numbers of applications to London private school - why so many?

So now we're nearing the end of this rather unpleasant process, what do people think? Have there really been more children taking exams, or is it a case of the same children sitting for multiple schools?

I don't know what it was like a few years ago, but from what I can see the results in our school have been consistent within the peer group - nothing wildly unexpected - but certainly on the tough side. Children who could have coped well in the mid to upper range schools not being offered places etc. If this is because the most able are being offered 5+ schools I imagine there might be a lot of movement on waiting lists - or maybe there really are just more and more very bright DC out there?

In DS's school, a significant proportion have parents who are new to private education; ditto parents who are or were foreign nationals but are living here at any rate for the foreseeable future; some who are based abroad. It makes for a great mix but the applications have increased hugely over the last four years.

When DS was applying round the place, we were told that broadly the numbers applying to the private schools in our area would balance out. I don't think that's the position any more - it certainly doesn't feel like it, as some of his mates now travel hours to get to school and my taxi driver home tonight told me she drives a boy regularly from W Sussex to get to and from south london!

Mrshighandmighty - that's very interesting about the number of exams per child - I feel positively chilled out with our 3 schools now! (might not come offers time though!) No my DS2 didn't make KGS - it does seem to have been very hard this year with 610 kids sitting it and more boys than girls (when they take roughly equal boys/girls). Good luck with wherever you're trying - twins must be double the 11+ nightmare!

In London it seemed to be fairly flat across 1999-2002, but the birth rate has really grown since then. Almost glad to be in one of the last "low birth years" to be honest. Approx 105k babies born each year 1999-2002, but 130k born in 2009! How many extra secondary schools need to be built over the next few years?!

I'm very inclined to put it down to an increase in exams per child rather than total number of children - it may be a nightmare for the schools going through the offer reiterations.

The children siiting the exams now would be born in 2000/2001 so not part of the slight bulge in 1999.

It's a myth that there was an increase in the birth rate for the millenium - there was a slight rise from 1998-1999, but lower in 2000.

Hi

My twin DSs sat the Latymer exam yesterday and there were 960 children sitting it - "a record year" blah blah ....

But interestingly, a teacher with one of my boys asked the group (as a way to pass the time before the exam started) to put their hands up if they were sitting 2,3,4,5,6 or more exams .... the biggest group of hands by far was for four exams - but there was a decent crop for 5 and 6 exams - one poor victim said she was sitting 11!!!

I think its a combination of millenium baby-boom and desperate parents casting their nets wide either for scholorship or deciding thats where they want to invest what funds they have ...

(Stillfeel - hiya! Neither of mine got KGS - again - your dcs are clearly genius'! Hope you had good news for dc2)

In South London the indies seem to have approx a 10% increase in numbers sitting for them. No idea about Surbiton, but Years 4 & 6 seem to be full at all of the local private schools, typically with waiting lists. Year 5 seems to be less full.

We decided not to go for grammar because a) whilst it is only a small risk that the government will interfere further with grammars it is still a risk; b) even the very good grammars seem a bit more obsessed about their league table position rather than on their leavers destinations and whether they were able to gain good employment 4 years hence.

I would still be interested to hear from parents with dds in other London junior schools. I absolutely agree with points made that Surbiton is run of the mill school for local girls, which is why the huge increase in numbers at the junior school mystifies me. They did start gauranteeing 11+ places at the senior school a few years back, so avoiding the stress of that may be contributing.
But, LEH does the same so I would now expect parents to be queueing to get in there. Again, historically they had places available through the junior years, has that changed as well?

Interesting debate. Certainly the numbers registered at each of the Indys DD has sat for in West London this Jan are reported to show a 10% rise on last year. I think this may be a combination of the so called Millenium baby boom but also that each child is probably sitting for more schools, either to increase chances to get a scholarship somewhere or just plain desperation to be sure of netting a decent school in an area with just a very few, heavily oversubscribed grammars. When we went through this nightmare 2 years ago with DS, we only "did" 3 schools but, thinking we were too naive last time, we are doing 4 with DD, even though there are more girls schools so arguably more places overall.

stillfeel you ask your friends who are governors and will spill the beans or you chat to the admissions officer .

And frankly, you can tell by the numbers of bums on seats. If the years are all full and there is a waiting list...voila. If they increase the intake as many schools have that is also another fairly weighty piece of evidence.

I have 2 children at Indi London day schools, child 3 will follow soon.
So expensive but worth every penny. Ds was failing at his supposedly outstanding primary. 30 in class, and totally ignored, near to bottom in everything. This year he is taking 12 Gcse;s expected A's and B's in all subjects. The largest class has 18 students, smallest group has 9 (Latin) DD doing just as well. If I could afford to move my 9 year old from state primary today I would without hesitation. He will have to wait until 11.
Many state Primary's employ young cheap inexperienced teachers, the national curriculum covers no more than the basics, There is a massive difference between the educational levels of prep school kids and state primary kids, that's why many parents tutor their kids like crazy to get them in to a decent Indie, the competition is tough.

