A level predicted grades

My DD1's school do use a formula which they claim to be based on results at GCSE, AS and internal tests and linked to data of exam results of girls from previous years. In my opinion this it's to manage parental expectations as much as anything as many parents are ambitious for their daughters to go to Oxbridge or med school, but they simply dint have the ability.

One if the reasons given was that they did not want to damage the school's reputation with universities by over predicting. Not sure how true this is? At one uni we went to the admissions guy said they make offers to a lot more people than they have places for because a lot of students don't make the predicted grades.

Doesn't it depend how close you are to the next grade boundary? A teacher might predict an A for someone with a high B at AS (taking into account other factors of course) but a B for someone who has just scraped a B at AS yet both could be expected to improve by the same amount.

Maybe it depends on the subject?

We have the opposite problem to most! In DS's school, they seem to be predicting a grade higher than achieved at AS! I am a bit concerned that DS will either become complacent or too stressed!

For DD, her ALPS (is that he same as ALIS?) score was just below 7. I think that was due to 2A and 3B GCSEs, with the rest at A. So target came out at ABB, with B targets being given for all 4 subjects. Although the four taken were 2A and 2A at GCSE.
She dipped very badly in one subject, should have changed/dropped it in the first couple of weeks but never. Despite that, teachers consistently predicted her D at AS for that subject. She ended up with a U which was no real surprise to her - that was from a very high A at GCSE.

Her AS 'predictions' for the other subjects were DBE. She was devastated - mainly with the D in her main subject - but thankful she had not been told these until after the exams. She actually got B (high), B (mid) and D (couple marks off C). We thought this would mean at least ABC predictions, but are still waiting on the first two. However, the teacher in the D subject has said that she never goes above the AS grade, even if just one mark off.
As DD is retaking a module in that subject (30% of AS, was a U, so plenty marks to be had) is she being unreasonable in asking for a B prediction?

She is not intending to study that subject (or anything directly related) at University. But has had difficulty finding courses in her niche, and the lowest realistically has typical ABB predictions.

LeBearPolar - thanks for your post. No, I didn't mean I expected DD to have targets of 4 As! I thought they would all be either 4 Bs or 4 Cs. Saying that, one of her subjects was physics and she did find that far harder than the other subjects. 2 of her subjects were As at Gcse and As at AS though!

in all 4 subjects, she got an A at Gcse, so I would have expected the targets to be the same.

An A in GCSE does not equate to an A at A level! If you get a B at Maths GCSE for example, you would be predicted a U at A Level. Or do you mean that you think her targets should have been the same grade across the board? It depends on how students cope with the jump from GCSE to A Level - if they've done as much as they can with a subject at GCSE and the A was one they really had to work hard for, they could drop a fair way at A Level. I had a student who just scraped a D at AS despite an A at GCSE - the level of understanding required at AS was just that step too far for him.

When I am predicting grades for my sets, their GCSE grades don't even come into it. I look at the work they have done for me so far in relation to the AS grade descriptors and calculate how far they have to go between now and the exams, how responsive they are to teaching, how hard working they are and how quickly they are picking up the new skills.

Target grades may well be determined by what are called ALIS tests: these are tests which our students take in the first couple of days. Those results are used to calculate target grades. Our number crunchers also use all the previous data on that student as well as exam data accumulated year on year to set targets (so previous students with X GCSE grades are statistically most likely to achieve Y A Level grades). But it is subject teachers who predict and they, I hate to say it, will often go on experience and gut instinct. And that is right much more often than you'd think!

Hesse? ....'they'

It is the predicted grades for A2 that count as Hesse are what get sent with the uni application. DD's are based on AS grades - with a bit of justified tweaking in 1 subject.

Thanks mumslife

Thanks mumslife and hellsbells.

Phaedra - I don't think the target grades as AS mean a lot. DD1 has just finished AS - in 1 subject, she was on target, in the other 3 subjects she exceeded her target. Her targets were BBCC - in all 4 subjects, she got an A at Gcse, so I would have expected the targets to be the same.

I would still like to know more about how target and prediction grades are decided.

