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Lower migration and the tax gap: raise taxes or ease restrictions?

260 replies

Mouldemort · 28/09/2026 12:50

James Cleverly introduced some serious restrictions on immigration, which Labour have upheld. Mahmood is going to introduce further restrictions. This has had the effect of reducing immigration substantially and forecast immigration (yes, even taking account the new method of counting.)

Immigrants, especially new immigrants, are disproportionate contributors to the UK's tax take, because they tend to be high earners and have no recourse to public funds. The low earners (who have mainly been blocked) are the bedrock of social care. The decrease in immigration has been more that the Chancellor planned for, so that leaves a substantial tax gap - at least £4bn and possibly £6.5bn annually.

Note this is from the Times, not a bastion of leftist thought.

So the question is, what do we do about this? Are you willing to pay higher taxes to pay for the shortfall? Should we lift restrictions on immigration to keep taxes lower?

Rejoining the single market or at least the customs union might help, but the same people who oppose higher taxes also oppose immigration and a closer connection the the EU

"Falling migration numbers could cost the chancellor as much as £7bn in fiscal headroom as he writes his first budget, The Times has been told. Government insiders believe that John Healey, who already faced an uphill battle to balance the books next month, is likely to have an even bigger challenge after immigration significantly undershot projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank estimated last month that the success of Shabana Mahmood’s reforms, which have seen net migration cut to the low hundreds of thousands, could cost Healey some £4bn. Labour sources familiar with the budget process, however, said that the figure was now closer to £6.5bn. The OBR’s migration forecasts have been consistently higher than real numbers in recent years. Treasury officials, who have long expected Mahmood’s reforms to cause a hit to headroom, described the number as “pure speculation” but did not deny that Healey would have to contend with a larger funding gap than expected because of falling migration"

"At the same time, the OBR also observed that a ‘low migration’ scenario would – even after taking account of reduced pressures on public spending – push up borrowing by about £14 billion per year in 2028-29, considerably more than the cost of a 2p cut in National Insurance contributions, and raise the debt to GDP ratio – the government’s key fiscal target – by about 2.5%, or about £75 billion"

"In the short term, the biggest impact will be on social care, already struggling with workforce pressures and years of underfunding. Over the last two years, only a very large influx of migrant workers – 70,000 new starters in the last year – has saved the sector from an even deeper crisis. If the fall in visas issued is sustained, and there is not a large infusion of taxpayer funds, prospects are bleak."

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/falling-migration-john-healey-headroom-zsw9rdcnr

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-is-falling-but-the-economic-cost-may-be-high/

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https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/falling-migration-john-healey-headroom-zsw9rdcnr

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DogsDinner · 02/10/2026 22:12

@BIossomtoes

Straight from the horses mouth, the people who actually work in these hospitals. The government has just made legal changes this year, 2026, to prevent it.

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 21:38

DogsDinner · 02/10/2026 21:07

@Blossomtoes

Hospital departments now have contracts to recruit all their nurses from abroad. So British trained nurses cannot get a job and also have to go abroad.

Sounds like an urban myth to me. Unless of course you have some evidence.

DogsDinner · 02/10/2026 21:07

@Blossomtoes

Hospital departments now have contracts to recruit all their nurses from abroad. So British trained nurses cannot get a job and also have to go abroad.

DogsDinner · 02/10/2026 21:02

@Blossomtoes

It’s laughable because British trained junior doctors, 7 years into their training, I believe, were having to compete for their next placement against half the world, before the rules changed this August.

Because foreign doctors were so desperate to come to the UK, they would apply even if it was a downgrade for them. So British students were at an immediate disadvantage.

They had no choice but to go abroad if they wanted to continue their training.

nearlylovemyusername · 02/10/2026 20:51

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 20:28

Why is it laughable? The health care workers we train are departing for the US and Australia in droves. Why would we train more so other countries can benefit?

Edited

Do you have any idea why they are leaving in droves?

