When Are Predicted Grades Given - GCSE

noblegiraffe
Many schools, mine included, will have marks out /8 /20 /30 etc on each question. On certain pieces of assessment we have provisional boundaries from a mix of the original information on how they were working grades out (the info we had prior to course starting), previous year boundaries etc.
E.g. If we do a June 2018 paper then there are grade boundaries for that paper.

Students are categorically told that boundaries are set after final exams and that these are indicative only. There's no talk about being "3 marks off an 8" the anything.

It's not a perfect system, but the alternative is having no current working levels at all and given that (as this thread shows) people want staff to have a crystal ball for final exams, no current working level would be daft.

You'll have current working levels on pieces of classwork.

You what now? You bloody well shouldn’t!

MoreThanImFeeling
Because not all teachers make accurate judgements overall. Also, not all teachers teach A Level and so haven't the knowledge to know if a child will do well on the A Level course.
In addition to that, 6th forms take internal candidates from their school and external so entry grades for all are much fairer. Plus, a child might to well in class but do badly in exams; that might be a sign that a levels aren't right for them as there's even more content.

Teachers see 100s of pupils, it is disingenuous to say they have no idea of likely outcomes.
There was over 10 marks difference between grades over 2 years in my subject. How on earth would I be have been able to predict that?

As it happens, when I went through my GCSE results this year I would say my back of envelop expectations were correct in 80% of cases and there were a couple of real curve balls. I also know of many who've been surprised by how their class have come out (high and low). The grade boundaries are norm referenced for the national cohort and add in irregularities in marking then unless someone closely follows what lots of other schools are doing by having a professional network across a range of schools and regions then it's fairly hard to get an accurate picture of what the national bell curve is likely to look at. It's also worth saying, my interest in this is beyond the realms of reasonable expectations.

There are many ways of reporting. Personally I think full written reports are a waste of time. I like the 3 times a year data report with a current working level and attitude to learning level. From there a phonecall is much easier and useful.
In terms of written feedback, feedback can be verbal in class, written in book etc but it is mainly for the students to know how to improve. Feedback focusing on grades is fairly ineffective at getting students to achieve their potential. Moving away from that was the one of the best things I did as a teacher. Each child is told something they can improve when we do a piece of work, they have a go. I always tell the students, if they listen to task feedback and keep making the smaller steps then they'll do well. This usually means many students achieve higher than their target grades because we don't talk in target grades; we talk in terms of progress. Then when I talk to parents I tell them "this is their current working level, to move further they need to do X y z".

Current working level is a more meaningful piece of information than any predictions (and yes I say the same If SLT come round pestering everyone for predicted outcomes as every year people over predict on internal data).

Personally I feel we should do away with gcses - all kids should study maths and english to 18 (but not all to the same level) and university applications should be submitted after the results of the final exams at 18.

I quite like your idea teen but am not sure the Oxbridge crowd would agree. On the GCSE thread, you can see how many parents are upset/DCs are upset because DC was 'predicted' to get a 9 and got an 8 (or sometimes less). We need a better term than prediction.

To answer the OP , at my school, we give indicator grade sin year 9 or 10, subject dependent , which is based on KS2. At DS's school, they have MEGs , which seem lower than the indicator grades at my school, so that's what annoys me as school are measured against achieving these and one school is being notably less ambitions than another.

At my school, we then also start 'predicting' grades in year 10. In my main subject, we have absolutely no control over this : a data man does it. Not very popular with the teachers! We used to claim huge accuracy with this but I think this year,the predictions were out. I imagine the teachers will be blamed , rather than the methodology!

The place I work reports to parents three times a year. We give a target grade (based on SATS), a current grade (based on class/homework) and a predicted grade (our best guess for what they will get at GCSE).

To be honest, the predicted grades are generally a complete nonsense - children are not robots, they do not all progress at "predicted" rates. The only time predicted grades are half way accurate is after the mocks in year 11.

Thinking some more, all I really want is something like:

• not expected to reach a 4 (1-3)
• borderline reach a 4 (3-5)
• should reach a 4 (4-6)
• expected to do well (6-9)

More Why indeed? Especially the schools with very high requirements.

In Hants with our college system we found it hard to get an idea as to whether DD1 was 'suitable' for A levels. Her current teachers didnt teach A level, and the colleges didnt know her.

