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Politics

So.... all you political pundit types...

56 replies

OrmRenewed · 10/05/2010 20:58

tell me what's happening. Because I haven't a clue.

GB is a gonner. Clegg is two-timing the tories.

Please elucidate for the hard of thinking.

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juneybean · 12/05/2010 16:54

I hope so! Our summer holiday depends on this haha! She won't be able to afford it if the interest rates go up as her bursary won't cover her mortgage, oh dear!

FrakkedUpTheElection · 12/05/2010 05:07

You may have more up to date info - I hadn't heard what the deal was with the budget when I posted that. I know the Conservatives were in favour of immediate cuts but the Lib Dems didn't want them until 2011. Who knows with this situation? Normal conventions don't seem to apply!

But your friend should be safe, markets willing.

TheBride · 12/05/2010 02:53

Juneybean- the government doesnt set interest rates. That's done by the Bank of England which is independent of the government (grudgingly admits that this was a good idea by Gordon). Therefore, the election result was somewhat irrelevant to interest rates. The main threat to interest rates is inflation because interest rates are used to control inflation.

My understanding on the budget(slightly different to Frakkin) is that the Con-Lib Gov will publish an emergency budget which effectively replaces the last budget. i.e. they dont wait till next March. How much change they will make is hard to know.

However, agree with frakkin that student nurses/ front line public sector workers are unlikely to be an immediate target. It's more likely to be people in Civil service middle management/ consultants etc. as they are relatively more expensive and people notice them less.

FrakkedUpTheElection · 11/05/2010 21:20

Yes he's in.

No, any changes need to go through Parliament which doesn't reconvene until May 25th. Then cuts would typically need to wait for the next Budget.

There will be cuts but newly qualified nurses are likely to be safe, because they're cheap. Interest rates I can't comment on - that depends on the dreaded markets.

In all honesty I don't know. I don't think your friend's funding will suddenly disappear though.

juneybean · 11/05/2010 20:58

Instead of starting a new thread, can someone clarify something for me, since I think DC is now in... can he make changes immediately?

I ask because my friend is a student nurse getting the NHS bursary, and she also has a mortgage which the bursary helps to pay for, but she's a bit worried if they interest rates go back up her mortgage will go up and won't be able to afford it?

Then she's worried about cut backs to the NHS?

FrakkedUpTheElection · 11/05/2010 17:57

TheBride I think you are in fact NC....

Who's the Groom?

claig · 11/05/2010 13:09

thanks Chil1234 and OhYouBadBadKitten
great links, I will try to get my head round that.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/05/2010 12:37

link

TheBride · 11/05/2010 12:27

I think the LD's major problem (and the reason more people dont vote for them) is that they have no experience in government. It's easy to make nice promises from the opposition benches.We dont know what they'd really be like running the country. At least the other 2 parties are known quantities (Tories less so as havent been in power for so long).

Therefore if I were Nick (and who's to say I'm not..........) my priority would be to prove that the LD's can be effective in government.

So, I've got two choices. I could strike a deal with Dave, who, to be fair, has not screwed me over before, but who I'm not that aligned with. However, the major advantage is that I dont need my whole party to support the Cons on everything for the Cons to get a majority.

If, on the other hand, I form a pact with Lab, I'd better make sure I've got a damn good whip because if my MP's rebel against key bills like the finance bill, I look irresponsible and as though I'm putting party before the key priority of sorting out the deficit.Plus labour screwed me on PR last time. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me, and all that.

I'd go with the Cons, lose my cabinet cherry, get some respect for sorting out the economy, get a ref on PR.

alienbump · 11/05/2010 12:26

But the Labour Party manifesto does state that they would hold a referendum on the introduction of Alternative Voting by Oct 2011. I presume that's where the 70+% figure comes from.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/05/2010 12:16

[[http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/article.php?id=5 another explanation) links on left of page. (tis probably a bit biased as its the electoral reform society)

Chil1234 · 11/05/2010 12:15

Should add that it doesn't take tactical voting into account. Assumes people voted for the candidate they wanted....

Chil1234 · 11/05/2010 12:12

The BBC has quite a simple explanation of different voting systems here It also extrapolates the 2010 voting patterns to see what the result would look like with the different systems in place

claig · 11/05/2010 12:09

yes you're probably right. I don't understand all these different PR systems. I fear that AV may be so crap that the public won't even vote for it. Then we'll be stuck as we are and never get any PR, which is a shame.

FrakkedUpTheElection · 11/05/2010 12:06

You can make the numbers stack up any way you like. I could 'prove' almost anything from this election result. It's a speculator's heaven.

The Lib Dems are hovering between making it big and total obliteration. For the moment I'm erring of the side of the Tories and making it because Labour won't do them any favours.

The danger of making a half-arsed attempt on electoral reform is that AV is still majoritarian, it discriminates against smaller parties even more than FPTP, people won't want too much change and the AV+ proposed by Labour's committee in '98 currently isn't used anywhere....

In other words it's so crap it's dangerous.

claig · 11/05/2010 09:18

yes it is easy to say things when there is no chance of them being implemented. I am happy that the LibDems are now sitting at the real table and seeing how things really work. It is good for the country.

HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 09:14

this is why I am finding the Lib Dem position quite funny actually

they were so sanctimonious when in opposition, now they have to actually DO something they are finding that all political choices are hard ones

claig · 11/05/2010 09:12

it will all be over soon, and we can all join together in berating the new government, whoever they are

HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 09:09

thank you

you make me feel like I am NOT actually going mad

claig · 11/05/2010 09:09

fembear, but the Lords is paper tiger compared to the Commons, where the real power is. Let's practise what we preach, and give real power to the people and let the people decide.

claig · 11/05/2010 09:07

yes you're right. They are bending the facts to suit their case. I have also heard the other side saying that they didn't vote for PR because the LibDems didn't get a majority. They are all specious arguments that only serve the interests of the different sides.

fembear · 11/05/2010 09:06

Tell you what, Claig, arrange for me to be PM and I'll sort it for you. Keep the FPTP, MP-represents-constituency for the Commons and put the percentage-of-votes-won result in the Lords. Simples.

HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 09:04

I agree with you on that.

But people keep saying the public voted for electoral reform. I can't see how that is true.

claig · 11/05/2010 09:02

HumphreyCobbler, I think it is because the public don't vote on just one issue, so there is no way of knowing what the public really want on PR. That's why we have to ask the public in a referendum. Voting is at the core of democracy, and it has to be sorted out to make democracy real.

claig · 11/05/2010 08:58

yes fembear that may be what the Tories really want to happen and this AV thing is a trap for the LibDems. But I personally want a proper PR system where everybody's vote really counts, whatever party they vote for and that includes all of the smaller parties. I think it is unacceptable to call it a democracy and then to disenfranchise huge numbers of people whilst the leading parties carry on with the stitch-ups of the past.

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