What do with think will be in Labour’s budget?

Unpaid household council tax bills have soared to a record £7.4bn, official figures have revealed.

Arrears have risen by £782m in the past year as families struggled with the cost of living crisis, according to analysis by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) think tank.

It will add to pressure on John Healey, the Chancellor, who presents his maiden Budget next week, to stop families falling deeper into debt.
Households are facing increases in their bills, with the average band D council tax in England having risen by £111 to £2,392 in April, a jump of 4.9 per cent.

I don't believe that the Labour party has much drive to govern. There are opinionated politicians everywhere, but I don't actually think most are willing to govern. It sometimes means telling your constituents that they can't have everything they want.

@Badbadbunny

I think the conservatives would have lost in 2024 even if they had not bungled COVID. Maybe not by as much.

They lost 7 million votes compared to 2019. The turnout in 2024 was 3 million less than in 2019 and Reform won 4 million votes in 2024. So, there is the 7 million difference.

Although Labour more than doubled seats in 2024 from 203 to 412, they actually received fewer votes than in 2019. Such are the quirks of the FPTP system in the UK.

@EEexpat

COVID started in 2020, many businesses disappeared. Russia invades Ukraine in 2022. Hamas 2023. Conservatives lose in 2024.

The Tories had no control over the latter events, but they made serious mistakes with covid, especially Sunak excluding 3 million self employed, small businesses, etc from support schemes which caused far more businesses to fail than if they had been properly supported. Small businesses/self employed were likely to have been Tory voters, but the 3 million excluded were never going to vote for Sunak after he screwed them over.

Precisely, that was exactly my point.

@blossomtoes

It appears to be both more fickle and less rational than that. Essentially the situations in August and October are very similar yet the public reaction to them is different. Psychologically it’s an interesting point.

Mrs Thatcher was doing badly in the poll before the Falkland war in 1982. After UK won, her poll ratings soared. Conservatives won the 1983 general election with a large majority. Enough to keep them in power until 1997.

Maybe she was seen as a hero which proved the British bulldog spirit couldn’t be broken?

Similarly, are governments ousted due events they can’t control, but are blamed for anyway? The financial crash was in 2008. Labour lost in 2010.

COVID started in 2020, many businesses disappeared. Russia invades Ukraine in 2022. Hamas 2023. Conservatives lose in 2024.

Apology accepted, thank you.

Everything you say is true and all those things absolutely impact the economy, both domestically and globally but they seem not to be the things that most affect public confidence. It appears to be both more fickle and less rational than that. Essentially the situations in August and October are very similar yet the public reaction to them is different. Psychologically it’s an interesting point.

Thats fair, I apologise.

Without wishing to state the bleeding obvious.

Conflict is inflationary, as are tariffs, as is AI capex and adoption, as are ageing demographics, as is rearmament etc etc

Monetary policy is tightening for a reason.

And its why Burnham is fiddling with bus fares and standing charges etc

The COL crisis is simply not going to ease in the short term, as it’s broadly supply side.

Edit: for context I sit in a number of areas of finance where I see credit deterioration and asset values declining as well as energy costs.

Instead of just posting caustic one liners, why not explain why I’m wrong?

TikTok vibes are going to be harder to sell when that summer bounce is gone.

La La Land.

The difference between real world/lived experience, I suppose.

Four out of the last seven parliaments (since 1997) have run full term. I think your wish for Burnham to call an election outweighs the probability.

It's also a fact that it's highly probably (given recent memory) that the GE WILL be called before then.

Politicians will call it when it looks the best time for them, not for the country, so if they know that there's more bad news incoming and there's a chance they may win "now", they'll call it now.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Burnham calls a GE within the next few months as there's nothing but bad news on the horizon. He's probably already regretting not calling it during his "Summer bounce".

The fact remains that there is no necessity for a GE to be called before June 2029 and every aspect of the world could - and probably will - look very different by then and at many points in between.

Most GE's in recent memory have come earlier than full term! It's fairly rare for the GE to happen at the end of it's natural term.

Look at Gordon Brown, who may well have won a GE had he called it early, but screwed up by delaying it.

Can I remind you that we’re almost three years out from a GE? If public confidence can undergo such a dramatic change in two months just imagine how it can change in two years. It’s completely meaningless at this point. I might start taking it seriously if there’s a trend of lack of confidence but there isn’t currently.

Rational or not, it's peoples' perceptions that win elections. So whether the worldwide economic position has changed or not over those months, the politician's can't ignore how people perceive things, as THAT is what wins/loses elections.

The macroeconomic global situation hasn’t changed since August. War was ongoing in Ukraine and the Middle East then. The rise in economic confidence was attributed to the World Cup and holidays.

Look at the macro, Blossom.

What do you see, globally?

In what way? It’s clear that public confidence in the economy is a fickle beast when it’s swayed by something like the World Cup. That’s why I give it little credence.

You are way behind the curve, dear.

It might not have been clear but I was being sarcastic.

So much hatred and vitriol for pensioners. They have a paid off house, they have a pension they have savings... blah, blah, blah.

I would hope that someone who had worked for 40 years would have accrued more that a twenty or 30 year old. Its not rocket science.

Yes, the drop is definitely not good news for the Chancellor and I’m sure it will make walking the tight rope of the budget harder, but my understanding is that it’s the drop that is especially steep, not that confidence itself is historically low.

Consumer confidence has been in the negative since 2016 (for understandable reasons, if you look at the world) but we’re nowhere near the lows it plummeted to under Liz Truss, so to frame it as a problem that’s unique to Labour is definitely wrong.

Public confidence was riding high in August. That quote is from the the Guardian. It’s amazing how confidence can change so quickly when basically nothing else has.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/23/uk-consumer-confidence-falls-fastest-since-covid-cost-of-living

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/11/consumer-confidence-world-cup-uk-holidaying-lift-summer-spending-barclays-survey

Well yeh. Not sure why that needs a post. Obviously. We also have a PM focusing on buses.