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Politics

So.... all you political pundit types...

56 replies

OrmRenewed · 10/05/2010 20:58

tell me what's happening. Because I haven't a clue.

GB is a gonner. Clegg is two-timing the tories.

Please elucidate for the hard of thinking.

OP posts:
HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 08:57

people keep saying that the public voted for electoral reform. I am genuinely confused by this. 76% (?) voted for parties that did not included electoral reform in their manifesto.

How can this be? Someone help me understand.

fembear · 11/05/2010 08:55

"The only danger is that AV is so crap that the public doesn't vote for it at all."

That's a danger? I am so looking forward to the LibDems doing deals to get their referendum on changing the voting system ... and the public saying NO! That would be so funny.

claig · 11/05/2010 08:48

Just heard Gideon and Paddy Ashdown on the radio 4 Today programme. Osborne is very good and is impressive. He is very clever and very diplomatic. If you don't look at him, he makes a lot of sense. Paddy was going all out to show tha advantages of a Labour//LibDem pact. On first hearing, it sounds like that is what he will advise the LibDem party. But thinking about if further, I think Paddy was just bluffing, putting last minute pressure on the Tories to make a better deal. I think it's all over now and the Tories/LibDems will make a deal, and that is in fact what Paddy will secretly be recommending whatever he says in public. I think it is great news for the country. Gove, Osborne and the Tories all seem very constructive and conciliatory, it shows that they can all compromise for the sake of the national interest. I think we are entering a new era in politics, and the LibDems are on an upward curve. The spin and lies of the past will be turfed in the dustbin, we are now in a crisis and spin won't solve it. The only sticking point that Paddy saw with the Tories was the fact that they are a rabid anti-Europe party. But I think that this is wrong. I am not a fan of big EU government, but I think the Tories only pretend they are so much against Europe, they always do the opposite. So Europe won't really be an issue.
I don't understand all of the different PR systems. Everybody says that AV is crap. But I think that you reach a journey's end one step at a time, not in one big jump. It may be a good strategy to first go for a crap AV. If the public votes for it, then their next step could be for something better. The only danger is that AV is so crap that the public doesn't vote for it at all.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/05/2010 08:39

I might be confused on the greece issue - last time I heard, we were saying that as we are not in the Euro, its down to those who are to bail this one out.

did I get that wrong? theres so much to keep up with at the moment!

100x is exactly write in saying that what is going on at the moment is negotiating. I would expect nothing less under the circumstances.

scaryteacher · 11/05/2010 08:35

If it is a Lib-Lab stitch up, then Clegg and the LibDems better watch out as Labour will not honour any promises made once they are in power.

Introducing a major change like PR without explaining it to the electorate, or putting it to a referendum is unwise; as was signing up to Lisbon and therefore having to bail out Greece.

claig · 11/05/2010 08:09

snowlady, agree about Teather. The more I see her, the more I realise how fantastic she is. She could single-handedly make a Tory coalition government popular. She is a shining star and I hope the bigwigs can see that. I missed out Laws, he is great too. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a deal with the Tories. In the early days I didn't like Gove, but I now realise how very clever he is, he has not been braying and is diplomatic and conciliatory. I hope the Tories can make a fair deal with the LibDems. I still think it will happen.

snowlady · 11/05/2010 07:56

Claig - I agree it would be refreshing to see sarah teather in the cabinet.

I think it is the voting system and length of the government that are the lib concerns and I can see why. From what Osborne said last night and Gove said this morning I imagine the tories are working towards the lib dem demands.

I will now put money on the labour party offering a better form of PR by the end of the morning!

I really hope a stable tory/lib dem coalition is formed. I hope the talks with the labour party are not serious.

HumphreyCobbler · 10/05/2010 22:14

I think is a nightmare for the Liberal Democrats. There is no easy solution for them.

