Mock results and grade predictions using previous grade boundaries

Also the first 2_3 years of a qualification often have lower boundaries while everyone gets used to them. Maths boundaries have risen every year but will probably stagnate now. History didn't switch to the new GCSE as long ago so staff are still adjusting to it.

University degrees aren't all equivalent (despite people thinking they are). Whereas GCSEs from different exam boards have to be equivalent and are based on a normal distribution of scores (if I remember correctly). That's why they aren't just 50% is a 5 etc.

I don't really know...I guess a school should have a policy on this but mine doesn't! Yes, the low boundaries suggest a hard paper.

Tbh, more than anything, I always slightly question the wisdom of using last year's exams!

As for sixth forms using predictions, it's all they have. It is certainly not a perfect system ! I think as education has become more data obsessed it gives the outward impression of reliability and accuracy...

Oh dear, my convoluted befuddlement ended up in a lot of typos

btw , lots of people do apply grade boundaries from 2019 or 2018 to sample papers. It's all we have to go on.

This is true noble (or at least I think it is) but we teachers are often also a bit befuddled by the standards applied by examiners, too.

I am pretty confident in film, despite mainly making up my own papers of patchworking together papers form the few samples that exist, that I can predict a grade. I am way less confident in English.

I know in my school that history predictions have historically been 'inaccurate'.

It's a bit of a minefield.

Last year's Eduqas paper for history may have been very very hard. therefore, what looks like a high 5/low 6 to a teacher could conceivably have needed up at an 8. Seems an extreme example but I wouldn't be surprised if the history teacher didn't know exactly what he was doing. Look at the remarks in the first year of English,. People on here were reporting increases of raw marks of over 20. My own DS's A Level Spanish went up by 18 marks...! I would hazard a guess that coursework marking is more accurate and reflective of student ability then exam marking.

Grade boundaries in subjects like history and English move a lot.

Yes but you’re not using a grade boundary for a previous year on a new paper, this isn’t saying ‘it was 50% for a 4 then, so we’re going to mark everything as 50% is a 4.

This is using the grade boundaries for the paper they were calculated for.

I know that marking in the wordy subjects is very subjective, but surely not that subjective that something that would have got an 8 can justifiably be given a 5.

Tbf I’m coming at this from a maths point of view.

As a History teacher, I tend to write my own mock exams. There are so few past papers since they've changed the structure of the GCSE that we tend to have completed them in class. Therefore we do use our own grade boundaries, which this year were a lot higher than last year's actual ones. I do explain this to the students though, and what is more important is that they understand how they can improve their technique on every question. You're right, the content is huge. The questions on the exam board I teach vary so much from question to question, I think it is something like 13 different question types across the 3 papers. Therefore technique is as important as the content. Marking is also very subjective which can also cause difficulties.

Here's the page with all their resources :

eduqas.co.uk/qualifications/history/index.html#qualSearch

ps I am a huge fan of Eduqas! They are a great exam board. Have you looked on their website for support materials for teachers? These can be really helpful.

Hmmm/ I'm on the fence on this. Grade boundaries in subjects like history and English move a lot.

Last year , my faculty got told off for 'inaccurate predictions', even though they were generated by a data guy using our marks and previous grade boundaries. The fault was squarely put on our shoulders rather than on the system of setting predictions on the shifting sands of grade boundaries. We don't mark to grades ourselves but to the marks on the markschemes (the data guy then turns these magically into grades). If you think that his marking is inaccurate that's one thing ; if you think the grade is wrong that might concern me less.

The only measure I know of that measures performance in schools is how students perform against targets/indicators which are set on prior data. the accuracy of his predictions might be scrutinised but not for any progress measure. In fact, if your DD goes on to get an 8 or 9, he'll probably be scolded for not predicting it rather than praised...

Once upon a time, teachers did finger in the air predictions ( I still do to an extent in my other subject and they are generally just as accurate!)

Is he setting the grade lower based on them not having done the whole paper? I don't like that approach but know it is something done by some departments.

I honestly think the expectation that teachers can give 'accurate predictions' quite concerning. Have to admit , I don't trust any of the predictions DS1 has been given, from the over optimistic 9s to the alarming 2s!