If teachers are so aware of ability and likely outcomes why are we still requiring a specific GCSE grade to continue in a subject to A level - surely a teacher who has taught a pupil has a better idea of their ability than their test performance on one day?

So predict with a range or something then.

If you are currently working at a 4 at the end of y10, and generally pupils go up 0-2 grades in y11, then tell the parents the prediction is 4-6. If Set 2 generally come out with grades 5-7 then tell the parents that. Give them something to work with. Teachers see 100s of pupils, it is disingenuous to say they have no idea of likely outcomes.

Some teachers act as if parents are going to shoot them if their child doesn`t get the exact predicted grade. Lola maybe your school gives lots of beautiful written feedback. Some schools keep books in school, and just give a number in the end of term report.

the parent says "but you predicted them a 6". A 6 might have been the best judgement I had based on classwork, but if they've had a bad day or not revised properly I can't change it. Thats all I want, a best judgement based on classwork and general work ethic. Of course it wont be your fault if my child fails to revise, or her hamster dies on the morning of the exam, or just has a bad day.

You need an idea end y10 / early y11 to inform options for 6th form. What schools might accept you, what subjects might be suitable, A levels v BTECs etc.

I've had 2 go to Sixth Form. It's very common to change your options on GCSE results day. Our school accepts changes to A-level choices until the end of September of their first year in Sixth Form. You can't know if BTEC is better than A-level until you have your results. People who get 5/6 are advised to do BTECs while 7+ people are advised to do A-level. Some subjects are offered at BTEC and GCSE.

The thing is, you do need some idea of what is expected.
Doesn't have to be a predicted grade

You need an idea in y8 / y9 when selecting options. e.g. If you don't know you are ace at Drama but hopeless at Art you might pick Art over Drama.
Predicted grades in y8/9 are even more nonsensical than at KS4.
You'll know if you're good at a subject from your class marks, feedback, reports etc and generally knowing yourself and your interests.

You need an idea end y10 / early y11 to inform options for 6th form. What schools might accept you, what subjects might be suitable, A levels v BTECs etc.
You'll have current working levels on pieces of classwork. Youll also know your strengths and weaknesses across your subjects. If a student can't say they're good at a subject based on being in school every week then it's probably not an A level for them.

And throughout school you need an idea where, if so minded, you as a parent might like to arrange some extra help.
Again, not covered by a predicted grade. Current working levels will show current performance. If students are getting the same targets day in day out then they either need to act on them or they may benefit from extra help.
A predicted grade shouldn't be the reason to arrange additional help or not. Otherwise we get situations where (for example) student is predicted a 6 but ends up with a 4 and the parent says "but you predicted them a 6". A 6 might have been the best judgement I had based on classwork, but if they've had a bad day or not revised properly I can't change it.

To my mind it isn't acceptable for schools to say 'we have no idea'. Even if it is with a range, schools need to give some clue.
I can list strengths and weaknesses for every child I teach.
If a child is working hard, acting on feedback, preparing for assessments, listening to advice and guidance, completing homework etc then there's no reason they won't reach their potential at the end of y11.
If they aren't doing the above then I'll be on the phone home because their progress is a concern as they're not engaging with the learning. If they could benefit from a little extra support then I'd have called home or put things in place in school.

A predicted grade is largely meaningless as I know nothing about the national cohort that they're going to be norm referenced against.

The thing is, you do need some idea of what is expected. But when the expected does not resemble the actual what is the point? Both my kids did so much better in the real thing than the school ever expected and on one shocker did a lot worse - I'm not sure the expected grades influenced their choice much - they were so out of sync.
For example ds had expected grade 5 in French Year 9 - and this was projected grade of his supposed ability to achieve 2 years in the future, but ds loved French so he took it - he got a grade 9!!! he found the low expectations of the school hard to deal with.
DD was given an expected grade in her double science of 6:5 - but she still wanted to do a science at A level, she got 8:8, which was brilliant but even I was surprised by the low expectation of a 6:5 - it made no sense give her previous exam results - I suspect a data entry error but the school refused to entertain the notion - my experience of targets and expectations are that they are a load of rubbish at best and at worst - they can really distort reality. Thankfully we had wised up to their unreliability and my kids were encouraged to follow their heart's desire!

