How can a predicted grade and a target grade be completely different?

As i understand it the target grades are what you can achieve if you apply yourself and focus on the various gcses and the predicted grades are based on what your current level of achievement is.

Might have a dyslexic DD1 who had a scribe for English and found tables and mental maths a struggle.

So she has a target B for English (she got L5 in the boundary mark), when a C is sadly far more likely and a target C for maths when (with luck on her side) she'll get an A.

It's a crazy and very very confusing system. It would be massively better if target grades were kept for Ofsted's averages and reports only had realistic ones.

With hugs & gin for atyourcervix and biscuits and drink of choice for DD (my DD1 actually likes pink gin and tonics, but I didn't say that).

Schools give target grades in a variety of ways, but basically it boils down to the progress that the student could reasonably be expected to make based on KS2 results. Schools are judged on this (levels of progress) in a similar way to the old 5 A*-C measure. Some schools keep it simple, eg the target is 3 levels of progress; some use more complex calculations taking into account things like SEN, FSM etc. They rarely have anything to do with the teacher and often ignore fairly important individual circumstances.

Good Luck for your DD

Won't she have to retake maths and English if she doesn't get a c grade? Unless I've misunderstood what dd3's school have been trying to instil in their yr11 students this year.

The target grade is usually based on the Fisher Family trust data coupled with SAT's and modifiers applied for statements, Pupil Premium or Free School Meals.

The teacher usually has little say in the target grade which is why one of our rather bright students who is also quite profoundly deaf was still predicted a level 8 in music at the end of year 9.

It also goes without saying the target grade also fails to take into account the personality or aptitude of the student for a subject or academic study and how this may change completely in how they react to major life events.

The predicted grade is the teachers best estimation of what they feel the student will achieve based on their current progress.

It goes without saying that in most cases both parents and teachers have done all they can to support the student but ultimately it is up to the student whether they achieve their own potential.

If your daughter does not get the grades she requires to move on she can always consider resitting.

I registered to post this response purely because it was refreshing to read the words of someone who appears to be quite pragmatic.

I wish you both the best of luck this summer.

SecondaryTeacher
"We are accountable but in no way responsible for the outcomes"

Target grades are often calculated using standardised data - typically in a population, a child with x level of achievement to date will get a z grade. The closer to exams you get, the more meaningless they become.

That all sounds very frustrating. For you and DD.

As much as it might not seem like it at the moment, it's not the end of the world if she doesn't sit her GCSE's or fails them. She will have to do something post 16 and I would hope that with input from CAMHS etc you are getting support from someone with this.

Lifelong learning does what is says on the tin, it may be that she just isn't emotionally ready at this point to deal with this. She may become the high flyer she is clearly capable of being, just not quite yet.

The problem with school is the lack of flexibility and the whole square peg/round hole scenario.

you sound like you're doing a grand job in very difficult circumstances.

In all honesty AYC I think you are being a bit harsh on your DD you stated that she has "Massive big school problems" you should be helping her reach her full potential and you being very negative about the exams and saying "I'll eat my shoes if she actually manages to sit the exams" might be rubbing off on your DD
Do you know how she is feeling about her exams?

Target is what the government thing she should get, the predicted is what she will get if she continues working with the same effort/understanding as she is showing now. Predicted is not BEST EFFORT but CURRENT effort.

I did bugger all revision (and naff all work) and managed to get a B and five C's. It is possible, so she may be OK.

Target is aspirational, predicted grade is what they should get, based on evidence throughout the whole course.

At my school, target grades are based on 4 levels of progress from KS2 levels. A child who got an average score of a 4 across KS2 SATs would have a target of a B. The target grade does not change.

A predicted grade is what the teacher thinks the student will get. This is based on real data such as controlled assessment or coursework marks and mock exams. The predicted grade is likely to change depending on a range of factors.

In my yr 11 class, I have one student whose target is an A but whose predicted grade is a D. On the other hand, I have two whose targets are B but I'm predicting will get A*s.

Amber that's the way I always understood it.

Target grades are computer-generated based on average outcomes from SATS and other data.

Predicted is the teachers current assessment of my child.

Hence I have always ignored the former and focused on the latter.

Am I right in thinking that the target grade is what, on average, students with her prior attainment will get? So children that achieved x in Y6 SATs/Y9 tests/whatever, on average get y in their GCSEs? If that's right, then predicted grades are not only more recently set, but also take into account an individual student's circumstances in a way that target grades don't.

Agree - target are what she is capable of; predicted what she'll get given the current effort levels, so she is clearly letting herself down.

Does she not buy the argument that she either tries hard now, and gets it all over and done with, or spends yet another year re-taking the same subjects?

I know what you mean, it is rather contradictory but as posters above have said a target is what (probably in Year 9) they will have assessed she is capable of and the predicted grade (probably assessed more recently) will be what they feel she will achieve.

Of course, they could be entirely wrong.

The targets are set quite early aren't they? My DD1 is in year 7 and has her target levels for where she should be at the end of year 9. For her the targets are based on her SATs results in year 6.

Predicted grades is what they think she will get based on current work.

That's my guess anyway.

Target will probably have been set at the end of y9 / start y10 based on (a) results end y9 and (b) SATs results end y6.

Predicted is the best guess from the teacher as to what they think your child will actually get when they take their GCSEs based on progress made during y10/y11, attitude to work etc.

I suspect some predicted grades are tweaked a bit by teachers to either make a child pull their socks up (by predicting a bit low), or to boost confidence (by predicting a bit high).

Generally I think my DD's current predictions are a bit high and I expect some to drop by mid y11.

Does she have a plan for after she leaves? She's going to find things tough if she wants to do A'levels elsewhere as they often want 5 C+ GCSE's. If they are all E's then she'll need to re-sit.