What I think will happen
Increase in min wage by 6%+ from April to around £13.50-£13.80
Small or zero increase in public sector skilled wages eg nurses, teachers, further disincentivising anyone getting qualifications and striving for a better job. Why be a nurse with student debt and responsibility and loss of earnings while you study when the take-home for a band 3 hca isn’t that much less.
Further equalisation of taxes between passive income and wage income - probably a bit too much so investing and entrepreneurship will be discouraged - may as well keep you cash in the 5%s and be happy than strive to make a bit more and lose it in tax.
Extension of personal allowance thresholds for years disincentivising extra work by anyone on the edge eg nurses working nights/weekends/overtime or teachers doing private tutoring at weekends or people taking on a part time job on top of their full time one to support their dc at uni (having no job means the government supports them so you won’t need to work harder yourself).
More tax on business and jobs - more unemployment. Further demonisation of anyone who provides employment.
General head tilting sympathy towards UC claimants and another daft scheme like you can have a slice of white toast with a scrape or marge during school holidays for every child under 5 which will cost a billion pounds and save “hard working families” 18p a week.
Several other things along the lines of the £2 bus fares and energy VAT that save amounts like “£12 pounds a year” announced as if it is life changing.
Something on green energy that will mean families are better off by £4 a year from 2042
A fudge around defence spending
Schools given money to tell “working class white boys” that the arts, literature, humanities and even STEM etc are not for them and they will have “how to work in a production line” lessons instead. No support for actual production lines to employ people.
Some stuff that won’t come in until 2030 which will be immediately scrapped by the next government.
What I think should happen
Overhaul of UC and welfare- obviously.
There are some low hanging fruit - time and age limits on unemployment benefit. The number of hours people are expected to work - most UC claiments don’t work at all and the 1 in 3 who do work very low hours. Claiming carers allowance as a carer and as a receiver of care is all to often a pisstake. Benefits for migrants without previous contributions (not asylum claimants). Motability - no need for a new car every 3 years - it’s completely abnormal to replace a new car every 3 years. Layering of benefits that give an income that would put a worker into the 40% bracket. Reviewing which disabilities actually cost more and need proper support and which ones are just part of life and should be sucked up (people with adhd needing extra money for takeaways in case they forget to shop being a classic example or people wanting money for taxis as they have too much anxiety for the bus). Less meddling in how many bedrooms people have or “need” and who they live with. Self supporting families are expected to cut their cloth. Min CM to be calculated in the need of the recipient child, not the income of the absent parent (no £5 a week if you cba to work or work cash in hand) and should be treated as income in benefit calculations the way it is with parents who live together.
There needs to be much greater acceptance that people who don’t work or work minimal hours in unskilled jobs are going to be poor. Realistically unskilled workers need to work lots of hours to earn enough money to live on but this is somehow controversial.
Housing - make dense, conveniently located housing more attractive by overhauling the leasehold system rather than sprawling estates along every A-road in the country. If I was in charge I would make it the law that all new flats should include a utility cupboard to house your washing machine and vacuum and mop and where you can keep your coat and shoes so help prevent the occupants wanting to kill each other. The young and the old are particularly suited to living in flats but everyone panics about the service charges and buys a house in the arse end of arse instead. Our cities need more people living and working in them or they will die. Increase the LISA allowance and remove the limits of what can be bought. The new first time buyers scheme shouldn’t just include new builds. Remove or slash stamp duty on main homes so the market can move.
Overhaul of personal allowance and tax thresholds - I know a lot of people want the personal allowance to increase massively but when the 10p rate was in the threshold was closer to the equivalent of £9k. I would like to know what the numbers would be if the allowance and rate were both reduced - say £5000 allowance but 10% rate up to £16k - which is just about what someone on min wage working 25 hours gets, then a 20% rate up to £40k, then 30% up to £70k etc. The 20% jump does affect behaviour but maybe a 10% jump would be equally bad. As it stands people who barely work and people close to the 40% threshold change their behaviour to not go over. Full time work, extra work, higher skilled work should be incentivised.
Hospitality - what a mess. Massive food and energy inflation with huge rises in min wage and NI, plus increased regulatory burden such as spiralling insurance, needing certificates for cleaning equipment rather then the health inspector just looking etc have cut into already tight profit margins. 4 hospitality businesses go bust every day with the associated loss of jobs and very often another empty shop on the high street. Businesses are cutting employment but these are the businesses that so many working adults learned how to work in when they were younger. The government does occasional tinkering with business rates but the only thing that can save the industry is the abolition on VAT and a flat rate hospitality tax of 8-12% for everyone on everything including Greggs. The VAT system is too clunky and has insane exemptions and has cliff edge rates changes which discourage growth and encourage criminality. 45% of small, independent, hospitality businesses are paying zero VAT as they claim a turnover of under around £1800 a week. If we assume 25% costs for stock, it leaves the equivalent of 3 min wage workers working 36 hours a week and absolutely nothing for rent, utilities, card and banking fees, insurances, regulations etc. These type of businesses are like hens teeth, yet 45% of independent hospitality claims to be just that. If you are taking cash and not declaring it then you also need to pay wages in cash, often to illegal workers, and the problems cascade. No NI or income tax receipts as well as no VAT. Businesses that do pay often try to stay under the next threshold of £230k by seasonal shut downs, limited opening hours etc because when you tip over you have to turnover £1000s more just to stand still. We desperately need policies that encourage growth and create jobs.
NHS - unsustainable. We do far too much for free for patients who take no personal responsibility. It would take a very brave PM to declare a policy like £10 per GP appointment, prescription charges for all short term conditions for everyone (tbf I think kids prescriptions should be free), no free metformin unless you get your BMI under 25, no free investigations treatment for weight related joint pain until bmi is under 25. Appointment missing fees (would require very robust booking systems which are often absent) As a society we need a far greater emphasis on personal responsibility in terms of obesity, nutrition and fitness. I’m in my 50s and am of the generation where every primary school had 2-3 fat kids out of 200 total but we are an age group with obesity related heath problems. The current primary age population are going to be unsustainably expensive when they are older adults. I would bring more shit food into VAT - ready meals, cake, the currently exempt crisps, milkshakes, pasties etc. This would be spectacularly unpopular because so many people literally just buy a load of packets to snack out of or heat up on a tray rather than actual ingredients to cook with and people do need to eat and food inflation has been terrible in recent years.
We also need to end whataboutery in policy making.
I’m not an economist (obviously!) or the chancellor and I’m not getting into a snarky bunfight.