Some sixth forms and FE colleges require predicted grades as part of the application, so schools can receive requests for predicted grades anytime from the autumn of Y11. After the mid-Y11 mock exams, the predictions become more accurate.

Having had 2 kids go through GCSEs here are my thoughts.

Predicted grades before y11 are pure guesswork. For subjects that are set, you can hope that your child is on track for a good grade is maths if they are in top set but you need to keep an eye on their test scores and see how they compare with the class. (Kids at our school are told highest and lowest test scores)

With y11 mocks, grades are only an indicator if your child has finished the course and revised hard.

Most importantly, hormones can mean a child who studies hard up to y10 like my Dc1 can suddenly stop working in y11 and cause their grades to plummet. He ended up getting the grades for Sixth Form but it was fucking hard work balancing single parenthood with getting him to school in the first place.

The thing is, you do need some idea of what is expected.

You need an idea in y8 / y9 when selecting options. e.g. If you don't know you are ace at Drama but hopeless at Art you might pick Art over Drama.

You need an idea end y10 / early y11 to inform options for 6th form. What schools might accept you, what subjects might be suitable, A levels v BTECs etc.

And throughout school you need an idea where, if so minded, you as a parent might like to arrange some extra help.

To my mind it isn't acceptable for schools to say 'we have no idea'. Even if it is with a range, schools need to give some clue.

My ds gets a predicted grade at the end of every term through the whole of secondary.

DS1's school gives no predictions at all. Parents were pointed towards their placement in their usual Nov exams of year 11, which bore no resemblance to mocks, being mostly on the term's work, and the stats for what proportion of the year last year got what grade, suggesting that parents might get a rough guide from doing the maths with that data (eg, french I came 125 out of 260 and 75% last year got A star, so that's what I should expect ).

I suspect they didn't want to take responsibility!

They don't do mocks either, oddly.

Predicted grades are non-sensical before mid Year 11 in my opinion. Really ridiculous.

It’s like someone doing a sprint and telling them their time in a marathon in 2 years’ time based on that.

Half-way through yr10 DS was given aspirational grades & discussed at parents evening which was about a month later. His end of yr10 exam results were a mix of on target and needs to pull his finger out.

I don't think there is much point predicting the grade until they are deep into the course? We had our first set of predicted grades at the end of Yr 10. I think we will be getting a constant set of grades from now on.....

My son has just done his GCSEs were were given minimum grades in year 10 (we have 3 reports a year) so basically what they should achieve with their current attitude to learning/effort etc. Then an attainable grades what they could achieve with some effort. Plus we get the usual AP grade so you can see how far off they are.

The actual predicted GCSE grades were sent to us after Year 11 November mocks which were just a general 7+ given for most subjects in Ds1's case but a 6 in History (he got a 9.) We had a second parents' evening in February after the February mocks where we were verbally told roughly what they would get.

I agree about the KS2 SATs being an influence, Ds1 based on that should have got a 6 in maths, so the grading system only allowed his maths teacher to put him down for a 7 as in they could only go one grade higher than the system said. Ds1 was getting 9s in tests and mocks and actually achieved a very comfortable 9 in his actual GCSE maths.

Also his Year 10 minimum grade for science was 6,6 his attainable was 7,6 his AP1 was 6,6. So this makes me think with 2 terms of year 10 to go plus year 11 that the science grade is also possibly based on his SATs results, if memory serves he was a 4 for English and a 5 for maths on the old primary school grading system. He achieved 9,9 in his GCSEs.

I think it is useful for parents to see where their child sort of is in terms of what they might achieve, however the only thing holding a child back from smashing those targets is the child. My own son is testament to that. Worked his arse off and did incredibly well.

Predicting GCSEs before year 10 seems like madness to me.

We've had vague flight path grades since the end of y7, but won't get proper predicted grades until y10. Even then they will change up and down during y10 and y11. A few years back under the old system, DD1's final predicted grades ended up all being within 1 grade of her final result (though my predictions were closer than the school's.)

Our school presented us with target grades and teacher target grades from Year 7 and they were a pile of rubbish in Year 7 and even in the mocks before GCSE they continued to be a pile of rubbish - and that was with 2 consistently hard working kids.

No target grades given, only mock results!