DS2 has just started Year 12 at a Sixth Form College. He has been told he has a target grade of B- for History but hasn't been given that information for his other subjects. I would like to know if the B- means he is expected to get less than a B for History AS? Also, where this grade is likely to have come from. He achieved a combination of As, As and Bs for GCSE. Is it likely to be the Bs that brought the target grade down? Or the fact that he didn't study History at GCSE? (He wanted to study both History and Geography for GCSE, was initially told he could but was then unable to start History because of timetabling issues). He has an A in English Language and an A in Maths.

He is really enjoying studying History, has received positive feedback for his work so far and doesn't seem to feel disadvantaged by the lack of History GCSE.

Of course the students need to be told their predicted grade as otherwise they won't know which uni/courses they can pick.

the problem we have with both target grades and predicted grades is they create a ceiling and lower student expectations of themselves. It is very hard for a student to feel they can excel when they are told the are C/D grade student based on how they performed in primary school.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Everyone is measured by them - and as commented above there is enormous pressure on teachers for students to achieve the target grade. But as soon as you hand the target you have defined the student and the teacher

One student I know was targeted in C in Business AS

As it turned out he did amazingly well achieving As in the classroom.. his essay were given to others as examples. Got an A in the mock with the second highest mark in the year group. Despite this the teacher wary of over predicting moved the C to a C because GCSE results had been average, and he had always been seen as a C type student.

The student, unsurprisingly upset, began to loose confidence ...still revised hard but overcome by nerves ,as he felt he had to prove something, completely lost it in the exam and just got a C ... the teacher`s comment was .. " he achieved his target grade - he is that type of student . He is not on our radar of concern". Of coarse the predicted grade for A2 is low.

This is in fact a true story, and those were her actual words and this is not the only case like this I am aware of.

And I am sure there are many who think "but he was only capable of getting a C so a C is good" I am pretty sure he thinks that himself.

I am with the notion do you need to tell students .. who is this for... the hours of debate about what grade to predict.. the students, the parents or the school.

NB please do not read any of this as a criticism of teachers - for whom I have the highest respect and who want the best for their students - it is not teachers who are at fault but an education system corrupted by targets.

I will now get off my soap box .. I image to the relief of all.

I teach the IB diploma, but still have to make predictions, about 3 times in the student's final year.

My heart does sink when parents turn up putting pressure on me to up their child's predicted grade. I have been doing this for a number of years, and very rarely have I under-predicted.

I also sigh when I am told that the student is really working hard now and is determined to improve their grades. I always want to reply to the effect 'why are they waiting till now to work hard, they have been told since the beginning of the course'

I hate predicting grades as it can really mess up the relationship you have built with a student and cause bad feeling. Obviously it is a necessity, but an unpleasant one. I did work in a school where students were not told their predicted, it made things easier, but I'm not sure it is the correct thing to do.

It's so true that some DC treat a predicted grade as some kind of fortune telling.
A friend's DC who had mediocre AS results accepted offers based on 3A predictions and missed both by miles. She somehow blames the school that he didn't get the grades they predicted.

Yyy, TheFallenMadonna.

When Halfway refers to our reputation, it's not a cynical move. Universities need to know that predictions are as accurate as we can make them, bearing in mind all the variables and factors mentioned above. We spend a long time musing over and discussing predicted grades, which may or may not reflect the student's original targets. It's why it hacks us off to get letters from parents saying, "please predict him/her and A/A*/B, as he won't get an offer from [RG Uni] without one. Not fair on the Uni, on the student - or on all of our other students, now and in the future, when it becomes apparent that we have form for over-predicting.

Over-predicted grades also tend to make a student complacent rather than industrious, IME. We have even experienced a student beg for a higher prediction, saw the head of year brow beaten into going along with it - and the student then complaining in August because they didn't get their predicted grade!

Halfwaytothemoon, I think you are mixing up predictions and targets. We are given statistically generated targets for our students. Our students have to achieve them or we are held accountable. They are based primarily on prior attainment in English and Maths (for KS4 anyway). A UCAS prediction is just that. What we think they will get. Usually, what we think they will get assuming a good day... It can be above or below their target.

Phew... Was hoping not to learn that geography was considerably harder at a2. DD wants to up her b grade.