Targets and predictions for GCSE

Schools' predicted grades for GCSE will be needed on applications for sixth forms. Those sixth forms, whether schools or colleges, will make offers based on those predictions. If you are predicted a 5 for Maths but the sixth form you want to study Maths A level at insists on a minimum of a 7, you will not get an offer from them.

All schools set targets. They have to in order to measure progress. Not all schools share those targets with the pupils.

Our school doesn't tell the pupils Targets, only Predictions.

On the y11 report it did have some waffle about 'based on KS2 SATs expected progress in Maths would lead to X grade, and better than expected Y grade (and the same for English)'. But is was clearly a postscript to the actual report.

Predictions are based on 'this is the grade we think you are most likely to end up with given your work ethic, progress and attainment to date'. They can be adjusted every term.

I think predictions are needed to help the DC focus correctly, and to be able to discuss suitable options for after GCSEs. They can also be tweaked, by raising for a DC who needs to aspire, and lowering for a DC who gets overly stressed.

I don't know how they did predictions for recent exams, whether they gave a range or an individual number, or whether they predicted 9s for anyone.

DS2's targets were mostly 9s with a few 8s.

Because of the uncertainty over the new GCSEs (first year of exams for all subjects except Maths & English) the teachers erred on the side of caution with their assessments and so his colour-coded reports often showed he was under target.

He is resilient, didn't take the reports to heart, and went on to get mostly 9s with a few 8s.

More sensitive pupils might have become quite demoralised by the process.

I really dislike the computer generated targets, from your Yr6 SATs results.
Apart from not seeing how being good at maths when you are 10 yrs old can really predict what you are going to get in Geography or French when you are 15, even if all other things were equal, it is just unlikely that all other things are equal.

Both my dds used to be cross that their reports were rarely 'green' (each subject would give you a red, amber or green colour in their school as to if you were 'on track to meet your target'.) However much staff would tell them that they were doing well, and it was just the 'system' generating ridiculously high targets for them, it still upset them twice a year, every year, when these damned stupid reports came out.