It is almost a case of be careful what you wish for. It is certainly much easier to criticise from the outside than to make such difficult decisions.

claig · 10/05/2010 22:13

vesela, you are right they may fear that now. But if Clegg can convince them to go along with the Tiries, then I think they will lose their fears as they start to see the benefits of people like Clegg, Huhne, Cable and Teather appearing on the news every night. They will be more popular than Gideon and Gove. The public prefer the centre in politics and that is natural ground for the LibDems. Their best bet is to push Labour to the left and oblivion, and to let the right-wing Tories stamp and shout. The LibDems will then look like the natural reasonable party of choice, and will be trusted because they will have governed in partnership for five years already.

claig · 10/05/2010 22:07

although if the Tories are clever, they will let Vince Cable be Chancellor rather than Gideon. That way Vince and the LibDems will get the flak for the austerity measures.

Monty100 · 10/05/2010 22:04

Gordon Brown is. For now.

vesela · 10/05/2010 22:04

claig, I think the problem is that you have those Lib Dems who fear that, after backing the Tories, they'll be trounced at the next election unless PR comes in now now now.

juneybean · 10/05/2010 22:01

I don't really get it, who's the prime minister now?

claig · 10/05/2010 21:58

true they will lose some trust. But I think most people already guessed that they wouldn't be able to get their way. Memories are short and a week is a long time in politics. In five years' time, the LibDems could well be holding all the trumps, Labour could be marginalised and the Tories would be blamed for the austerity measures. The LibDems could then walk into government through an open door.

snowlady · 10/05/2010 21:57

Anything is better than getting into bed with alex salmond and peter mandleson

HousewifeOfOrangeCounty · 10/05/2010 21:50

I think you idea is a bit optimistic. If the LibDems sacrifice some of their policies in order to get power they will lose trust.

claig · 10/05/2010 21:45

I think this could be a golden opportunity for the LibDems. The country has spoken and shown that it prefers the Tories to Labour. If the LibDems can get into the cabinet and rule with the Tories for 5 years, they will show the public that they are a credible party who can be trusted to lead. They will have to ditch some of their policies as a compromise, but it will be worth it, because they can fight for those policies again in the future. In five years' time, the Liberals could hold the centre ground and Labour will be forced out left towards the unions. The public will then prefer the LibDems to Labour, and it will be between the LibDems and the Conservatives. The LibDems can then offer PR and many Labour voters will vote for the LibDems, as Labour's power will have declined and there will probably be power struggles within Labour that will weaken them.

amothersplaceisinthewrong · 10/05/2010 21:44

Oh Machiavell Mandelson is in the thick of this somewhere pulling the strings. Putting my money on some Lib/Lab/nationalist alliance. Can't see the Libs jumping into bed with the Tories

frogetyfrog · 10/05/2010 21:42

I think there are a lot of Lib Dem voters who like the tories - I know of many. Some arent quite happy to be tory through and through so voted lib dem and a lib dem/tory alliance would be perfect. But I dont know much about politics and am only going by what friends and family have said.

ahundredtimes · 10/05/2010 21:42

lol animula. And when we wake up, it will all have been a dream . . .

animula · 10/05/2010 21:38

Oh goodness! Latest speculation is another GE in @ 6 months.

Across the nation, houses will remain untidied, meals uncooked, and children untended. and our nerves will be frayed ... .

I think I need some sort of denouement. Or perhaps it'll be like one of those American serials, where they go off air for a few months, leaving you on a cliff-hanger.

Cartoose · 10/05/2010 21:35

I'm riveted too Orm. It all seems quite surreal at the moment.

HousewifeOfOrangeCounty · 10/05/2010 21:31

Agreed HumphreyC they are between a rock and a hard place, but I do think that politically there's more distance between the Tories and LibDems than Labour.

Will hold my hand up as a Labour voter though, so may be biased.

ahundredtimes · 10/05/2010 21:26

I don't think he's two-timing anyone.

he's negotiating

which is what happens with hung parliaments!

Much, it seems, to everyone's astonishment. . .

HumphreyCobbler · 10/05/2010 21:24

I think if they prop up a Labour admin they will lose credibility too. It is a bit of a bugger for them.

Makes him look just like the others though. I find it ironic really

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