Is the 2013 secondary school/current Yr 6 cohort small, compared to recent years?

I think that people being aware that it's a low birth year isn't actually A Good Thing sometimes!

My two children are lucky enough to have places at an outstanding state school which is out of catchment. Historically, only the occasional pupil every few years secures a place from where we live. There was a 'blip' in numbers locally when we applied for DS, currently in Y8. We didn't think we had a hope of getting in and opening the email on allocation day 2 years ago was a complete surprise/shock as we had secured a place, so had all the peers who had applied from our primary.

This year, the school (clearly aware of the three year national dip in birth rates as described in this thread) made a really big deal of trying to attract out of catchment pupils. The thing was, I honestly don't think the Head had any idea how many people would apply. Or, to put it another way, how many parents do NOT apply annually, thinking they don't have a hope in hell of getting in.

So this year they had vast, vast oversubscription and a lot of disgruntled parents who had their hopes raised. For my son, I didn't have my hopes held high so having him get in was amazing. This year, people felt cheated.

So, as others have stated, people being aware it's a low birth year can sometimes be detrimental.

I should add that for the following year, there are currently not enough places for the predicted number of children?!

It is here, 230 less pupils in our area to go up this year, and its a small area!

Sorry prh47bridge cross posted!

They are the figures provided by the LAs for the number of pupils in state primary schools by age as at 31 August 2010. Since the cut off for year groups is 31 August (with a very few exceptions) then these are the cohorts that will hit secondary schools in subsequent years. I qualified the figures by saying that to determine the final actual figure you would have to look at all the factors that I highlighted in my original post, and since the figures were from 2010, some e.g overall immigration/emmigration would have been affecting the numbers for two years. However they are an indication of the situation in each borough. They will also help you reconcile and make head and tail out of your local Councils forecasts, something we have done in our borough because there is a big issue around their forecasts and the provision of school places.

Sorry - I've just noticed that the DfE used the age as at 31st August 2010 so Copthallresident's figures are close to being correct by academic year, although they won't take account of any children who are in the "wrong" year for their age. However, the DfE has not published LA figures either by age or by academic year for the 2012 census which is where I got my figures.

Copthallresident - No they don't! Table 9 is by age, not by academic year. And those are 2011 figures. For the 2012 census (which you can find here) they don't even give a breakdown by age.

I think as others have said, it's a low birthrate year nationally. We live in an area where there was a bizzare increase though. Primary school applications were a nightmare for my son. And then for the year after (current year 5) it all seemed to have evened out again.

So I guess you never can tell...

grr sorry about my inconsistent bolds!!

The D of E do publish figures by borough Table 9a www.education.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s001012/index.shtml

The above figures I posted for Richmond came from that table and corresponding figure for London and the boroughs bordering Richmond are as follows

Year of entry 2011, 2012,2013,2014

London 79110,78770,79490,83715
Inner 27760,27790,28310,29925
Outer 51350,50975,51180, 53790
Wandsworth 2035, 2085, 2160, 2255
Kingston 1465, 1480, 1455, 1540
Hounslow 2310,2330, 2365, 2445

All the factors I listed in my last post will impact on these figures in terms of who actually applies to schools in your area. These figures were compiled in 2010 so some of the factors I listed will have had an impact over the last two years as well in determining decisions parents make this year.

Apart from Richmond and Kingston the increase in pupil numbers is steady across London. There is a slight dip in both boroughs but I would be very careful about assuming things are going to be easier there, it will only take a few people to decide not to go private for there to be an increase, there is also a shortage of school places in North Kingston, and it is uncertain how the new admissions arrangements in Richmond will affect the Kingston parents applying to Richmond Schools as a result. The Richmond Schools with spare capacity are not near the Kingston border.

Dd2 is current year 6 and both schools she has been in are 40 kids in a year as opposed to the other year groups of 60. Worked out well for her as they are 20 in a class and she had loads of extra help but couldn't get a statement.other schools in the area ate similar.

Dd1 is current year8( millennium baby year group), her year was over subscribed in primary and we struggled to get her inwhen we moved.

I love prh47's numbers (hard numbers all excite me).

I thought there was a general Millenium baby boom, so might be some truth to it.

That said, DS secondary told me that they had a dip in applications due to local dip in birth rate, for the current y7s & y8s (born late 1999-mid 2001). But they expected to be over-subbed again for autumn 2013. They claimed for this yrs intake, that only one child in their catchment went to a different state school.

Fine, except this same high school has an ad in local paper about an upcoming open day & evening, for Autumn 2013 starters.

Why are they paying for an ad if they don't anticipate low applicant numbers again?

To go back to the original question, looking at state schools nationally based on the figures from the January school census the answer is no. The number of children in each year attending state primary or secondary schools is:

R 608,740
Y1 591,925
Y2 580,460
Y3 566,670
Y4 549,960
Y5 529,340
Y6 533,355
Y7 536,145
Y8 550,520
Y9 556,120
Y10 569,745
Y11 551,825

So we are in the second year of a 3 year dip. Since the current Y6 is similar in size to Y7 it suggests that the pressure on places next year will be similar to this year.