Out of interest, does anyone have concrete (inside?) data on the increase in applicants at these day schools this year? The problem is that every school you talk to, even the less selective ones, likes to imply that they have "a record number of applicants this year" but you do have to factor in the fact that a private school is a business and part of its job is to create demand - and it's human nature to want something more once we know that it's in high demand. I remember being told exactly the same thing at exactly the same schools when my DS1 applied 2 years ago.

I'm just on the edge of this (have a dc in Y5 an ind school in London) and think it may be a combination of several things:

If you are moving into this 'zone' (ie 11+ applications for independent schools) I think it always looks worse/harder etc. I don't think anyone has ever said "thank god I'm in this position, there is so much less competition than last year"

Private schooling seems to have held up v well in the face of the recression. I'm not sure if it is because everyone is ultra wealthy in London, or more because private schooling is the last thing to go. My DC's head (London prep) told me that they have seen v little fall out at all, although what they did sometimes see as a trend - and this was just an observation, they don't pry, obviously - was fees being paid by different people, she surmised grandparents, godparents etc. So that "pool" is not diminishing in the recession as you would intuitively think it might be. The pool could be being swelled by the number of people refocussing from boarding to day. In my area, if you looked across the wide range of options available then the London day schools are probably the "better" choice anyway, and harder to get into, so I'm not sure I agree that people are "downgrading" to day schools.

Unfortunately, and again I'm speaking for my specific area, the state schools do not seem to be getting any better. So I don't think you are getting people thinking, well we'll drop out of an independent primary into a state secondary. The continuing trend seems to be state primary to private secondary.

I thought that late 2000 was a boom year, numbers wise. My nephew is in that cohort and my SIL reports that they have been caught out at every level - from unable to get into tumbletots onwards. i suspect that is a large part of it.

DS1 is in superselective and there are quite a few Russians....

A lot of Millennium babies are in yr 6. All schools are feeling the pressure of numbers.

And it's exacerbated in London because there are very few good secondaries. So if you know application numbers are high for them and the alternatives are the "over my dead body" schools, I wouldn't be surprised if more parents are looking to the private sector.

I agree with wealthy still being able to afford school fees but surely they always made up the core of a lot of pupils going to these schools. Think the point baking addict makes about concern about state of schools /places is probably more in it.
Although there is something in the good school to help you have a head start mentality I think that has always been there with a lot of parents - not sure it completely explains boost in numbers as it might be more explicit now (eg recession, issues re uni places) but was a phenomenon alive and kicking 20 odd years ago when I was at school.

I live in London and i'm not yet at the stage to seriously worry about my kids education.

DS will go to school this year to a local primary with a good OFSTED report but i'm filled with horror at the state of secondary education. Bearing in mind that most schools in London are massively oversubscribed, a good number of my friends have only been given a 3rd choice school, I think a large number of people in this situation will choose to go private.

I will either look to massively tighten our belts and send them to private school or re-locate to an area outside London with a cheaper standard of living and any profit from our London house sale can go towards their education. Mine and DH's jobs are not necessarily London based so we have this option

horsemadmom there are lots of Chinese in the super selective.

milkshake3 the numbers applying to boarding school may be up but many of these children are coming from abroad not just the obvious places China India Russia but other places as well. At my DS's full boarding school which is selective many are from China etc. But I have close contact with a less selective full boarding school, who will give help with language difficulties, and there are a surprising number of 13 year olds from Western Europe including Germany and Italy where I think we assume education is of high standard. Speaking to the staff the other day they were saying that this is a fairly recent change in the last 4-5 years.

I've heard from DS's Headmaster that it really is down to the expense of boarding. He said he's seeing boys from the preps who have older DCs at boarding schools but the parents can't afford a 2nd or 3rd child to board. Eton, Harrow and Winchester's loss is his gain.
The influx of foreigners may make a difference in some schools but not seeing many Russians in the super selectives.

Despite the recession, the wealthy are still wealthy. A drop in earnings and a hike in tax still leaves enough for school fees. Their numbers remain static.

I think the increase in applications in our area (just outside London) is be driven by many first time buyers of private ed, who are really pushing the boat out to pay the fees. These are parents who are looking forwards and seeing some very difficult times for their DC. High cost of living and few jobs. More comeptition for the best paid jobs from abroad.
They're going to do everything in ther power to ensure their own DC stay in the game. Going to a good day school is seen as part of that and statistically that's proven to be correct in the past.

There is also Gove's proposal to allow existing grammars to expand. Not sure if that will pass as I have read that Labour are trying to stop it happening.

I wonder if the numbers might drop next year. It looks like many state schools are bringing their 11 plus test dates forward in order to provide the results by Oct 31. If this is the case, then fewer children may need the backup of private next year.