Predicted UCAS grades and correlation to possible offer grades ?

Your daughter's grades are fantastic, but I'm afraid I have to disagree with the poster who said you could be looking at Oxbridge. Not unless your school qualifies for some sort of widening participation allowance.

I know a few of DS's friends who went to do Maths at Oxbridge and they were exceptional at Maths - getting A*s at Maths/Further Maths and Gold in Maths Olympiad etc - they are all, very obviously, naturally talented, brilliant mathematicians.
The maths admissions test is very challenging, as are the STEP papers and it seems unlikely that your daughter would bridge the gap between now and then.

I can't see why your daughter wouldn't get offers from every other university though?
Friend of DS's had an offer from Warwick of AAA, but was still offered a place for Physics when he got AAB.

Honest question, is there any one around with a child who has got an offer in Physics with a C in Maths A level?

Yep RG as well. Tbh the C achieved doesnt reflect dc's mathematical ability, more their laziness in exam technique. Dc in question is coping well though, with no need for the extra maths classes provided, and now understands the importance of not being a lazy sod....

I did physics and the maths was really hard, I've got no idea how I passed tbh, that was with an A in maths but no further maths.

Honest question, is there any one around with a child who has got an offer in Physics with a C in Maths A level? There is so much maths in Physics I cannot imagine how someone with a C can survive the coursework.

Physics is strong as is biology has she thought outside the box a little. What about physiology the physics of how the body works way less Maths and the Maths is relatively straight forward.

Sorry for typo ! should read at no point do you say that she !

OP, why does she want to take physics so much? It may be being lost in translation but at no point do yous at that she says she loves it with a passion? This isn't because of future earnings, or status, is it?

I'd be most wary of what seems a rather flippant (dare I say arrogant?) attitude to geography! At the end of the day, all of these subjects are A Levels. You really can't do brilliantly without putting in work (or at least it is very rare).

At the end of the day, she will most likely get offers from everywhere she applies to (taking Oxbridge out of the equation) but then she does need to actually get the grades after that!.

I take it she is only in year 12? It really is very early days to be confidently predicting outcomes.

I have a DC doing physics at a high ranking university who is really a mathematician fascinated by the big concepts of physics (specialising in theoretical physics). I get the impression that most who well in that type of course would have found maths at the level of further maths easy at school.
I think I would postpone judgement for your DD until May due to previous poor teaching and the potential to catch up on gaps. She can then think about courses that suit her talents as well as interests. She might be better suited to apply for a natural sciences degree like the one at Durham which include physics options but also flexibility. Or geoscience type courses.
Engineering without a very strong maths A level grade would also be hard to get into one of the more competitive degrees.

Your daughter's predicted grades are superb and I think she is highly likely to get all 5 offers. If she can improve the maths grade to an A, she is looking at Oxbridge.

However, as others have said, maths is an integral part of physics. My late grandfather was a Professor of Physics and I have never met a better mathematician (much better than my father who actually has a Doctorate in Maths). My grandfather's brain was akin to a mini-computer and he tutored our whole family in maths all his life (with A* star results even though we were all completely untalented in that area).

True

universities want to protect their average UCAS tariff.

And making someone with predicted grades below their usual offer makes absolutely no difference to their tariff....

remember we're talking about offers here, not accepting those with low grades.

Titchy, it depends on the grades, if the predicted grades of the student are way out of what the department want, they may reject anyway as even in shortage subjects, universities want to protect their average UCAS tariff.

Does anyone know whereabouts universities reject you based on mocks. Eg if you are predicted abc and their expected offer grades are usually astar astar a then would they give you an offer or just reject you?

They are likely to make the standard offer regardless of her grades. For example, if the uni standard offer is AAA they are likely offer a place conditional to her getting that offer but, if they don’t have as many applicants with those grades, they may accept her anyway with slightly lower grades but she won’t know until results day.

She is very unlikely to be rejected due to predicted grades - that's just not how the majority of shortage subject departments work!

Every university is different but I would say that a C in ma Maths is likely to disqualify her for physics and most engineering degrees. Simply put, the main indicator that a student is going to be successful in a Physics degree is not their physics grade but the strength of their maths at A level.

