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Original poster

Is anyone in Oxford West/Abingdon? What the hell happened?

56 replies

TheHeathenOfSuburbia · 07/05/2010 08:32

How did Evan Harris lose his seat on such a massive swing? What happened?!

I went to bed last night thinking Lib Dems were going to lose a few seats, but a 13% swing? WTF? Did he punch a granny in the face or something?

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aquavit · 10/05/2010 13:07

I felt very badly for Evan Harris too. For what it's worth I'm in Oxford East and I think that there WAS a big focus on the seat they were hoping to take - we were no. 4 on their hitlist. I know several Lib Dem campaigners who live in OxWAb but did most of their campaigning in Ox East. I didn't know that that was the Grauniad's analysis but it rings very true to me.

Original poster
TheHeathenOfSuburbia · 10/05/2010 13:00

The only people who are going to win anything in an early election are the Conservatives, they're the only ones who have any money left.

Yay, go democracy.

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Avocadoes · 10/05/2010 12:51

There is no way the Tories will agree to PR, or even a PR referendum, as part of the pact. Maybe a royal commission but no more. I reckon the Libs will get little from any pact. The best they can hope for is some input on what happens to the economy so they look statesman like and in 18 months they can point to their behaviour and say they now have experience.

jenny60 · 10/05/2010 12:16

I think he would get it back if the LDs got PR, with a Tory or 'rainbow' alliance. Labour did pretty well in West Oxford, mainly because it was believed that EH was a sure thing so Labour voters thought it would be safe to vote Labour. Labour people would, I think, be inclined to vote more solidly anti-Tory next time, but would think twice if the LDs went into a coalition with the Tories without PR. Mind you I'm talking about myself only. I would be ok with a LD/Tory pact if PR came with it, but other Labour people might not be. V. interesting, if nothing else.

Avocadoes · 10/05/2010 11:17

True. Although I think that if the parties don't find a way to make to govern with the results they have got, and if they therefore call another election within the next 18 months, the Lib Dems will be destroyed. People will be put off coalition governments, and therefore PR, and therefore the Lib Dems. EH will be exceptionally lucky if he gets his seat back in an early election.

policywonk · 10/05/2010 11:10

Must be really sickening to lose by such a small margin.

I was thinking about this last night - the next election in this seat (whenever that is - might not be so far off!) could end up being a real lightning rod for various implacably opposed factions. Obviously the hardline anti-abortionists/Christians are already geared up; now all of EH's supporters will be geared up too. Could get ugly.

Avocadoes · 10/05/2010 10:36

This election has featured some constituencies with really tiny majorities. I mean 176 is small but in Northern Ireland one seat was won by 4 votes and in Hampstead Glenda Jackson hung on by 46. Hendon was also tiny IIRC.

Original poster
TheHeathenOfSuburbia · 10/05/2010 09:51

176 IIRC, avocadoes...

The tories' signs were knocked over, abr1de? Guess you're right, the Lib Dems clearly aren't as organised as the conservatives, because our tories came round and removed our signs with a white van.

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jenny60 · 10/05/2010 09:50

176

policywonk · 10/05/2010 09:48

Around 200, I think. Vv close.

Avocadoes · 10/05/2010 09:33

How many votes did he loose by?

jenny60 · 10/05/2010 09:18

You're right to a degree, but it's also clearly the case that neither the Lib Dems nor Labour put much effort or money into the seat. Why would they? It was seen as relatively safe and a tradition has grown up in the area over the years about tactical voting. Harris has long been portrayed as a lunatic secularist, Dr Death etc... but he still won on previous votes. This time, the money and effort went into the next door seat. And, there was a smear campaign and it was disgusting. So yes, hard graft, but also a lot of money that the other parties just don't have, a lot of support from wealthy areas and a helpful smear campaign.

abr1de · 10/05/2010 08:08

'Any OxWAb campaigners believe what the Grauniad is implying'

No. I know from my own friend who canvassed for the Tories just how hard they worked in ABingdon. Night after night they were there. They took it very, very seriously. Even though they thought she wouldn't scrape through they still kept going. They were very well organised, all receiving text messages on the way home from work, telling them where to go. They knew exactly which parts of the town were the ones which would effect a swing and they concentrated on them.

Their signs were mysteriously knocked over several times but they just kept replacing them.

