Here’s the article, I just hope whatever decision they make is done by October!
The chances of GCSE and A-level exams going ahead next summer are only 50:50, according to an influential Tory MP.
Robert Halfon, the chairman of the education select committee, has said he wants the exams regulator Ofqual to be set an October deadline to decide whether to scrap exams next year and again award grades based on teachers’ assessments of children’s results in mock exams and classwork.
He is expected to give Ofqual officials this stark message on Wednesday before telling the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, the same thing when he appears on September 16 for a grilling about this summer’s A-level fiasco.
Halfon, the MP for Harlow, has warned that teenagers may have missed too much schooling to catch up and that a rise in coronavirus infections could force thousands of pupils back into online learning.
His warning about a second wave was brought into focus by a leaked government report that set out the devastation it could bring this winter, with a “reasonable worst case scenario” of 85,000 deaths from the virus across the UK.
The report, details of which have been leaked to us, projects that there will be 77,000 Covid-related deaths in England, 4,000 in Wales, 2,600 in Scotland and 1,900 in Northern Ireland.
Halfon argued that an analysis should be carried out to decide how likely it is that children’s education would be further disrupted by higher infection rates, either locally or nationally.
He said the decision on next summer’s exams should be taken quickly so that teacher assessments could start if necessary, and that pupils should be checked to find out how much remedial help they needed after missing months of lessons.
“It is 50:50 that exams go ahead next summer,” Halfon said. “Schools, the Department for Education and Ofsted need to work out . . . how much disruption there will be to pupils’ learning in the coming year. Serious analysis needs to be done and then they need to make an announcement about exams within the next few weeks.” He said his preferred option would be to delay the exams by several weeks.
In Scotland, pupils are set to be taught a cut-back version of the curriculum and given more choice of exam questions to boost their chances of obtaining good grades. Ofqual was consulting on similar proposals before its chief executive Sally Collier resigned last week.
Halfon said it was vital to avoid another disastrous exams season. His committee was one of the first to sound the alarm about the algorithm blamed for thousands of pupils having scores downgraded. Ofqual officials will be questioned by MPs this week. The government U-turned and accepted teacher assessments of performance.
Steve Chalke, chief executive of Oasis, one of the biggest academy trusts, said: “The shambles of this year’s exam season will be nothing compared with what will happen this coming year if this is not resolved quickly. We need . . . a baked-in decision that people can rely on.”
This weekend, the heads of four education unions wrote to Williamson calling for a back-up plan in case exams are again disrupted by the coronavirus.
The threat to next summer’s exams comes as schools prepare to reopen fully to all pupils. On Friday, Williamson set out a “Plan B” for schools to cope with the risk of pupils having to be taught online this autumn in areas with high rates of Covid-19 infection.
The report on a potential second wave was prepared by the government’s Sage scientific advisory group and was sent to regional planners to enable local authorities to prepare services, including mortuaries and burials. The plan, based on epidemiological modelling, covers a 38-week second wave beginning last month and expected to last until March. It assumes that restrictions on households may be imposed again and a “death rate” from the coronavirus of 0.7%.
Some experts were sceptical of the modelling. Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said some of the assumptions were “implausible” and assumed “we’ve learnt nothing from the first wave of this disease”.
The government said: “We continue to prepare for a wide range of scenarios. Our planning is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen.”
Ofqual said: “There are no plans to cancel either GCSEs or A-levels in 2021 or to curtail programmes of study. But we keep all plans constantly under review.”