Y10 child predicted mostly grade 9s for gcse

Or on the other hand they think the predictions of 9s are fair, and have enough experience to find it plausible!

I don't think my own DD cares that much about 8s or 9s and I certainly don't; 8s will be just fine.

And I don't think A*s were "handed out" either- I think places like Mumsnet give a pretty skewed impression of grade distribution.......

There is no point to the new system if grade 9s are handed out as A*s were before. And the reason for the 1-9 system is that if too many get a 9, then there will be a 10. The point is to differentiate between the excellent and the excellent +.

I think schools predicting 9s (unless for Maths) are setting a lot of pupils up for disappointment come results day. A lot of MNetters firmly believe their dds are going to be the ones leaping in the air with swishy hair brandishing their full house of 9s. They have to stop thinking of things in "old money" and get with the new system.

So no one knows where the grade boundaries will be as they are set after the exams are taken. Always have been.
If no one scores higher than 70% then that will be a 9. So the top 2% will get a 9 (regardless how low their score is). The next 9% an 8 and so on. The only certainty we have is that the same % of students who got an A last year will get 7+ and the same girl a C & 5 (or 4 depending on the mood of the DoE).
My own DD is predicted 9s which I find annoying as we don't know what they are and the advice keeps changing. I've looked at Unis and most don't seem to be differentiating between 8 & 9.

I suppose this year's English and Maths results will give us a better idea of where the boundaries will be on grade 9's. However, there always tends to be some rogue questions/difficult exam paper most year's. My niece took an English GCSE paper a few years back where the results were all a lot lower than projected - this resulted in her getting 9 A*'s and an A - yet English had been such a strong subject for her....so in my opinion the children getting all 9's will be very few because I dare say there will be a few rogue questions/difficult exam questions floating around in one or more of the exam papers - which you cant prepare even brightest of children for ....

Just as a matter of interest my other niece achieved an A* Distinction in Maths a few years back - do we know what % of children achieve this level - may give some idea of grade 9'.s

Some schools have finished the syllabus for maths already in Y10. Ours has and DD's set is doing some other maths at the moment and then they'll revert to practice questions sometime next year.

Oh I thought you meant a vanity entry noble ie playing the league tables as opposed to it being an imperative. Oh well, I don't see it being an issue. If he's in the correct year group it's not a big deal. He's entitled to a 9, he's not taking it away from another DC. I thought you meant a Y12 or 13 :)

I think it's quite normal students to have the bulk of their grades around one or two levels

An A is not the equivalent of a level 9. Level 9 is a 'super grade' and more like a A*. So it really is the top of the top.

I read that in maths presently 5% get get A* gcse, while only 3% will get a level 9 gcse.

If a student who got an A* in maths years ago who has been studying higher level maths since doesn't get a 9, then that suggests that the system is flawed. If 9s don't distinguish between the good and the great but merely the unlucky and lucky great then they'd need to go back to the drawing board.

It will be interesting to see where the grade boundary falls for this reason.

But that child could still make errors. I think in maths it will be down to who doesn't make errors on all three papers. My dd always comes out of maths exams knowing what mark she has got & where she made the mistakes! She would have been one predicted a 9 btw.

If they don't enter, then they count as a fail for the school league tables. Simples.

Don't enter him then, simples.

Maths is the one GCSE where I think a teacher could confidently predict a 9 for the odd child

We've got a student who sat their maths GCSE years ago who will be sitting the new GCSE as well because we need them to for the league tables. They'll get a 9, no worries.
I wonder how many kids there are across the country like them who'll be entered to get their 9, and how many 9s they'll snaffle from the kids who are sitting it first time around.

Same as jamrock. My DD is Y10 and predicted almost all 9s across ten subjects (there's a rogue 8 in there too). These are her projected grades, not target grades which are listed separately. Her parents' meeting was on Thursday and although her teachers are giving the usual caveats about the new exams they seem pretty comfortable with their projections given her current performance. I'd say she's likely to be in the top 2% and she's a very strong all rounder. That's probably what the kid in the OP is. Someone's going to hit plenty of 9s, so why not those with those predictions? .

When scores need to be as high as they are likely to be to get a 9, there is also a bigger impact of chance/luck.

I was always been the kid who got full grade As for everything with minimal effort. I am now finishing training to be a science teacher. My subject knowledge is pretty good for GCSE. My understanding of how to answer exam questions is also pretty good.

But if you sat me or most of the teachers I know, down with 20 science papers we would NOT all get 100% across the board. There will always be a phrase, an emphasis you miss, or just a simple error somewhere. If this is true for us, then the most able student WILL be a couple of steps down - and that means a few marks down.

How many marks down do you have to be to drop from a 9 to an 8? We don't know, but it looks like not very many.

It is unfair to predict 9s across the board when the reality is that if you get all 8s you are an absolute star. If you get all 9s then you are certainly a star, but there will have been an element of chance involved.

We've had a prediction of grade 9s here but I've played it down as I think it's perhaps inaccurate but, more importantly, it's putting too much pressure on the students. Mine are told that they will get whatever grades they get and if they have done their best then that's fine whatever the grade.

Waffer Do you mean 4 or 5 kids getting a grade 9 in your subject in your career? Or we wouldn't see a kid getting more than 4 or 5 grade 9s?

Although how long is a teaching career these days? About 2 years I think.

I was told at an exam board meeting that, realistically, we wouldn't see more than 4 or 5 grade 9s in our whole teaching career.

Maths is the one GCSE where I think a teacher could confidently predict a 9 for the odd child -- the sort who, like a good friend of mine at school, could get 100% in any maths paper you threw at her and was doing university-level work from about 14. (We took the piss mercilessly on the one occasion she missed a mark).

But 9 for the lot? I'd give much for their crystal ball.

I don't think people will just assume their child will achieve their targets unless they are taking no notice of the grades they get in termly exams.

Giving kids who got a level 6 in their SATs a target of a 9 is bonkers. About 10% of kids get a level 6 in their maths SATs (this could be higher but some schools don't enter kids for the level 6 papers). Ofqual's latest figures estimate that 3% of kids will get a grade 9 in maths this summer.

I'm not sure what percentage get level 6 in English, I think it's much lower than maths, but only about 2% of kids will get a grade 9 in GCSE English.