Right, here is the Educas past papers and their mark schemes

www.eduqas.co.uk/qualifications/qualification-resources.html?subject=History&level=GCSE&pastpaper=true

Take note of the mark scheme, especially the phrasing that they award marks for such as

-his role in transforming West Germany into a prosperous industrial state as part of theeconomic miracle;
-the introduction of the Deutschmark in June 1948 which stabilised the currency and encouraged investment;

• the levying of high taxes on the wealthy which raised revenue;

This will help her form her sentences and use key words like introduced, transformed. Have the mark scheme and past paper open in two tabs (or computers) so you can see the question and what they want as a response. There are only so many ways they can ask about a situation.

She has plenty of time, the exam isn't tomorrow and she can do this. The whole thing can be soul destroying even for the most confident and able children, she is not alone in feeling like this. I always tell my sons, this is the game, we might not like it, we need to know the rules of the game and what gets you points. And in 4 months this will all be over.

I agree with @comefromaway. Ds has ADHD and he's so easily knocked back. We're working on it, but he does need encouragement and doesn't respond well at all to punitive measures or criticism.

But a 6 in mocks does suggest a 7 or higher in the real thing so I wouldn't give it up!

She should be resilient and working for higher.

Children with ADHD and ASD are not resilient and no anmount of telling them they shoud be will make them. Too much stress or pressure can cause them to completely crumble.

I can see the hesitation.

My ds is doing maths appears frequently in the run up. I always use the grade boundaries to guide him to a grade. What the school do is use pin point to pick up strengths and weaknesses to revise the gaps.

But in a way it does appear to be what appears on the appear will determine final grade (well in maths anyway!). Ds gets 7-9. It's not his ability fluctuating!

He also did extremely well in science but they only did paper 1 (unit 1). He is predicted a 6 in science. Got 8 in biology and 9 in physics and chemistry. Got 9/9 overall based on last years grade boundaries and diving by 2 as only did unit 1.

Realistically they cannot predict a 9. A) because it may just so happen ds was very knowledgable on the question in that particular appear and b) he hasn't done unit 2 (yet!).

And I don't understand why him pointing out she did not so well in one palaver is a bad thing? Ds did 3 geography papers. 2 were very good (for him) and one wasn't good. He was told that. Told he needs to focus on x y and z to improve grade.

Ok, the history teacher sounds difficult but your dd shouldn't really be dropping a subject because she thinks she'll get a 6. She should be resilient and working for higher. A 6 is hardly a bad grade a anyway!

But it was incredibly demotivating and some of her friends changed their A level choices accordingly.

Each cohort does determine the boundaries to a certain extent but it’s based on how difficult that years exam paper was balanced against KS2 data for that years cohort (to allow for a specially poor or weak cohort).

So basically the history teacher is talking utter bollocks

Dd had similar with physics (except it was excusable as there were only sample papers the first year of 9-1). But half of the top sets failed physics mock, dd was graded a Grade 4. (Predicted a 6/7) and with Grades 6-8 in all her other subjects. It caused uproar as some of these kids were wanting to apply for A Level and were wanting to know why they hasn’t been made aware they were doing so badly.

She got a Grade 8 in the actual exam.

Which History board is she taking for GCSE? Ds seems to be the only one who sat the OCR exam last year, everyone on here was AQA. For his mock in both November and February he got a 6. But this wasn't a lack of knowledge (AO1) but an essay technique.

So because, as you said the content is huge, he was constanty just trying to put all the facts into his head for 5 topics. However, after the February mocks and knowing he had all the AO1 he needed, he could essay plan.

He looked at previous questions such as Cotton was the main reason for expansion in the US, how far do you agree? and he could now plan a response. Not a full written one but know what facts he would argue to agree and disagree and his "clincher" final paragraph. In the end he got a 9.

Don't let her lose faith in her ability to do well in this. Where is she losing marks? What does she need to change or add to increase her marks? Is it knowledge or second order concepts? (as in why this led to that, and as a consequence this happened.) That is where she needs to look.

Her teacher sounds awful. All of Ds1's teachers fell over themselves to help, booklets of past paper questions, revision guides produced by them, booster classes etc.

The mocks are the best indicator of where your child is, but there is nothing to stop them improving that grade. Ds1 got a 7 in English lit but the year before that exact mark was an 8. So yes boundaries move with the cohort. All they can do is their best and the teacher should be encouraging that.

Motivation is the key. Just keep chipping away at the work after listening to the feedback. I've known plenty of students to get grade 8s at GCSE and then flunk the A' Level and also perform relative poorly at GCSE and get an A grade at A2. If she isn't going to do history then get her to do enough work to get a good pass. The essay practice will be good for other subjects too.