There was no great mystery: just plugging away. And the mood on the streets was receptive. My friend told me there was only one occasion when anyone was viciously opposed to them and that was an elderly libdem couple. Even the BNP voter was civil. when they knocked on his door.

jenny60 · 09/05/2010 22:32

I will miss him. He is the kind of LD who makes it possible for me to vote for them. He's spoken a lot of sense about possible pacts too.

tacticalfloosy · 09/05/2010 22:16

It was DH's fault.

[rational]

Well, he voted something else. So now we have Nicola Blackwood. Who I'm sure is fine. But we don't have Evan Harris. And that feels like a major loss to me this week.

Theochris · 09/05/2010 22:16

See I'm not a lib dem supporter particularly, but I did like his approach to many things (libel, evidence based etc). Having read some of the pages (mostly Telegraph) I mentioned earlier though I'm almost inclined to join the lib dems for their approach that religion should be a private matter. Some of the internet vocals who don't like him make me like him more (as well as making me feel thoroughly disenfranchised).

Original poster
TheHeathenOfSuburbia · 09/05/2010 22:10

X-posts with UQD, didn't know the Guardian had said that, was just going on my local knowledge and, er, what I would have done if I'd been campaigning in that area

Oxford East - tactical voting? Expecting a swing to the Tories, everyone rallied behind the sitting MP?
It has been a pattern in this 'patternless election', that sitting MPs seem to have generally done better, no?

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vesela · 09/05/2010 22:09

Blergh (leaflets).

Original poster
TheHeathenOfSuburbia · 09/05/2010 22:07

avocadoes - "He does however lack some basic people skills."

Hi! Welcome to the world of science!

Seriously though, if we only elect people with great people skills, you end up with smarmy gits like Blair and Cameron running the joint. Perhaps that's unavoidable to an extent. It's a bit unfortunate though.

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UnquietDad · 09/05/2010 22:06

What happened in Oxford East? That was meant to go Lib Dem...

Any OxWAb campaigners believe what the Grauniad is implying, i.e. that a diversion of campaign funds into "winnable" Oxford East away from "safe" OxWAb adversely affected Dr Harris?...

Original poster
TheHeathenOfSuburbia · 09/05/2010 22:02

I bet it was bloody Oxford East that did it.

LDs thought Oxford West was safe; Oxford East has been drifting from Lab to Lib Dem for last 3 elections, looked like it would tip this time. Bet they focussed campaign energy on Ox East... which stayed Labour.

And apparently if you do the maths:
Oxford combined vote: LD-41,087 Con-33,633 Lab-27,937.
MPs: LD-0 Con-1 Lab-1
(Us Lib Dems love to torture ourselves with sums like that )

All things considered, the population of OxWAb probably isn't that much more scientist-heavy than average I guess. Particularly as in the last maybe six or seven years, the people working in the science companies haven't been able to afford to live in Abingdon, much less Oxford, and have moved out to Didcot/Grove type places. Ah. Another possible explanation there too, I guess.

With charming leaflets like this and this doing the rounds...

Ever since I left Abingdon four years ago, it's been my dream to move back one day. Not sure I feel the same way about it any more!

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policywonk · 09/05/2010 21:47

Yes, he was on the Home Affairs cttee I think? Put a lot of work into scrutinising ID cards leglislation and things like that.

I think you're right that he's a flawed communicator though - he obviously manages to antagonise a lot of people (whilst also having lots of fervent admirers).

Avocadoes · 09/05/2010 21:44

I feel very sorry for Evan Harris. He was one of the hardest working MPs in parliament. He might not have been a great constituency MP but he worked exeptionally hard at amending legislation and scrutinising the government through committee work etc.

He does however lack some basic people skills. it's almost like he does not understand how to relate to people on a personal level. He is driven but a flawed communicator. I wonder if that was something that put some of his constituents off.

jenny60 · 09/05/2010 21:43

I don't frankly care about homeopathy, people taking it etc... I have, many times in desperation, and it never worked but that's not the point. It may work for some people but there is NO credible scienific evidence hat it works and it's being funded by the NHS FFS. I know a lot of people don't like him as a person, but the Telegraph stuff is just dreadful. He's artciculate, understands the NHS, supports a woman's right to choose and supports PR. I'm a Labour member but I voted for him.

policywonk · 09/05/2010 21:33

jenny, Harris was one of the people who joined in with that 10-23 protest recently, in which loads of people took 'overdoses' of homeopathic remedies to see what would happen The aim being to get Boots to remove homeopathic remedies from its shelves I think, or at least to prevent the manufacturers from making any claims of efficacy.