A level predicted grades

Religious Studies and Philosophy (in that order!)

ah predictions don`t schools love them. In the days before computers and statistics we could all rely on Rune Stones; tarot cards or Fortune tellers to see into the future.
and as stated above so many factors will influence the outcome of an exam - , hard work - the right questions- whether you are coming down with flu - exam nerves as well as if you did enough work .... and if all of that is not enough how about some quirk from the exam board and some rather erratic marking ( seen that one a few times)
And what about the predictions themselves which create an artificial ceiling to demotivate and limit some children.... ( which does help with a self fulfilling prophecy)

And to ice this ridiculous cake - teachers ( apologies to any teachers, as I actually think you are fab) who write them on UCAS forms like they were a god given certainty.. after all they have the reputation of their Institution to think about ! ( not to mention performance related pay and the endless stress of outcome measures to determine how effective teaching is)
I know some will argue it is all professional judgement and based on performance ... but students get an AS prediction based GCSEs and these are predicted from CATs score/ Key Stage 2. An endless stream of low predictions influences teacher and pupil perceptions.. here is a clever student... here is not so clever student... any doubts look at the wealth of studies on the impact of teacher expectation on student performance.

As I said a self fulfilling prophecy ... you cannot second guess the future
Maybe we should abandon the whole predict anything and do everything once results are in. I bet a few teachers would sigh a relief at that one.
( I will now apologies for my rant - this is a very sore point with me, so I hope you all forgive me )

Do bear in mind that some university courses (such as the one I used to teach on), don't like students to have achieved their final grade with resits of some modules.

Guessing, but doesn't sound like Music as extremely difficult to resit as the set works change each year. unless redoing performance and/or composition. Still waiting for DD1's predictions, which includes music. Was hoping she would be predicted up a grade as pulled down by composition and is opting for technical studies instead this year which she is far stronger at.

The comment about maths quite worrying as DD has a mid-boundary grade, so hoping not predicted down.

Interesting lecherrs, do you mind divulging which subject you teach ?

Lecherrs is it music and music tech?

I base it on the AS UMS score, whether students are planning to resit AS modules, and what their work ethic/ambition/determination is like.

There is no magic formula, and I think it varies from subject to subject.

For one of the subjects I teach, the AS is much easier than the A2. Students never rarely do better at A2, and more often than not, drop a grade or two in their A2 grades. So, I very much bear that in mind and look at how close they are to the grade boundaries. If they were comfortably within the grade boundary, I'd expect them to maintain their grade, if they scraped their AS grade, I'd probably predict the one below, and if close to the next grade with a resit planned, then I might go up. Of course, you would also have to factor in the individual student - how hard they work, whether the result was expected or low etc...

However, for my other subject, there is much less of a gap between AS and A2, in fact many students tend to find their feet with the subject at A2 and although it is harder, it is only a bit harder. So I'd have a totally different framework for predicting grades for that A level!

We will never over predict. We have our reputation as a college to think of, and some students do tend to view their predictions as an IOU.

No magic formula, but generally a combination of factors.

UCAS does have provision for students achieving higher than predicted grades - it's called adjustment and means that students can change their place on results day even if they have firmly accepted an offer.

I would be loathe to over-predict just because a student wants me to. Predicted grades are important and need to be based on professional judgement. A teacher who over-predicts does no one any favours.

DD has her predictions of AAA. Her AS results were AAB. The B has been predicted an A as she worked at A standard most of the year including her mocks and she is retaking the unit that she got a lower mark in.
Maths: she is predicted an A but only because she got a very high A at AS. Very few have been predicted A* - only if they have needed it and got very high ums at AS. Some of the low As have been predicted a B (unless they have made a very good case for an A) as the maths teacher says A2 is a lot harder.