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Original poster

Research: September-borns do better at GCSE?

81 replies

stubiff · 07/08/2019 09:20

Following on from my offer here

TeenTimesTwo asked

Do children born in September perform better at GCSE? Does the most recent evidence still suggest it?

Caveats/Disclaimers:
We are talking averagely, not every child born in September.
The graph is from FFT (see below).
There may be other reports/data you want to look at.
If you know of any other relevant reports then please shout.
Don't shoot the messenger!

Data Source IFS
"...large differences in educational attainment between children born at the start and end of the academic year in England."
"differences are largest soon after children start school and decrease as they get older."
"relative to children born in September, children born in August are 6.4% less likely to achieve five GCSEs or equivalents at grades A*–C."
"and around 2% less likely to go to university at age 18 or 19"
"and around 2.3% less likely to attend a high-status Russell Group institution if they do"
"even a one-month difference in age has an effect"
"those born in January are 2.8% less likely to achieve five A*–C grades in GCSE"
"those born in August are 5.4% more likely to be labelled as having mild special educational needs at age 11"

Data Source FFT
Data Source FFT Education Datalab
"August-born pupils close the gap as they get older but remain behind September-born peers by the end of KS4."
"in terms of raw attainment (Attainment 8), they (Aug-born) remain 0.3 grades per subject behind (Sep-born)"

Data Source Durham University
"Probably the simplest solution in the short term is to routinely age-standardise all assessment results."
"no valid reason why the younger children in each year group should have a worse chance in education because of a bureaucratically convenient decision outside their control."

Research: September-borns do better at GCSE?
OP posts:
Original poster
stubiff · 07/08/2019 11:59

@noblegiraffe

re
Is that graph available for other years? The gap between Sept/Oct and Dec at GCSE seems quite wide when the distribution was fairly even at KS1 (I realise the scale is deceptive!).

Doesn't appear to be data fro other years.
Rough calcs show the Dec point to be about 38/40% (from Sep) on the scale for both KS1 and KS4, so roughly similar.

OP posts:
Grasspigeons · 07/08/2019 11:47

Puberty is quite a big time for brain development - maybe being a year younger in brain development has an impact.

TeenTimesTwo · 07/08/2019 11:41

So, why do we think it hasn't 'unwound' by GCSEs then?

Pure speculation without backup facts permitted, but input from teachers / other professionals appreciated!

Is it

  • they don't grasp the basics so well, so are forever building on shaky foundations?
  • early use of ability tables means they aren't subject to as hard work and over time this impacts
  • they see their older peers being 'better' and thus lose confidence
  • summer borns are intrinsically less capable (no I don't believe this)
dingit · 07/08/2019 11:29

My ds and his cousin were in the same class. She was September born, him August.
So when he was a month old she was walking. Obviously the development stages are narrower by school age, but for all of the foundation stage, ds was very tiny compared to his peers, and his fine motor skills were slow to develop. The family were always comparing their achievements 🙄
Fast forward to him a week shy of his 18th birthday and her a month shy of 19.
She got better gcse results, but not amazingly so. She is waiting for A level results, and is now not sure if she want to go to uni. He has a Btec equivalent qualification, and has landed himself a very good apprenticeship starting next month.

I know they are just an example, but I think it's quite a good one.

noblegiraffe · 07/08/2019 11:21

Is that graph available for other years? The gap between Sept/Oct and Dec at GCSE seems quite wide when the distribution was fairly even at KS1 (I realise the scale is deceptive!).

Age standardising GCSE results would be problematic as they are supposed (although they don’t) to represent a certain standard of education achieved. If employers are saying ‘I want you to have a grade 4 in maths and that will mean that you have a certain level of numeracy’ then that would no longer be true if the September-born grade 4 had a higher level of numeracy than an August-born grade 4.

It would be like suggesting allowing more minor faults for certain groups of people sitting their driving test.

TeenTimesTwo · 07/08/2019 11:03

Wow Thank you. That really is quite stark isn't it?

I wonder what could reasonably be done about it? I can't see parents of winter born children being happy with age standardised GCSE results. Think of how much some people complain about university contextualised offers.

Deferring for Reception is all very well, but parents may be desperate for the child care and not realise the impact.

(I have an autumn born and a summer born, both of whom probably could have benefitted from an extra year somewhere.)