A level 'aspiration' grades

It sounds like the system we use. It is somewhat crude, and by no means perfect, but we find at the start it helps to give a ball park figure until the real predicted grades can start (but even they can be somewhat random!)

Ours takes the GCSE grades of the student and converts it to a score (mostly As would be around 7) and then it would look at past Students with that score and say what % got an A / B / C etc... This does vary by subject so one of my subjects tends to get much lower scores than the other. But that is the subject, the % of As etc is lower than the other!

So it's not so much a predicted grade, as a performance indicator of previous students as a statistical likelihood.

It has its limitations and it is a somewhat crude indicator (for example, it doesn't account for how hard the students work...) I do find it can be useful to guide those parents who perhaps have under / over expectations.

How many hours is she volunteering each week because there is no need to do more than a couple (or less). Think how she will refer to it on her PS? Is she going to list her hours or just give a generic 'I've been volunteering once a week for the last year....' The Harper Adams website seems to be clear about what they expect of applicants. It may be that she won't be credited anything by doing more than what's asked. ie applicants will either pass or fail the requirement to do voluntary work. Iyswim

I think it seems very early to be predicting grades surely it's more of a suggestion at this stage?

My youngest DD got very stressed with her Alevels. Retrospectively we wondered if she would have been better to take a softer more coursework based third A'level such as photography. She would have coped with the heavy workload of such an A'level and would have welcomed having fewer exams at the end of A'levels.

I had a look at the Entrance requirements. It looks like she has to get a B not a B/C in her third non science A level.

Have you considered whether she could do an Extended Project Qualification instead of the fourth A level? She could then get some UCAS points and could choose a subject relating to what she wants to do.

Irianofway IMO she has three alternatives to optimise the chance of getting her grades without being too stressed. She could either reduce the volunteering during term time (as previously suggested) to say half a day per weekend and make-up in the holidays or reduce to three A levels possibly with something like an EPQ which she could focus on after her AS levels or decide to take a year out giving more time for the experience and the benefit of applying with known A level grades.

Coulees she not do the volunteering in the holidays?

ALPs targets are set to meet not the performance of the average student with the same GCSE profile, but the top 25% nationally. They are meant to be on the high side.

ALPs predictions are usually on the high rather than low side!

well that hasn't been the experience with my DC, Noble. I guess if it is based on historical averages some predictions will be higher and some will be lower.

Which matters for applicants to universities that make offers based on A2 grades because...?

Because not all universities make offers based on A2, some of them ask for UCAS points and sometimes students don't make the grades they need and need a Plan B.

If it's any comfort, I think the vast majority of people who do A level maths and physics, - including those with A and A grades - find the jump incredibly hard at the start of 6th form. I know my dd is - she's been in tears a few times this term and she's the most laid back person I know with regards to work. She has put all* the things she normally does outside of school 'on hold' until half term, and has been going to bed about 8.30 most nights. Would 'suspending' the volunteering until after half term, or after Christmas help her? Even if it wasn't needed for the course, I do think they benefit, in the longer term, from doing stuff ouside of school / work, but maybe she just needs a month or two off now while she gets her head round things?

If not, she should take the AS because it will give her extra UCAS points.

Which matters for applicants to universities that make offers based on A2 grades because...?

They could be ALIS rather than ALPS?
When you say 'predicted' do you mean the teachers think that's what she'll get based on the way shes working so far? Or purely based on GCSE?
It's early days, and many Y12s are still adapting to the change of level required.

OP I actually agree that it's too early to drop a subject. Most students take 4 subjects at AS level then drop one and go on to do 3 A2s.

However, this year it changed and not all schools are doing AS levels so the first thing to check is whether your school is doing the A level as a straight two year course for all of her subjects.

If they are then I would let her drop one now as there is no advantage to continuing with it. If not, she should take the AS because it will give her extra UCAS points.

It just makes me wonder how anyone gets to university if someone with those grades at GCSE can't get any As at A-level

It's far too early to say your DD can't get any As at A-level whatever her GCSEs grades were. They've been in 6th form for less than half a term, so only have limited information to go on.

We've had these predictions DD is also predicted Bs - the school have stressed that these are a general prediction based on previous cohorts results of what of pupils with similar GCSEs got. Teachers at DDs school don't make firm predictions until after the AS results. They then set a teacher prediction based on the students work ethic and performance - which they give to UCAS.

ALPs predictions are usually on the high rather than low side! The annoying thing about ALPs is that it predicts the same grade for every A-level, so the maths prediction won't be based on her maths GCSE, but all her GCSEs.

It's way too early in the course to be making any actual predictions. Computer predictions for A-level are crap, you need to wait to hear what her teachers actually think, and they probably won't be able to predict until she has sat some exams (e.g. mocks in January).

It just makes me wonder how anyone gets to university if someone with those grades at GCSE can't get any As at A-level!

Most universities don't require A at A Level. Only on MN are AAA courses regarded as normal.

At my DC school they have a computer programme called ALPS that gives these weird predictions.I think is based on historic data of what results peope with the same set of GCSEs got at A level.

Hmm, then those predicted grades do seem a bit on the low side. I would email her tutor and ask for clarification on how they have reached those predictions.

Is your dd's college still doing AS levels? I know there seems to be complete confusion at the moment between colleges and universities about what future entry levels may be and how units will assess applicants without AS levels. Assuming your daughter has just started at college, what your dd is talking about giving up is an AS subject, not an A2 subject? I think the downside to that is that she will be expected to do 3 A2s so dropping one subject now gives her no wiggle room whatsoever with the other three. So if she gives up Physics and gets a C/D at AS in Maths she is going to find it very difficult to meet the entry requirements for the course, because she can't drop Maths and continue with Physics instead.

There is also the argument to be made that if she is struggling coping with the workload now, how will she fare two years hence at university? Obviously, there is lots of growing up to be done in the meantime but she needs to be sure that she can manage the work, while living away from home and doing her own catering, shopping and laundry.

About her predicted grades, did she get A* at GCSE in the subjects she is taking? It's a big step from GCSE to A level so it could well be that her teachers think Bs are genuinely her likely grade.

I've never got to grips with how the DDs school do A level predictions, but it's something to do with taking all the data for several years of what grades the people who did their combination of GCSEs then got a A level. Something automatically generated anyway, which they were all told to ignore, and the class teachers then set the target grades which were unofficial, but what they should actually be aiming at.

My DD got similar grades to yours at GCSE, and did Maths, Chem,Physics and Geography at 6th Form. Her plan was to drop Physics after AS, but in the end she carried on to A2 and dropped Geography instead. She got 4 As at AS Level.

She was also predicted a B initially in the first term, it seems the colleges don't want them to get over confident! DD ended up with A*AA..

DD struggled a bit with Physics, and we got her a tutor for an hour a week (term time only), which helped. A couple of the Physics teachers at her college were less than inspiring to be honest, so we felt it was necessary. Her tutor was actually a student 2 years above who was taking a gap year himself, so he knew the course and teachers (and wasn't too expensive).

If you can I would encourage her to stick with Physics until the end of the year, and then decide whether to continue with it for a second year. What does she want to study at University?