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New research: number to get straight 9s could be as low as 200

105 replies

noblegiraffe · 01/07/2018 08:49

Unlike the previous prediction of 1-2 students getting straight 9s, this one is based on an analysis of 2016 exam data by Cambridge Assessment.
For students taking at least 8 subjects, they reckon between 200 and 900 will get straight 9s, out of about half a million students.
About 2000 got straight A*s in 2016.

www.tes.com/news/very-few-will-get-GCSE-clean-sweep

OP posts:
gillybeanz · 02/07/2018 16:56

Is it a given that all higher ed courses will need Maths and English GCSE?
I ask as there are colleges (uni level) dd looking at that state how many GCSE's are required, but nowhere does it say including Maths and English, like other uni's I've seen.

I wholeheartedly agree that kids need to know where they stand and realistic targets.
I think the only ones who can say they are going to work hard and see what happens are the lower end of the grades, I find this acceptable if it stops them worrying, as they can only do their best.

noblegiraffe · 02/07/2018 16:20

I think there must be very few children who can simply say ‘I’m going to work hard and see where the chips fall.

Most need to know if they are likely to meet sixth form/college entry requirements so they can make plans, what courses they’re likely to be able to take etc. The schools write their timetables based around applications so DC can get their chosen combination of subjects.

Last year the take-up rate for maths A-level appears to have dropped. It’s likely that students sitting papers for the new GCSE thought that they were crap at maths and knocked it off their list of possible A-levels. Actually it turned out that only 50% was needed in the exam to qualify to do maths A-level in most places and if students had known that in advance they might have been more likely to consider it.

OP posts:
TeenTimesTwo · 02/07/2018 15:58

Maybe that's the difference user. You are talking about graduates which is 5 years after GCSEs and 2 education levels later. I am talking about pupils who may well do apprenticeships / BTECs then work, for whom 'strategizing' so they get the required GCSE passes may be very important.

Anyway we (well I) have wandered a long way from straight 9 pupils!. Smile

MidLifeCrisis007 · 02/07/2018 15:57

The number of straight 9s will be much lower this year than next year as many independent schools do a mixture of GCSE/IGCSE boards. Only half of my DS's GCSEs will be graded 1-9, the others being the old grading system not that he is necessarily a contender for a clean sweep anyway! In fact IIRC there is still the odd IGCSE subject being graded "old style" In 2019!

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 15:52

Most big graduate employers use online tests, which they consider far more reliable than public exams.

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 15:50

From an employers’ POV, far better a standardized online CAD.

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 15:45

That’s good to know, goodbyestranger.

TeenTimesTwo · 02/07/2018 15:36

And surely better a visible mark scheme than the required answers being transmitted by a nod and a wink between the question setters and favoured teachers?

TeenTimesTwo · 02/07/2018 15:35

Are they? Unless we do away with subject exams altogether, then surely focussing if needed on core English and Maths (and possibly Science) is always going to be needed for some pupils?

What system would you invent where a pupil comes out of school showing they have reached a baseline ability (in this case measured by GCSE pass) in core skills needed for the workplace so that employers know they have the capability?

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 15:22

Teen - your child was caught in a system that required those behaviors of her, but they are fundamentally flawed behaviors, a reaction to a dysfunctional system.

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 15:20

The mark scheme business encourages exam candidates to focus on earning marks as opposed to mastering skills and content. This isn’t the candidates’ fault (they are entirely innocent victims in the whole process and just do what the system requires of them).

goodbyestranger · 02/07/2018 15:19

I have to say too that the GCSEs that DD4 has just sat seem to have provided her with a far better education than her siblings' old style GCSEs. But then, she's able, and I can see real problems for those DC at the other end of the scale.

TeenTimesTwo · 02/07/2018 15:18

err. No I can't.

I we hadn't strategized for DD1 she would have failed English Language GCSE, and failed History. As it was, we dropped History and she passed English Language.