Would you suggest we stop training them at all? why should we subsidise US and Aus?

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 20:28

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 20:22

I agree, it's just crazy. An absolute scam. We need to train our own resident workforce and recruit them for the work that needs doing.

The idea that the NHS recruits so heavily from abroad because it wants to recruit 'the best' is just laughable.

Why is it laughable? The health care workers we train are departing for the US and Australia in droves. Why would we train more so other countries can benefit?

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 20:27

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 20:19

Absolutely. If we don’t other English speaking countries will.

Out of interest, is there a reason why you are opposed to training and recruiting young British people to take up the roles as doctors and nurses in the NHS?

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 20:22

DogsDinner · 02/10/2026 20:17

@5MinuteArgument

There did use to be a requirement for employers to at least pay lip service to trying to recruit locally through the Resident Labour Market Test.

Boris Johnson abolished this requirement along with any other controls, such as employers even having to pay minimum wage to immigrants.

The NHS then started contracting with foreign countries such as Nigeria, so that entire departments’ nurses came from abroad. The verification process was so slack that nurses were able to use proxies to take their competency tests.

The process has supposedly been tightened up, but given at least 2 recent scandals I can think of, who knows.

This is just part of our utterly mad immigration system where we train our own staff to a high level of competency, then force them abroad to make way for people from countries where you can lie and cheat your way into a job, putting patients at huge risk.

I agree, it's just crazy. An absolute scam. We need to train our own resident workforce and recruit them for the work that needs doing.

The idea that the NHS recruits so heavily from abroad because it wants to recruit 'the best' is just laughable.

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 20:19

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 20:15

It's pragmatic to recruit nurses from abroad

Does this apply to doctors too? It's OK for the NHS to recruit doctors from countries where the ratio of doctors to patients is far lower? All fine and dandy.

Edited

Absolutely. If we don’t other English speaking countries will.

DogsDinner · 02/10/2026 20:17

@5MinuteArgument

There did use to be a requirement for employers to at least pay lip service to trying to recruit locally through the Resident Labour Market Test.

Boris Johnson abolished this requirement along with any other controls, such as employers even having to pay minimum wage to immigrants.

The NHS then started contracting with foreign countries such as Nigeria, so that entire departments’ nurses came from abroad. The verification process was so slack that nurses were able to use proxies to take their competency tests.

The process has supposedly been tightened up, but given at least 2 recent scandals I can think of, who knows.

This is just part of our utterly mad immigration system where we train our own staff to a high level of competency, then force them abroad to make way for people from countries where you can lie and cheat your way into a job, putting patients at huge risk.

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 20:15

It's pragmatic to recruit nurses from abroad

Does this apply to doctors too? It's OK for the NHS to recruit doctors from countries where the ratio of doctors to patients is far lower? All fine and dandy.

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 20:09

MrsBennetsPoorNervesAreBack · 02/10/2026 17:32

Oh I know how oversubscribed it is. My dd is a medical student at the moment and I know what it's like.

They have actually increased the numbers a bit recently but my understanding is that there simply isn't the capacity within the NHS to train more doctors at the moment. And of course, there are costs to consider as well.

Not sure about the situation with nurses - I had heard that applications were significantly down so not sure if they could fill additional places even if they offered them?

How interesting that there simply isn't the capacity within the NHS to train more doctors at the moment ... when much poorer countries seem to be able to train a surplus of them, so that they leave to work in other (much richer) counties.

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 20:02

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:25

But I thought the left had principles? This seems really quite a strange approach. What about all the poor people in the countries without health care? It's really terrible. On some African countries they have a single doctor to cover thousands of women for neo natal care for example.

We have plenty of kids wanting to train as doctors but I hear loads of stories of straight A* pupils being rejected from medical school.

Agree. It's crazy that poorer countries are supposedly training a surplus of doctors and nurses so that they leave to go to work in richer countries.

Yet we don't train enough of our own because we don't have the capacity, ie we can't afford to. Makes no sense at all.

