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GCSE pass rate to drop by 23% in 2017

58 replies

noblegiraffe · 17/01/2016 11:26

Latest anaylsis suggests that the GCSE pass rate for the new GCSEs could drop by 23% to about 35%.
schoolsweek.co.uk/gcse-pass-rate-could-drop-23-under-new-reforms/

This is when the good pass rate is set at a '5' which is a high C/low B.

The government has fudged it by saying that a '4' will count as pass for entry to sixth form, so any student who gets a 4 will not need to resit maths and English post-16; they'll only be screwed in later years when they try to apply for jobs alongside those who did have to resit till they got a 5.

I know the new performance measures will be 'Progress 8', but I don't know whether schools will still be publishing their headline A*-C inc Maths and English figures and if so, whether it would be the 4 or 5 that counts. Anyone else know?

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RhodaBull · 18/01/2016 08:34

I have just been to a year 8 parents' evening, and, perhaps strangely given opinions on here, the teachers seemed rather enthusiastic about the new curriculum, particularly the French teacher who said she always thought the learning off by heart aspect of the old GCSE was ridiculous. The Maths teacher said that some of the maths was coming down from A Level, and that the questions would be more wordy. The English teacher said she liked the new books. This is in an ordinary comprehensive school.

sashh · 18/01/2016 06:59

In maths we are in the absolutely ridiculous situation of having to teach foundation kids to do trigonometry, without a calculator, by memorising the values of e.g. sin(60).

Back in the bad days of O Level and CSE my school offered O Level maths, CSE maths and CSE commercial arythmetic.

The reasoning was that CSE commercial arithmetic was what employers wanted not maths. I think to some extent that is true (obviously not for engineers or scientists) and a numeracy / arithmetic qualification would be a valid option.

Are you really saying that schools, presumably state ones at least, should deny a great book to children who can cope with it because some other children can't?

I don't teach English, but some of my GCSE students have a reading age of 8, the best way for them to improve (IMHO) is for them to enjoy reading and to do as much as possible, but are they going to do that when they cannot read every third word? Or if they can sound it out do not understand it?

pieceofpurplesky · 17/01/2016 23:45

Pique under the new system all pupils sit the same exam and have to study the same text - so whether you are expected a Level 9 or a Level 1 you will study the same.

Some pupils will be fine but an awful lot will not.

noblegiraffe · 17/01/2016 23:41

I know they don't teach the entire maths curriculum to all teens, Pique, however given that trig without a calculator by memorising values is on the foundation paper, any kid who wants a decent shot at the new pass grade (so your average kid, not your top setter) will be dragged through it.

Previously, memorising these trig values was on further maths GCSE only. It wasn't even on A-level.

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drivinmecrazy · 17/01/2016 23:37

Isn't it a terrible state of affairs that we have had teachers and parents on this thread all saying the same thing, that basically a fair education is going to become a rarity rather than the norm. I speak as a mum to children of different years and aspirations. Yet I fear for them both. I fear most when I hear that our children's educators are equally at a loss to understand and comprehend just what is expected.

PiqueABoo · 17/01/2016 23:33

@pieceofpurplesky

I'm confused then. Surely the great Victorian novel is supposed to be for the highers, not all teens?

They don't teach the entire maths curriculum to all teens. IIRC @ng once said that can be more granular than foundation v. higher e.g. some children might do the higher curriculum but only enough to get a grade B etc.

[Middling comp Y8 DD's English teacher recently told her and a few others to read Pride and Prejudice at home.]

pieceofpurplesky · 17/01/2016 23:20

My top set year tens have loved Jekyll and Hyde - from set 3 on not so much the language is complex and the narrative very long winded.

There is a wealth of amazing literature out there and the ones chosen are not the best for all children - my year 11 class are a bottom set predicted F/G grades - they have struggled with Of Mice and Men!. The current year 10s will all sit the same exam and have to study the same narrow range of books that do not take in the idea that all kids are different.

WhoTheFuckIsSimon · 17/01/2016 23:18

Ive got a Yr10 dc and it's worrying. School don't seem to have a clue. Though they have increased maths lessons per week.

noblegiraffe · 17/01/2016 23:17

I don't know anything about English texts but shouldn't everybody have a chance to study a great book that they can access?

In maths we are in the absolutely ridiculous situation of having to teach foundation kids to do trigonometry, without a calculator, by memorising the values of e.g. sin(60).

Totally inappropriate and in no way what employers were thinking about when they said they wanted kids to be more numerate.

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pieceofpurplesky · 17/01/2016 23:15

No pique hence the fact I said 'not all teens'

PiqueABoo · 17/01/2016 23:04

"The books and poems chosen show an antiquated and elitist attitude to a subject I love. ... great books but not for all teens."