To a lesser extent. DD2 y8 just had exams. We prioritised revision time on core subjects Maths, Science and English. I think that was the right thing to do as she struggles academically and projecting forward she doesn't have any confident pass projections for them. I think time on them is more beneficial to trying to learn French (when her English spelling and grammar are dodgy).

I think fussing between 6 & 7 or 8 & 9 is a bit pointless, but when it comes to passing 5 GCSE incl English Maths & Science then knowing whether you need to focus and drop something else is very beneficial.

goodbyestranger · 02/07/2018 15:17

I can't recall ever having a teacher discussing a mark scheme at either O or A level. It literally was just that: syllabus and question type. I'm amazed at all this mark scheme stuff that my DC seem to know; it's a totally different world and I'm not sure what it does that's so beneficial, in terms of learning.

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 15:11

Teen - can’t you see that all this time spent strategizing, with some kind of virtual Excel spreadsheet in the children’s heads, is exactly what urgently needs to stop?

TeenTimesTwo · 02/07/2018 15:05

user I'm not a teacher, but I disagree.

It may be true if all you are sitting is maths, but when a pupil is doing 8-10 subjects they need to prioritise time and focus.

If they are told there is a risk of failing maths then they need to spend extra time on that, even if it at the expense of dropping from a 7 to a 5 for History. However if the teacher says they are a 5/6, then they can just steadily work on the maths and use the extra effort for another subject. Similar for prioritising English. Better a 4 in English and a 3 for Textiles than a 3 for English and a 4 for Textiles.

Plus if I have a 4-6 grade DD in maths, I want her teacher to be very much on the ball as to which tier to take. I would want that teacher to take previous years of experience into account when deciding or recommending.

goodbyestranger · 02/07/2018 15:04

Wholeheartedly agree user1499173618. I've had DC taking GCSEs at regular intervals since 2006 and haven't any problem switching over to the concept of 9-1. For DD4, the old system is of no consequence whatsoever - exactly as you say, all she's needed to do is try to master the syllabus and question types. A* etc are history, and have never crossed her radar - no need.

noblegiraffe · 02/07/2018 14:57

user As a teacher, you really do. It’s ridiculous to suggest that all DC need to do is crack on with the work with no idea of where they’re headed.

OP posts:
user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 14:41

One of the good reasons for changing examination systems is to turn the page on excessive examination strategising (by both schools and pupils) to force a return to emphasis on content.

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 14:38

The only question DC need to ask themselves is which 9-1 GCSEs they need as prerequisites for the A-level courses they want to do. They then need to work hard and to stop fretting about examination strategising (grade boundaries) and actually master the syllabus and question types.

user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 14:35

No noble, you really don’t.

noblegiraffe · 02/07/2018 14:33

Of course you have to look at the new system in relation to the old. Am I going to pass? Dunno. How does that a pass relate to a C? Dunno. What do you need to do A-level? Dunno. Should I sit Foundation or Higher? Dunno. Do you think I’ll need to resit? Dunno.

When there are no grade boundaries or meaningful standards published, the only way to understand the new system is by comparison to the old.

OP posts:
user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 14:28

noble - you are framing the new system in terms of the old (changes in tiering, extra grades at the top, fewer at the bottom...). You need to stop making comparisons, which are terribly confusing and utterly pointless, and forget about the old system. Just look at the new system. Of course it doesn’t have the benefit of teachers skilled in its delivery, but that’s the same for all children apart from those in top public schools who can choose to carry in delivering iGCSE until there is more hindsight and practice with the new 9-1.

noblegiraffe · 02/07/2018 14:20

Oh come on that’s just not true. Formulas, pegging, two pass grades, unclear resit requirements, changes in tiering, extra grades at the top, fewer at the bottom...

I had to explain to a bright kid the other day that while it was top 3%ish to get a 9 in maths, it was more like top 10-15% to get a 9 in triple science. It really isn’t obvious.

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user1499173618 · 02/07/2018 13:44

I agree, goodbye. I actually think the new system is a lot less confusing than the old system. What confuses people is when they can’t let go of the old system and keep trying to use the old frame of reference to grasp the new.

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