Of course, these are national figures. There may be wide regional variations. Unfortunately the DfE doesn't seem to publish these figures for each LA so there is no obvious way of figuring out what it looks like in your area.

Chippy

DS attends The Mall, boys school in Twickenham. The current Y6 has a much smaller intake than the rest of the school, but Y7 and Y5 have always been over-subscribed. Y6 mothers tell me than the mixed preps also have a small number of Y6 boys, and that it was an unusually low birthrate for boys in Richmond that year. I don't know if that's true, but no doubt someone will!, but I don't know what else would account for such a small intake for that year.

chippy - we are in chiswick and found exactly the same as you for primary. fingers crossed it may be the same for me now going into secondary.

Chippy

Richmond cohorts according to Dof E

2011 entry 1705
2012 entry 1765
2013 entry 1750
2014 entry 1915
2015 entry 2105

So a bit of a dip but not that significant in the scheme of things. You'll find your borough on the website but since you neighbour Richmond I can't believe you are not in the midst of a similar upward trend in pupil numbers. It is replicated across London.

This is true of the y6 at my Dcs school. Handful of pupils and only 1 girl.

Reception and y1 are huge.

Round here it is the current year 7s that is the smallest year. They start going up again after that year. So I wouldn't rely on catchment areas etc. being any bigger than last year.

The bottom line is that it could depend on which schools you apply for. The cohort generally is smaller than previous years and is about the bottom of the pupil number dip, the lowest birth rate year was 2001.
However if you express a preference for the best school in the LA you will be with many other parents chasing the same number of places that there were in previous years and there will potentially be more pupils chasing those places because more parents think they might have a chance of a place, because the cohort is smaller and also because of changing economic conditions for many families.
If however you express a preference for a school that is less popular (and may be every bit as good as the "in" school then you may well find there are less applications and therefore more chance of success.
The alternative argument is that because the system used is equal preference and you have at least 3 and possibly up to 6 preferences to put down, all the schools will still have lots of applications and the scramble for places will be just as bad as last year. The only difference may be how close you have to be to the school to get a place.

I'm told that this year's 6 around here is particularly small. This year's Reception is huge though, as is DD's birth year. Typical.

Chippy I have seen you over on the New Schools for Richmond thread and there has been endless debate about schools place forecasting over there. It is very complex with lots of variable but not as the Richmond Head of Education maintains an art not a science!! Your LA will have overall forecasts but it can be political, many parents in Richmond do not believe the Council's forecasts stand up to close inspection of the assumptions ( which in any case have been undermined by subsequent developments). So you might want to look deeper into the data. IME also if you ring the LA education department the staff at the frontline will give you what they believe is the best advice regardless of the political influences. I will list the variables and how you might research them for your area. I am afraid I haven't time to give you links but you will find them on the other thread or you can do abit of googling.

1 Birth rate This is available from the census and if you are a London Borough the London government sources. Certainly steadily rising in Richmond and neighbouring boroughs but biggest bulge coming through 2014/15

2 Cohort size You can find out the Year 6 cohort size by Borough from the Department Of Education. Also steadily rising in Richmond but also see below

3 Percentage already private or likely to go private, or return to state schools at 11. You local borough should have published information on this.

4 Immigration into and out of the borough/area. This is difficult to assess other than through looking at the data to see if it backs up anecdote. For instance census data backs up what most of us know already, people move to West London with their toddlers for the open space and good schools but then some move out when they come up against the historic lack of good state secondary schools in some areas (or go private ).

5 Numbers of pupils migrating to neighbouring boroughs or into your borough for their schooling. Also available from your LA. This is affected by the standard of schools but also whether neighbouring boroughs have sufficient places. As you are in a neighbouring borough to Richmond there is extra uncertainty this year because admission arrangements have changed so that it is purely on distance. You are already aware of the uncertainty about St Richard Reynolds, if it goes ahead Catholic posters have conceded on the other thread that until it becomes established most Catholic parents in Richmond will stay with trying to persue the existing routes to places at established schools, it is therefore assumed it will mainly attract people in from Sunbury where Catholic parents may be dissatisfied with the local option?

1. Economic situation. This has resulted in an increase in parents opting for state over private at primary level and Surrey are predicting that this will feed through to secondary. Again your LA should be commenting on trends in reports to Council Committees, Admissions Forums etc.

1. Ofsted ratings of local schools. Good ofsted ratings increase the cohort and attract people away from the private sector.

I hope this helps. For what it is worth to my knowledge both Kingston and Hownslow have rising pupil numbers and a projected shortage of places, though to what extent this will affect the coming year is debatable.

The current year 7 group is the smallest there's been for some time. Dd is in this year and it didn't help her. She didn't get into our 1st choice secondary school, though ironically the kids in the village for the last five years (bigger year groups) did.

I have a 2000 and a 2001.

....and the P1 class and future classes are too big for the school so they need to expand it which I think goes against the trend in general here.