Are you really saying that schools, presumably state ones at least, should deny a great book to children who can cope with it because some other children can't?

drivinmecrazy · 17/01/2016 22:47

Gosh! The more I read the more I weep! I feel as though DD2 is being set up to fail. I don't expect a free pass or any allowances made (for my late August baby who loves school but loathes learning ) but I do hope for her to have fair access to education . Not sure that's really going to be the case if things carry on in the direction they are going. I'm really struggling with the thought of the next few years.

Devilishpyjamas · 17/01/2016 21:31

Year 9 here - seems to me no-one knows what they're doing.

Oh and a year 6. Facebook had some 'example style' SATS questions (English). Were they for real? They were dreadful - pointless testing of obscure points of grammar. Even latin isn't taught in that way now. It reminded me of English teaching in japan 20 years ago (not a compliment - students didn't learn to speak a sensible word of English under that system).

pieceofpurplesky · 17/01/2016 21:25

I am teaching the new system. Year 10 English. You would be more scared if on the inside! No grade boundaries, limited information, lack of examples etc. It's like driving a car with no knowledge of road safety.

At least when everyone else joins in next year (apart from maths) the system should be in place a bit more but I doubt it.
It scares me that so little thought is put in to the education of all pupils rather than just implementing a system that stretches the top few.

The books and poems chosen show an antiquated and elitist attitude to a subject I love. I want to share that and develop pupils who love to read. Sadly they don't trust teachers to select books that actually appeal to the children they teach. Jekyll and Hyde? Pride and Prejudice - great books but not for all teens.

noblegiraffe · 17/01/2016 21:01

bojo the accepting the 4 for the first couple of cohorts is a fudge. The pass grade is set at a 5. They will accept a 4 for the first couple of cohorts in terms of not having to resit in sixth form because they know that colleges would be overwhelmed with resit students (they are already overwhelmed, tbh and a 23% increase would be completely unmanageable). They aren't accepting the 4 because they think it's acceptable, but because they know they've bodged the introduction of the new standards, lots of students will fail to meet them, and they aren't prepared to deal with the consequences of that failure properly.

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stampedingthefields · 17/01/2016 20:41

I don't feel there is anything wrong in demanding academic qualifications are made more academic.

However, there also needs to be a viable alternative for those unable to access the academic curriculum.

bojorojo · 17/01/2016 20:37

The Sunday Times articles says that Michael Wilshaw believes that grades 5-9 will be "world class", so a 4 is not really a fudge. It is a respectable result. David Kaws wants 8 GCSEs to be the measure of success against which schools are measured. However that suggestion has not been taken up yet.

BTECs are a reasonable route into work for young people who cannot do A levels and there are also be apprenceships, which need beefing up in my view. I feel it is really difficult for the young people just coming up to GCSEs as there are so many unknowns. However, I think most know change was overdue.

noblegiraffe · 17/01/2016 19:57

ender you need to tell that to the government who have introduced compulsory retakes for maths and English GCSEs.

Retakes mostly stopped a couple of years ago, when it was decided that only the first attempt would count for league tables, and modules were scrapped. This isn't about that, that was pretty much already sorted.

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noblegiraffe · 17/01/2016 19:50

cresset Just because you saw Pascal's triangle in Y8 (and many will these days too, it has lots of lovely patterns) it doesn't mean that you were doing the same maths with it in Y8 as your DS in Y12 (probably binomial theorem).

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enderwoman · 17/01/2016 19:47

I agree that the constant retaking of GCSEs culture had to stop. It really devalues how serious GCSE exams are if you can retake multiple times.

enderwoman · 17/01/2016 19:44

I think it's fine to push academic children but what about children at the other end? The children who won't make the grade need qualifications or experience that will help them in life especially as they need to be in education or training until 18. I don't know if BTECs are acceptable or varied enough as my children will probably be following the GCSE/A level route. Can they cope with this theoretical 20% rise in applicants who will switch from GCSE ? I assume that some children struggle with BTECs. What do they do until 18?

cressetmama · 17/01/2016 19:37

GCSE have been downtuned and grades inflated for so many years that it will take ages for standards to rise. We saw this recently when I looked at DS's A level maths book and went, I recognise that (Fibonnacci triangle) from about Y8 O level. I only got a grade 6 at the second attempt!

noblegiraffe · 17/01/2016 17:57

I don't think anyone would disagree with that, Bolognese.

This, however, is not pushing up standards, this is rushing through a poorly-thought out and untested exam system and failing a cohort of children.

I expect when future cohorts do better the government will claim a success in 'pushing up standards' when in fact a lot of improved results will be down to teachers having enough information and time to teach the new syllabus properly.

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Bolognese · 17/01/2016 17:38

Its definitely a good idea to try and push up standards.

enderwoman · 17/01/2016 16:20

I have a y10 and y8. It's just a fucking joke. Changes to the curriculum should be applicable to Reception and below.

My y8 has been picking GCSE options and will end up with fewer GCSEs than my y10. I'm guessing that's because some subjects will require more slots of teaching now that they are harder.

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