New research: number to get straight 9s could be as low as 200

yy bubbles, sixth forms need to be flexible, but that works best if you already taught the student...

FWIW if we take the sample of the school I taught in plus the school DD goes to, approx 500 students, no one got three 9s, no one at all, never mind 9 x 9s! percentage wise I think there were about 12 grade 9s, out of a possible 1500 (only three subjects got a number of course) so that's a good deal less than 1% ... tiny sample, yes, but quite interesting.

I think sixth forms might find that they need to be a bit flexible about required entry grades.

I’m not sure I agree that schools should demand certain grades for A levels this year in quite the same way. If it’s not known if 56% in German is a 5, 6 or a 7, it doesn’t matter if the school offers A level places on the % achieved and the quality of work done by the student pre exam. As the grade boundaries may be different for each subject, then the grade requirements or percentage requirements can be tweaked accordingly. Surely schools can look at pupils results, previous work and, together with knowing the pupil, can make reasonable offers to students who wish to do A levels?

If a student was thought to be good enough and the teacher thought they would get a 7, but they only ended up with a 5, of course a school can still take them if they tweak their requirements. Flexibility is the key surely?

Yes it really isn't difficult. They aren't all clones after all. So the suggestion seems to be that no top grades should be predicted even for those who are capable of top grades (assuming fair conditions on the day) in case some of those - almost certainly the minority, in the scheme of things - feel stressed by the perceived expectation.

While I agree an 8+ would suffice perfectly well, since we don't seem to have that practice at the moment, I think the solution lies in trying to understand and manage the stress of the minority rather than a dictat ordering wholesale dumbing down. After all, some may well gain confidence through a prediction of 9, and achieve where they might not otherwise have done, precisely because of that confidence.

Seem clear to me.
Some pupils predicted all 9s will take it with a pinch of salt.

However some other pupils predicted all 9s will stress themselves out trying to achieve it and will feel a failure if they get an 8 for anything.
Teachers at some schools may also get told off for not predicting any 9s in a top set, but also if they predict 9s and then they aren't achieved.

No pupil needs all 9s (whereas some need 7s for A levels, or 4s or whatever for other courses). But stress can still be self induced or 'encouraged' by OTT targets.

Ok so your reasoning now noble is that those DC predicted all 9s (the subject of the thread) are not under stress because they don't need the grades they just want them. I'd thought you'd previously said those DC were under enormous stress - apologies.

Children might want or even need high grades but if they are working at a level 6 and for whatever reason in the exam, they get lucky and get a 7/8+ (maybe a mark scheme question came up) then they move forward in life without the knowledge of their subject to perform at the level their grade level indicates.

Surly its not in children's interests to get lucky in an exam, its setting them up for failure.

Ah someone we know is in Cardiff tomorrow to help sort this lot out for the AS papers. It is a challenge this year.

noble you're tying yourself in knots. Not a single student in the entire country needs all 9s. Give me an instance of a need for all 9s! Even the most academically snooty of Oxbridge or Ivy League colleges on the most competitive courses won't be insisting on all 9s and I'm struggling to think of any other need - as opposed to want - for all 9s. Completely batshit parents I suppose might be one possible need, if they've told the DC they won't be able to bear anything less than all 9s, but I'd suggest there might be better ways to deal with that type of batshit than trying to satisfy some crazed competitive urge on the part of people with a duty of care who should know better. Absolutely no DC needs all 9s. Hence the bonus idea.

noble of course she'd like all 9s. Why would a DC predicted 9s not want 9s . She's just realistic, in great part because of all the very widespread comment about how only a tiny number of DC will get all 9s. Much worse to be predicted all A (as a number of my older DC were) when you know a couple of thousand pupils will get straight A. That sounds a lot (in fact it isn't, but it's 10 times more than the numbers predicted to get all 9s).

Although I concede that she is fortunate objectively, in that fate has thrown her a good card on the academic ability front. But there's more to life and fortune than academic ability of course.

noble I can't quite get my head around that sort of statement about stress. There's no reason at all why DD4 shouldn't feel the same stress as others in the category. She's exactly the category where so many people are saying the stress must be unimaginable and that it's unforgivable etc. Now you say she's all right Jack but it's stressful for everyone except DD4, for some unaccountable reason. It's just everybody else in that category who is a victim of top predictions for these exams. But not DD4. In fact I dare say a fair few of these bright DC are bright enough to work out that luck on the day plays such a big part in performance that actually, no point stressing even if MN gurus insist they should.

Just throwing my 2 cents in, DC just finished GCSE state school exams (hoping for at least 5, 6's and some 7's), never got the feeling from school of much stress or anxiety. One teacher cocked up a subject and they had to put in extra resources to get course completed but everything else seemed smooth.
The UK seems to have a weird perspective, they focus on the students worst subjects. Why is that? is seems self defeating, doesn't a student switch off always practising their worse most hated stuff. I am used to focusing on the strongest subjects, success breeds success and seems to produce better results in every subject.
Its also weird about these mark schemes, why are they even a thing. Learn the subject FFS, if all you do is learn scripted answers then you will have grades above your actual ability.

I have found the 9-1 system quite easy to understand. The focus on grade boundaries seems mental, why are they even public. You get a result, teacher can appeal but teaching to the test does not produce knowledgeable pupils.

My DC might or might not get grades but we will worry that when it happens, why stress children before it actually happens.

I doubt if many year 11 teachers were rejoicing this year User. "Miss I got 56% in my German mock, what grade is that?" Me: "i honestly do not know. My best guess is 5-7"

You may say we shouldn't be obsessed with targets but if you are thinking of German a level, 5 or 7 makes a big difference.

Yy to teen as well; my dd last year wanted to focus on English, she was happy her maths was good enough so she could. She ended up with 996 which was fine; but she got the 9s cos she knew she could afford to. If no one could/would tell her she was an easy 6-7-8 in maths she would have had to spend more time on that as she needed a 5. For her, not intending to go on with maths, time spent gaining a 7-8 would have been wasted as I imagine her valuable (to her) English grade would have fallen.

That’s exactly what’s happened with Dd & science bible. Was really interested in taking biology A level but following some very low mock exam/sample paper scores she’s decided she’s rubbish at sciences& is going to take essay subjects instead.

I do think it's important for schools NOT to be predicting all 9s.

I have some friends with children at a school who IS predicting their top set to get all 9s. I find it a dangerous strategy, as the children will feel they have failed if they get 8s!! Especially as they only have a years' data to go on.

My DD's school is taking a more conservative approach and predicting a max 8 grade. That doesn't mean they won't push the children who are capable, but they are saying to them that if they get a 9 is a bonus and they have done exceptionally well. We had all this explained a parents' evening.

But why should it be stressful for either group noble? Surely it's been less stressful, not more? I don't feel any particular sense of stress from DD and none which was obvious from her teachers. Many seemed to positively enjoy teaching the new specs, or at least said they did. No long term sickness from staff at her school either this year, or last.

They probably won’t, as the target culture is so impossibly embedded in the system/mindset. But rejoice at this year when only syllabus and question type were available! So much healthier.

It’s the system that creates/doesn’t create a culture of targets. There is no intrinsic need and targets have an awful lot of negative externalities.