I would say however that considering the problem might be deficient teaching, she may still catch up even if his predicted maths grade is not fantastic:

Clearing is changing, these days you see a lot of high achievers shopping around on the day with their attained grades on hand. So even if she gets rejected due to her predicted grades, she can still get a place in a top university if she catches up by her A levels exams.

She should apply to places across the offer range. I'd be very surprised if she didn't get five offers even with say ABC predicted for Physics. It's a shortage subject being blunt - unis need bums on lab stools. Ds had ABC predicted - got five offers for Physics, three RG.

Very few will reject even with low predicted - they'll simply make the usual offer.

30 odd years ago I took physics at uni because my maths (B, well before A* grades were a thing) wasn’t good enough to do maths. It was a mistake because my maths wasn’t really good enough to do physics! I stuck the course but only got an average degree.

So unless she can improve her maths significantly, she might be better off doing geography or even biology than physics. And concentrate on 3 A levels.

Maths counts as a science A levels for all UK universities so she doesn't need biology. Far better to get 3 higher grades than 4 lower ones: universities really don't care about the 4th. Drop biology unless she adores it. Really unwise to drop maths if she wants to do physics. One daughter just graduated from Sheffield in physics and philosophy (A levels maths, physics, rs) and a second has offers from 4 Russell group universities (rejected from Oxford) for biology (A levels maths, biology, rs and AS drama).

I lecture (engineering) in lecture theatres in the physics building. They're not that great at cleaning the black boards and what is left there is very scary maths. I say that as an Engineer, where we did daunting maths (most of which I have forgotten because I don't use much maths in my specialities, many of my colleagues use the difficult maths every day). Modern physics is largely maths, so its unsurprising that good entry grades in maths are required. My university asks for a minimum of ABB at A level with the A in maths.

I work for a university that offers Physics and I agree with many of the comments above. Four A-levels is unnecessary, especially if it dilutes the grades of Physics and Maths, so unless she is adamant she wants all four I would agree drop Biology.

Some lower ranked universities will be more flexible and take into account overall UCAS points whereas some of the most famous Physics departments will specify things A A A, so a fourth A-level doesn't actually help her there.

Maths is just as important at degree level, it's a big step up and if students can't keep up with the Maths she will have a miserable time and possibly drop out.

She needs to be really honest with herself about the Maths - is this something she wants to explore at degree level and possibly a core part of her career? (If she stays in Physics).

Universities are gearing up for their post-application Open/Visit days, these are the standard Open Days are the best opportunity to talk to universities to understand what the course and assessment is like, but also what makes their courses different from each other, what research and industry links they have, and types of jobs graduates go onto.

I'd advise that she doesn't need to have her whole career mapped out, but if there are topics, research areas or careers out there that inspire her she's on the right path!

But it's definitely worth looking at degrees in Engineering or fields of Geography where the Maths and Physics could be invaluable. Environmental science and environmental engineering are getting a lot of attention these days.

Good luck!

DS's offer from Southampton this year was AAA / AABC (including AA in Maths and Physics). It's possible that some applicants might receive a lower offer, especially if they have several contextual flags.

Maths is going to be really important for Physics. Check out what the universities say, because most of them are likely to specify a grade for maths. Hopefully the tutor will help get that improved, but she needs to be aware that maths is going to be a big part of her study at uni.

Some Russell group entry requirements for physics:

Oxford: "We expect that all students who are accepted to study Physics at Oxford would be capable of achieving a Grade A in Further Maths A-level, even if they have not taken the exam." (They provide some extra teaching for those who haven't been able to take FM, but it looks like they expect them to pick it up very quickly.)

Manchester: "AAA-A*AA to include Physics and Maths. "

Southampton: "AAB-ABB including grades AA-AB* in mathematics/further mathematics and physics, with a pass in the physics Practical
or
ABBC including grades AB in mathematics/further mathematics and physics, with a pass in the physics Practical"

Be wary, not bexeary (?) stupid phone.

Agree with those saying bexeary of physics degree with weaker maths.

She may need another science to do a physics degree, but that would certainly include maths and probably geography, so that's no reason to keep doing biology.

But as others say, why not consider biology or geography or some course using those if she is doing so well there? What makes her want to do physics?