We should train up our own young people and recruit our own young people. Then the wages they earn, instead of being sent abroad, will be recirculated into our own economy.

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 19:58

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 19:53

The NHS also doesn't prioritize recruiting British trained doctors into the NHS which is completely crazy.

Not if those trained elsewhere are better. I want the best regardless of where they were trained.

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 19:53

Badbadbunny · 02/10/2026 17:22

So why doesn't the UK increase the number of training/Uni/medical school places? This has been a problem for decades, yet medical school places in the UK are still grossly over-subscribed and very hard to get.

The NHS also doesn't prioritize recruiting British trained doctors into the NHS which is completely crazy.

5MinuteArgument · 02/10/2026 19:50

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 16:52

The NHS needs the most highly skilled workforce it can get. That means hiring the best people regardless of race or nationality.

Other countries don't do this. They prioritise their own workforce before recruiting from abroad. The proportion of foreign healthcare workers in comparible countries is much lower.

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 19:05

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:35

You're the one focusing on the Philippines though, when I was focusing on African countries. You can't say "pragmatism " to a brain drain of medics from some of the poorest countries on earth, surely?

I can when it’s nurses from a country which has a policy of training more nurses than it needs in order to export them. And who will migrate to other countries whether or not they came here.

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:35

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 18:27

It’s called pragmatism. Take it up with the Filipino government.

You're the one focusing on the Philippines though, when I was focusing on African countries. You can't say "pragmatism " to a brain drain of medics from some of the poorest countries on earth, surely?

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 18:27

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:25

But I thought the left had principles? This seems really quite a strange approach. What about all the poor people in the countries without health care? It's really terrible. On some African countries they have a single doctor to cover thousands of women for neo natal care for example.

We have plenty of kids wanting to train as doctors but I hear loads of stories of straight A* pupils being rejected from medical school.

It’s called pragmatism. Take it up with the Filipino government.

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:25

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 18:19

And my point is that they’d leave anyway. I’d rather we had them than another country.

But I thought the left had principles? This seems really quite a strange approach. What about all the poor people in the countries without health care? It's really terrible. On some African countries they have a single doctor to cover thousands of women for neo natal care for example.

We have plenty of kids wanting to train as doctors but I hear loads of stories of straight A* pupils being rejected from medical school.

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 18:19

And my point is that they’d leave anyway. I’d rather we had them than another country.

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:16

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 18:11

It’s a very good example because it’s a deliberate political and economic strategy. If we didn’t employ those nurses the US, Canada and Australia certainly would.

My original point is that developing countries are sending doctors sorely needed by their own populations to us. Its all rather colonial really. Surprised you support it really, being of a lefty persuasion.

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 18:11

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:07

Not that many though. And the Philippines is a bad example as the care throughout the country as a whole is poor. The doctors would prefer to come here than go into rural poor areas.

It’s a very good example because it’s a deliberate political and economic strategy. If we didn’t employ those nurses the US, Canada and Australia certainly would.

Pineneedlesincarpet · 02/10/2026 18:07

BIossomtoes · 02/10/2026 17:11

We should also remember that some countries train healthcare workers specifically specially for export. And those workers send money home. The Philippines and its nurses are an example.

Not that many though. And the Philippines is a bad example as the care throughout the country as a whole is poor. The doctors would prefer to come here than go into rural poor areas.

MrsBennetsPoorNervesAreBack · 02/10/2026 17:32

Badbadbunny · 02/10/2026 17:22

So why doesn't the UK increase the number of training/Uni/medical school places? This has been a problem for decades, yet medical school places in the UK are still grossly over-subscribed and very hard to get.

Oh I know how oversubscribed it is. My dd is a medical student at the moment and I know what it's like.

They have actually increased the numbers a bit recently but my understanding is that there simply isn't the capacity within the NHS to train more doctors at the moment. And of course, there are costs to consider as well.

Not sure about the situation with nurses - I had heard that applications were significantly down so not sure if they could fill additional places even if they offered them?