Bright child, good school, Year 11, got to choose A Levels. Tell me - 3 or 4?

with AS they could rise above it but with A2 grade predictions the same type of DCs can also rise above it. The schools that help DCs to achieve their potential with good AS results will also deliver good A2 results. Why are AS levels more helpful than predicted grades?

LOL
my kids are fine
but the kids that DH works with are not
and thus nor is the UK

you should read the Economist more : their views on selective schools have changed over the years

Oh TP do stop being so doom laden. You sound like Frankie Howard on Up Pompeii.

AS levels versus linear do not favour selective versus non selective
I'd love to think so
but the schools who are borderline will be pushed back over the edge
unless the DfE allows HUGE amounts of VA to be included then grade predictions will revert by 20 years

round here all the schools stop at 16 and then its colleges
so if the school lacks ambition, the kids are screwed
with AS they could rise above it
without VA they are again screwed

and the selective and private schools will get back to where they were when I went to UNI
not good for the UK or the world

Also, simply wringing hands isn't an especially productive approach.

Talkin all intelligent folks involved in education have a very good comprehension thanks.

Talkin those DCs will be predicted very good A2 grades by their schools, some over optimistically. They will have had time to develop their potential by the start of year 13 and receive offers based on those predicted grades with school context and some will achieve those grades and therefore offers. The very competitive courses will interview and pretest as many are already doing, even in the case of Cambridge some colleges are doing it.
AS levels versus linear do not favour selective versus non selective

It will cost Cambridge more money to administer pretestd which is why they were attached to AS levels. All the competitive universities have had to deal with predicted grades from the small sector of IB and preUs, now they will just have to scale up the process.
Which is exactly the problem

Top200 Unis want to pick the best of the best of : they have used UMS for it in recent years
with that taken away, what chance do kids from borderline schools who might turn out to be shit hot students have ?

folks who have put multiple kids through selective schools really have no comprehension of where the problem lies

nonnomnom I really don't see that my not being massively exercised about the A Level changes makes me an 'outlier'. I could just as well say that you were an outlier since no-one I know is dissolving with angst. I haven't said it's been 'handled well' either but I do see various options that make sense for different DCs. The one out of all of them which doesn't seem to me to make sense is doing a new style AS as well as a linear A2 in that same subject. I think the schools which are opting for that are simply being too cautious and conservative and I doubt it will serve the interests of the DC particularly well. I actually quite like the direction of travel though, even if the road does have a few bumps.

My ds is in y11. His selective grammar school said 3 A levels. They will in exceptional circumstances allow 4.
This message has been passed to us furing 6th form open evening few weeks ago and akso furing parents info evening in September.

My dd is in y13 in another selective grammar school.
As I said in her school EPQ wasn't encouraged. She decided against it as she is already doing History.
Better to have more time preparing for 3 subjects than 4.
More free periods and more time to study for exams.
They are doing lots and lots past papers. If your child does 4 subjects they have considerably less time for home study. Just think 25% vs 33% .

They also go to many birthday parties and out with friends.

I wouldn't want her to give up on social life.
Her Exeter and Durham offers are based on 3 subjects (and 2 others too, still waiting for the last one). She had to have sufficient predicted to get thise offers.

I can't imagine unis changing their system overnight expecting 4 instead of 3 subjects for next cohorts. They would be discriminating against all mature students snd those applying after gap year etc.

I am genuinely unsure why people are so attached to AS levels and the frequency of exams of that system. I suspect like Molio that those people just don't like the idea of change rather than actually like the idea of lots more exams. It will cost Cambridge more money to administer pretestd which is why they were attached to AS levels. All the competitive universities have had to deal with predicted grades from the small sector of IB and preUs, now they will just have to scale up the process.

In the schools I know the teachers of Y12s are just getting on with teaching their subjects the best they can with the information they have. It should be all about teaching their subjects, not preparing for exam technique most of year s 11 to 13. The number of A levels taken will obviously depend on funding and ability but universities will find ways to assess ability that are not dependent on number of AS levels and A levels taken.

I did 4 including general studies. When I went to uni my ucas points totally discounted my lowest a level grade. Not sure if that's still a thing but worth looking into.

I think I would have failed badly doing 4 full subjects (general studies was pretty much just turn up and sit an exam) and I was a B grade student at GCSE.

