Predicted Grades for UCAS

library I have just left a job in an academically selective school as a maths teacher. DDCE would be considered a massive underachievement by any student there. This is because of the grades they need to enter the 6th fom and how this impacts on their minimum target grades. For a student who has massively underachieved at AS if they pull themselves together then they could turn it around like the example you gave. However for the record this is still an unusual situation.

We find that the students we teach that needed to retake didn't do as well in general as those that didn't. The extra time they spent revising for their retake modules greatly affected their current learning in Y13. They are also all told from the start of y12 that what they do that year will be the biggest influence when applying to uni as we will base our references on their work ethic and achievement in year 12, not what they tell us they might do in year 13.

As I said earlier we apply a formula to our students based on their AS grades to start and then go through each invidividual student and consider all sorts of things, the things that have already been listed above by very many teachers. If we are borderline we will tend to predict the higher grade, but make it clear to the student that we feel they are borderline and that they need to consider that when applying to universities.

What is a 'Sutton Group Uni'? Did you mean Russell Group?!

Library - you seem to be almost boasting that your ds hasn't got experience of holding down a part time job and all that entails. Personally, I'd see that as a really positive thing on a young person's CV

Interesting what they do with statistics though - in the selective school near here, if they haven't got at least B in every AS, then they have to leave - they are not allowed to go into the 2nd year, so naturally, if you are then looking at % grades at the end of Yr13, the pupils who were allowed to stay on are all quite likely to get a handful of A or A*s, as they've not allowed all the pupils to actually finish their A levels.

"Indeed, in my bog standard comp we encourage them to work hard from the start of Y12 instead, so that they achieve their full potential at AS."

Quite. Parents need to realise that ASes are 50% of the final marks, and think through the consequences of that. This isn't the 1980s. These aren't old A Levels. For maths, it's not like doing OA or AO maths at the end of the lower sixth as a check-point. C1 and C2 provide precisely as many UMS points as C3 and C4.

In order to pull up your overall result by working harder in Y13, you need to score two extra UMS in Y13 for every one extra UMS you need overall: on average, you will need to improve by two grades in order to get one grade better overall.

At an academically selective boys' school there's a lot of pulling up by bootstraps after AS, and a lot of grade increases. Perhaps that doesn't happen much in non-selective maintained schools.

Indeed, in my bog standard comp we encourage them to work hard from the start of Y12 instead, so that they achieve their full potential at AS.

I'm a maths teacher, btw, and simply going back and resitting C1 would be extremely unlikely to raise a D to an A. Also, if they were crap at the non-calc stuff, then doing C3 and C4 won't help.

libray

No idea why you are asking teachers this. Every one of your posts suggests you think you know everything already.

We have grade increases in my non selective school. Most of my year 13s improved by a grade on A.

DDCE in a selective school would presumably be a significant underachievement, so where there is a real problem with year 12 results in such a school, I suppose such a marked increase might be more likely.

DDCE to AAB is exceptionally abnormal, i have never known a student achieve that. As Y13 is harder than y12 i generally say to students if they work as hard in y13 as in y12 then they will achieve 1 grade lower. If they up their game then they will stay on the same grade, they need to work significantly harder to move up a grade and ime that is very rare. This is all assuming they drop from 4 to 3 subjects.

Really, you are not "trying to understand" at all are you ?
Lots of knowledgeable people have explained, and you just argue with them all.
Not sure why you are continually trying to convince yourself that it's better for a 6th former not to have any work experience, either

D to A is very unusual.

Er yes, that is abnormal. He'd have pretty much had to resit his AS to go from a D to an A, and now that January modules have gone, that would mean sitting all resits and A-level exams in June of Y13.

Blimey, you seem very harsh, LibraryBook and conveniently ignore the fact I said predicting grades is usually a combination of things as you abviously have a bee on your bonnet about this and wanted to jump on anything teachers put forward. On the one hand, you want predicted grades to follow a 'formula', as teachers cannot have professional judgement, but on the other hand, all students should be treated as individuals, should they not? We can't win!

I would feel worse giving a student false hope and have them waste one of their 5 UCAS options, which would happen if we gave a blanket 'one grade up from AS to all' rule. Yes, it works for some students but not for others. Hence my school considers all students individually. Where do you get your 50% statistic from?

LibraryBook Please bear in mind that every year people do get rejected from university places that they have missed by just one or two grades. Many students hoping for places at a top university don't actually include a sensible insurance choice, and have no choice lower than AAA grades. Therefor, it's not as simple as saying overpredict, and if the predictions are wrong then they will still get a place.

I think an AS+1 prediction is fair enough if the student is close to the grade boundary and has shown the teachers that AS was a wake-up call, and they are prepared to work harder at A2. It shouldn't be standard though. A2 is harder than AS, so it's not guarenteed to go up a grade. Predicting any more than AS+1 can actually harm an application, as some universities consider this an unrealistic prediction (unless the teacher can justify it, e.g. via extenuating circumstances).

Schools/colleges can build up a reputation with universities where they regularly send pupils, and they don't want this reputation to be one for unrealistic predicted grades, as it may disadvantage future applicants from their school.

To be honest, it would make much more sense if everyone applied to university after a gap year with the actual grades they have achieved.

In my experience, a startling amount of predicted grades are over-optimistic, which means a lot of students disappointed on results day. This year seemed particularly bad.

Universities won't work only from predicted grades - AS levels are also a reasonable indicator, unless there's a good reason why they were lower than the predicted grades.

ah ok. it's clearer now. your son has not been predicted the grades he would need to apply to a top flight university....

His teachers are the ones who know his academic ability best you know. part time job or not.

Oops, just reread your post, you're actually suggesting that said student might get the offer of a place on A*AA course with an actual score of ABB! Not even AAB.

I think that is very unlikely