The league tables are out - let's talk Progress 8

@Gileswithachainsaw
Having seen this thread I've just looked at our local school for updated information
There is none.
Why wouldn't the progress 8 breakdown be published?
Do you mean your local school isn't on this site? www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk

Yes - Shame Ds had to go through 2 hellish years first before he could start in Year 9 but I'm so glad.

definitely looks like you made the right choice then alexander!

Yes Piggy 57% get Grade 4 or above. Low attainers 20%, Middle 42% High 80%

The school Ds does go it (it's a 13 plus school in a middle school area so they have less time with the kids) does much better with middle & high attainers.

Low - 3% Grade 5 - 5% Grade 4
Middle - 17% Grade 5 - 52% Grade 4
High - 87% Grade 5 - 98% Grade 4

My DC's school has a lower Att8 but higher P8 than other local schools. Because its cohort is significantly lower achieving on entry. However, it also has a higher 5+ in Maths and English than the schools with a higher Att8, but lower P8.

We have 8 local secondary schools.

The range in year group sizes from 140-300.

I have looked at all progress 8 scores.

The 2 schools who usually under perform (high levels of deprivation and forces children) have progress 8 of -0.7. Only one of those made the 'worst schools list'.
The ones who generally do well and have a very mixed intake have progress 8 of 0,0.1 and 0.2. Interestingly the one with 0.2 has the lowest attainment 8 of the 3! (Why?!)
Another school had -0.1 but that's usually where they are. Much improved school and those who want to do well generally do iyswim?
The other 2 schools seem to have plummeted. One has above average progress 8 last year and now is -0.3 and week below average and the other is -0.1 and below average. The both have attainment 8 in low 40's. Both have more high achievers entering than low/middle combined.

Can anyone explain why this might be? Why do some schools drop when others tend to remain fairly static? (Using data for past few years with a-c etc).
The cohort type and numbers of EAL, PP and Sen have remained pretty much same in each school year in year.

The confidence level should also be -0.35 to-0.07.

Sorry yes -0.21.

Looking a bit more it seems 18% of prior middle attainers got grade 5 or above in maths/English & 75% higher attainers. My DS started as a middle attainers.

Should that be -0.21?

I’ve found a breakdown but can someone please advise me how to make sense of the figures given?

My DC’s school result is well below average at 0.21 with confidence interval as 0.35-0.07.

I can’t find anymore information than this - where do I need to look
for a further breakdown as mentioned above?

It's a load of bloody rubbish.

My first school (I'm a teacher) comes out really well on progress. This is because it's in a nice leafy middle class area with the added bonus of having a failing middle school feeding into it. Really bright kids with middle class parents and falsely low KS2 Sat results = off the scale for progress.

My second school looks really bad. This is because the primary schools are shit hot with SATS (and there are many rumours of cheating). However, many of the kids are from quite disadvantaged backgrounds and when it comes to revising for GCSEs there's no help/tutoring etc.

In my opinion - the teaching is better at the second school.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

... and then further down the table for the school you can see the %. There's a 9% gap at 5 and above for maths and English but at 4 and above it is only 2 %. Science has the lowest of the reported subjects but that's also the national picture.

You can get the P8 score for the subjects separately on the tables. For my school it is 0.11 for English and -0.02 for maths.

alexander have you looked to see what your local school got for grade 4+ (the ultimate hidden stat!). My school got 50% for En/ma at 5+ and 77 for 4+ !

Is there anywhere that shows separate English and Maths results? I know our school did catastrophically at Maths- if would be good to see how they did in English.

Yes,there’s that too.

Although the combination of negative scores for children with SEN and positive score for EAL makes me think there might be something else going on.

Either way, I think it shows that you can’t just look at the figures without taking account of the cohort. 0.3 in a school with a large number of EAL is not really the same as 0.3 in a school with few EAL children but an above average number with SEN.

Only 9% of middle attainers got Grade 5.

Progress 8 score and confidence interval

LOW 0.38 (-0.38. -1.5)
MIDDLE -0.54 (-0.91 to -0.17)
HIGH -1.09 (-1.45 to -0.73)

P.S. glad you found my chart useful.

EAL do well for various reasons but some of them are:

1. The often score less well in the KS2 English (reading) tests but they are on more accelerated trajectory that means once they nail the language barrier, they get good results relative to their depressed starting point.

1. They often take a GCSE in their other language(s), which is a fairly easy top grade.

1. Work ethic and culture concerning education and making the most of the opportunity.

Yep, that's inexcusable.

And for a school that had 10 low attainers, 44 middle & 42 higher attainers it makes it even worse.