Cross post now with disquisitiones. Exactly, the crucial point is that they aren't co-teachable and although Cambridge sent out a letter to HTs before the election trying to persuade them to still do ASs, the university obviously now sees that that almost certainly won't happen. So that's Cambridge's problem (but I'm sure they're clever enough to resolve it), but it's not really a problem for the kids.

I'm getting very behind with the posts here Figment! Threenew linear A2s is a good offer for plenty of kids. Three plus an AS in a different subject is a good option also. Three plus the EPQ is fine. Four is there too for those who can manage it. But trying to do a new style AS in a subject while also doing the same subject as a new linear A2 is daft, in my opinion. But it's just my opinion, obviously. So I don't see a problem.

Universities are geared up to offers based on AS and UMS.

No, the vast majority of university courses do not base offers on AS and UMS (as the poster knows). For most courses, provided that candidates have reasonable GCSE and AS results and predictions in line with the required grades, they receive an offer. Decisions are made by administrators rather than academics. For these courses predicted grades will suffice; candidates are currently not rejected just because their AS scores or predictions are a grade or so below the required A2 grades, so possible errors in predicted grades won't particularly worry universities.

A small number of over-subscribed university courses interview. Of these many don't in any case use AS UMS as a significant factor in deciding whether to interview; Oxford uses its own pretests and medical schools use a range of factors including BMAT etc.

A small fraction of over-subscribed courses use AS UMS heavily in deciding whether to interview (mostly Cambridge courses). The latter courses will most likely move to pretests (this is decided in some subjects and the Cambridge board is drafting specifications) but these pretests will affect only a tiny fraction of students entering university. I think Cambridge pretty much accepts that they cannot force schools to do AS when they are not co-teachable.

Another cross post! (I'm cooking :)).

I'm just not going to despair Talkin, sorry. I think it's all fine.

Molio the issue seems to be that there is movement by some schools towards 4 A levels - including (IMHO) a half baked compromise which involves dropping one at some point if things are not going to plan, even though the A2 course load hasn't changed.

Some schools are trying to spin this as a 'good thing' because it widens children's' options - and I can absolutely see that it is sensible for heads to try to salvage some sort of coherent and optimistic individual school policy out of this shambles.

However if universities still expect A*AA-AAB as the standard offer for the sorts of humanities courses a lot of the posters on this thread are presumably hoping for for their children, then it seems to me that encouraging children to study 4 A levels is likely to be letting a lot of them down. As an earlier poster said, AABB will not be good enough for many universities, such as Durham, Exeter, etc. My experience is only in English however!

Another cross post. Talkin I think you like to slag off everything to do with change though. Change is sometimes good, you just need to work through it.

Let the universities worry about it.
What about the employers and the colleges and the rest of the real world ....
the numbers going to Uni are going to drop back to under 1/3 after all

Cross post Talkin but no, I just think some people react hysterically when any change is announced. It seems fine to me anyhow and I'm not completely oblivious to how this stuff works. My Y12 is just getting on with three subjects where he'll do an old style AS in the summer and the two subjects where he'll do mocks and get a predicted grade off those. It's not a big deal. Let the universities worry about it.

Universities will have to work with the material they get and politically they can't afford to discriminate.
You just made me snort my Martini

I'm not a Tory voter and I don't see a particular mess and I'm certainly not in despair although I am a Y12 not Y11 parent. But actually I also don't see why Y11 are especially affected - Y12 are a bit messier, if anything.

There's no need to 'cover all eventualities'. Universities will have to work with the material they get and politically they can't afford to discriminate. I really don't see the problem with just going with the flow. The new ASs aren't co-teachable with the new A2s and disrupt the teaching of the new linear qualifications, so surely the most sensible thing is to do the new linear A2s without ASs in the subjects where they exist and the old style ASs in subjects where they still exist. I'm not getting wrapped around the axle anyhow, it all seems fine.

Molio
Universities are geared up to offers based on AS and UMS
that rug just got pulled

So, will they base on mocks?
or will they still want AS?
or will they interview?

Do schools do AS even though it does not count to A2?
or do they do A2 only and hope that Unis do not want AS?
And what if some do and some do not?

And what happens to the under resourced schools who struggle to get a few kids into RG each year?
or what happens to the schools with only 60 kids per year at 6th so have to cover all bases with limited resources?

Its an Aintree of hedges and hurdles
and the muppets at the DfE do not care or understand