Predicted GCSE Results

I agree with you, iclaudius. The teachers are more likely to be "beaten up" than the pupils if the grades aren't achieved. When I was teaching I actually found CATs were very good indicators of GCSE results and much more accurate than SATs or FFT.

A pupil with an average CAT score of 125 has the following chances of achieving these GCSE grades in English:

E - 1%
D - 2%
C - 7%
B - 19%
A - 39%
A* - 32%

If a school wants to be in the top 25% for value added results, it will set targets based on the performance of the top quartile for each ability, in this case A. However, more pupils will actually go on to achieve an A than A. From the pupil's point of view, it really doesn't matter what the target is if he/she has done his/her best. Persuading the school to reduce the target grade won't affect the actual outcome in any way.

We have a son in the same position. Just tell her it is only paperwork, it s nice to know someone thinks you have the potential to do it, just do yur best, that's all you can do. If she didn't have the target grades to worry about she would say she was feeling the pressure because if her (presumable) track record of A stars in every exam so far.

OP, I think reducing the targets at this point is daft. Once they've been set the damage (if any) has already been done and your dd will know what the target had been.

The key thing is to make them understand that while meeting them is nice, it's not the be-all-and-end-all. Employers will be impressed by a mix of As and A*s almost as much and what follows is much more important in any case so these results are not going to be career limiting (unless truely dire, but that would seem vanishingly unlikely). Definitely don't get into the whole rewards for meeting targets or rewards for grades thing as that just adds to the pressure.

If it cheers her up at all, I know a lad who had a straight A* targets, but then, as that apparently wasn't challenging enough, half his subjects proposed a 100% (dropping no marks at all) target instead.

I don't get what's to handle really?
Just saying that's what they 'could' get
Ds was predicted this and got it but when he was lazy we'd use it to say 'if you don't get this you'll be asking yourself why not'

daphnedill I think the vast majority do get A*s. Over 85%, I think. And the rest are As I'd guess.

But I do think the HT has a point. Stuff can happen to the best amongst us!

ds1 had all A targets, was very stressed about it, especially in yr10 as he felt he had to be "perfect" in every assessment. Also, through school he had always aimed for "above target", but with an A target there's nowhere to go. You're either "just good enough" or "not good enough".

I pleaded with the HT and Head of Upper School to reduce the targets, but they wouldn't play ball.

In the end he achieved all A*s (this summer), which was a great achievement, but I would have preferred a happier, less stressed boy.

Hopefully with new exams the elite grades will be rarer, and schools will not set them as targets, but leave them as an aspiration.

I think a sensible model is to set A grade targets in yr9/10 for these students. Then at the end of yr10/start of yr11 increase the target to an A* if parent, pupil and teacher agree that's a good idea.

After all these children presumably got L5 from primary, so a B grade would be acceptable progress = 3 Levels, and an A great is "good" progress.

In that case they do ALL have the potential to achieve all A*s, provided the selection criteria were correct in the first place. Quite frankly, if they don't all achieve As at least, something hasn't been quite right.

daphed it is a super selective so on raw ability every pupil should be straight A*. But you know how it is? You gotta be realistic!

wordfactory,
Unless your DS is at a selective school, it is highly unlikely that any pupils with CAT scores below 100 (ie. 50% of pupils in a genuine comprehensive) will achieve any As, however hard they work. They haven't in the past and it would take a miraculous jump in overall attainment for such pupils to achieve As.

A pupil achieving all A*s will probably have a CAT score around 125+. Click on the Excel Workbook in this link for the indicators for individual subjects:www.gl-assessment.co.uk/products/cat-cognitive-abilities-test/performance-indicators
The indicative GCSE grades are slightly different for some subjects. For example, a pupil with a CAT score of 125 has a 45% chance of achieving a grade A and 31% chance of achieving an A in English. However, the same pupil has a 39% chance of achieving an A and 32% chance of an A in German.

My daughter (now at uni) had the same targets. She ended up getting 7as 1a and 3bs. I think these sort of results are more likely, although clearly some do end up with a whole string of as. The unis tend to group A's and as in the same way (e.g. might want 7 a/as for most competitive courses at top unis) and I tend to think of them in the same way. I just looked as my daughter's targets as A's and thought that if it all went well on the day then she might get an a. It seems like your daughter will no doubt do well anyway and any combination of a's a and b are really good. If I was her I would just aim for combinations of the top grades, ignore the targets and think that she gets what she gets.

SantyClause

Gawd knows but due to PRP our pay depends on kids getting those grades

No pay rise for me this year despite hours and hours and hours of unpaid work for clubs, revision sessions, tours etc

The HT at DS school is fond of saying that based on CATs, SATs et al, every single pupil in his school could get all A*s..

However, this doesn't take into account interests, dislikes, strengths, weaknesses, hard graft, lack of hard graft, nerves, illness, accidents or the Enemy Within....Hormones .

Weird to think that if I hadn't bothered with that MA, my dcs would probably have A targets rather than A*s, if we had stayed in our old house as well their targets probably would have been Bs!

Same kids, same parents, same work ethic....

We're in the same position. Unsurprisingly (given he has the same parents and postcode as his sister!) year 8 ds has the same A* targets - which as he hasn't even chosen his GCSEs shows how ridiculous it is!

The thing to remember is that these are NOT predicted grades that her teachers, knowing her ability, have set. They are based on a set of statistics, and broadly, given the size of the data set, will be largely accurate on a global scale. But NOT at an individual level.

AS others have said they are based on your qualifications, postcode, her KS2 scores etc.

Oh and I think FFT only takes the best 8 grades anyway, so a child with an A target who got 8 x As and 4 x Cs would be deemed to have met their predicted grade.

They are targets.

Something your DC could achieve with hard graft, a fair wind and no more grade boundary pissing about from Gove!

Many many DC are predicted a straight flush of A*s. Very few get it.

Why is it such a shock? She must be in all the top sets to be predicted A*

Gah, I don't want her stressed, that sounds awful. But she has been in teenage lazy mode for a good year now, and I hope this has shaken her awake.

Sanity, my dd got the same predictions, but she doesn't seem too stressed about it. The school should either succeed in calming her down or lower those grades.
I told her to revise and come to us immediately when she feels she's out of her depth in any subject so we can help her. Tbh she doesn't seem to be too stressed about school in general so for her it has given her the kick into action she probably needed.

I can see why it's.a problem. Some children, girls in partular, get very twitchy when pressure is high.

This is FFT.

As teachers we hate them. FFTD (what our school uses) predicts impossibly high results for GCSE. Our PRP will be linked to kids results based on FFT.

My whole yearv11 class have been predicted As. Its a nonsense, in the class I have A*-D/E range in real terms.