Yr 7 predicted grades in Year 9 - did they bear any reality to what your dcs got?

Our school head said these were the basis for measuring the SCHOOL's performance, not the child's. In other words, the computer says your average level-4 child should be able to reach these grades in two years, given average teaching (and average teenage motivation). Otherwise the school will have reduced its 'value-added' score.

noblegiraffe I suspected they were made up!

I asked the school whether they were individual targets, cohort targets or arbitrary targets.

She avoided the question quite expertly I feel!

Basically a target of level 6c at the end of Y9 is assuming that a dc will make 2 sublevels progress every year between Y7 and Y9.
So if dc was 4c at the end of Y6 that would be a predicted 4a at the end of Y7.

The national average at the end of KS2 is a level 4 so being at level 4c at the end of Y7 would now be below the national average as a dc would be expected to make some progress (either one or 2 sublevels).

So the main concern is the final sentence of your post "He seems to have progressed little from his SATs scores last year, ie: Maths was 4 in SATS and he was assessed as 4c by current teacher at end of this year.." and I do think that you need to find out a bit more about why this has happened. In primary schools they often do give extra support to dcs to make sure that they reach level 4 and it could be that now this has been taken away your ds has slipped back. Are there any more clues in a longer report or do you just have a sheet of grade levels and targets. Yes, you may be worrying unnecessarily and he may catch up next year, but a good school should also have concerns about dcs that do not seem to be making much progress.

My DCs end of KS3 targets bear no relation to their achievements at all. I ignore targets and just look at achievement levels.
And, if my DC seemed to have made no measureable progress in Year 7 in any of the 3 core subjects ( I think this is what you are saying?) then I would be trying to find out why.
Can you have a look at his exercise books to see whether the work set is too easy, or whether he seems to be struggling? Has he had teachers with a lot of sick leave, or who have left? Do you think he works hard? What do his teachers say at parents evening/ in his report? Is he happy at school?
Do you know if the current levels are based on an exam or on teacher assessment?

Don't sweat the Yr7 stuff, the do like to be able to show improvements!

My DD did not do well at Yr 7 CAT tests and was estimated an average of 5 Grade A-C GCSE's. She then got 7,7,8 in Yr9 SATS and has just graduated from Cambridge.

Oh god crazy please don't bother too much with whether your DD is meeting her targets for the end of Y7, we make them up, it's not scientific, setting yearly targets is pretty rubbish. Children progress at different rates throughout the year and in different years and this is unpredictable and completely normal.

Yes quite gelatinous.

I'm surprised you think target grades for GCSE are way out mycat but schools must differ. I've found them reliable so far. Out of five DC, two were spot on, two scored slightly higher than their prediction (one by one grade in each of four subjects and one by one grade in two subjects) and the last DC scored lower than his predictions in one exam by one grade.

I spent years 7-9 getting stressed about my DDs levels/targets and I really shouldn't have done!
She started high school with 3 level 5s and targets for year 9 were maths 7c, english 6a and science 6b.
English was always her best subject yet she stayed on level 5 until the beginning of year 9 when she suddenly shot up to level 7. She achieved 6b in science at the end of year 7 and basically stayed on that right to end of year 9. Maths there was a steady improvement and she ended up with level 8 at end of year 9.
Don't even get me started on GCSE target grades. My DD has A targets for everything-even science where she was level 6 in year 9 so I don't know where that came from! She will not achieve A in more than a couple of subjects at GCSE-waiting for results now.

My dd is in Y7 and to be honest I am not taking much notice of her targets for the end of KS3 yet BUT I am interested in whether she is meeting her targets for the end of Y7. If I was in your position, I would be very concerned that so little progress appeared to have been made since the end of KS2 and would be asking the school for more information.

They seem reasonable targets for a student who is getting low level 4s at the end of Y7, but I wouldn't describe that student as of 'good intelligence', more average, or slightly below expectations.

I don't think they are great predictions for 'a 12 year old of seemingly good intelligence' I'd be having a chat with the school.

That's what I meant by 'similar to your DS'. Free school meals status, ethnicity, sex and a load of other things are taken into account.

They don't just use SATs, they use cats and family circumstances ie area they live etc

If the Y9 targets are computer generated from KS2 data (which they most likely are) then they are average predictions based on the average child who is similar to your DS and achieved the same KS2 results. Some children will hit them, some do worse and some do better. Predicting the future especially 2 years from now is very imprecise and these targets will probably be amended based on how your DS performs in Y8.

As a rough guide, a level 6 in Y9 would probably predict a grade B in GCSE except in maths where a C would be more likely. But again that's predicting the future based merely on statistics and not on your actual child.

It will be easier to predict grades accurately for children who are going to comfortably hit the ceiling (whether at grammar or elsewhere) yellow.

The note on dcs reports/progress sheets say
Target Level is a a mathematically derived level based on R's past performance data. It is intended to be challenging but realistic and is used to monitor progress througout the course"

FWIW we also get an estimated level which is what progress is expected by the teacher if dc carries on at the current rate

Oh, right. I didn't realise. Good luck with your motivating. I am finding it hard to motivate DD at the moment.

Hmm, not sure. I'd expect it to be far easier to predict grades in a grammar or selective setting tbh and much more variable elsewhere, since by definition DC have achieved a certain level at the start of Y7. I've never taken any notice of levels up until now.

yellowtip do you think that's because the predictions are acuarate? Or because the expectations were set for child and teacher? Or a mixture?

I think that the five DC of mine who have done their GCSEs have had results which are exactly in line with their baseline data (or whatever it's called). Perhaps the most recent one slightly underperformed, but not hugely.

My dd has the same, 6C across the board - I thought it was more of a general expectation than a personal prediction. Am I wrong then?

6C across the board at the end of year 7 seems pretty high to me. DD is fairly bright, but her grades vary from 4A to 6A, the highest being maths and English, and the lower grades in new subjects that she didn't cover at primary school.

I don't know anyhting about SAT gradings as my DC's schools don't really do them.

But I can tell you that my DC have both way outperformed what would have been expected of them at a younger age.

Thisis one of the reasons I am not enamoured by the gradings. They seem to pigeon hole DC.