straits” as well as loss of income from summer camps and demand for overseas boarding drying up.

Bramdean School in Exeter, another school to have closed in recent months told parents that it would be unable to “weather this storm”, adding that they had been receiving “daily requests” for fee remissions.

Stephen Spriggs, managing director at William Clarence Education which assists some of the country’s leading public schools with recruitment, said that families falling into financial difficulties and pulling their children out is a real concern.

“Preparatory schools have a lower head count which then means if they have a drop off in pupil numbers they lose out more because of the fees,” he said.

“The biggest problem for schools is looking forward into next year. What kind of boarding offer can they really offer? If the international students don’t turn up in September and British families pull their children out, you can’t make the same forecasts.”

Mind you they are offering proper online lessons unlike state.
This was debated earlier in the thread. There are many state schools offering excellent provision online.

So if there is no return to school in September then for some independent school becomes even more appealing.
As I mentioned earlier in the thread the threat posed to independent schools isn't going to recede because of this alone. No matter how brilliant the education a lot of private schools may offer, no matter how good they might be, not as many people will ultimately be able to afford the fees going forward, either now or over the next year when the economy tips into potentially the deepest recession in 300 years.