Farage receives second £36m donation in two days for Reform

They are carrying on with legislation that was drafted before the massive bung to Reform. How is that hypocritical? They are not proposing caps on donations from businesses and organisations, so it is not only the unions who won't be affected.

I think this will backfire on Labour. It will make them look petty and hypocritical.

It really doesn't beg that question

Polling science is quite interesting. It’s definitely not infallible and there have been some methodological changes after a couple of disastrously wrong ones. But it’s big business so it’s not ‘finger in the air’ either.

https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/faqs-about-polling/

@Efacsen

Polls only measure voting intention
Elections measure actual voting

I would rewrite that to:

Polls only guess voting intention
Elections measure actual voting

And look how often they are different. Often poles apart.

If polls are reliable, why bother with general elections?

Polls only measure voting intention
Elections measure actual voting

@concertinacornflake

For the established polling companies, their business model relies on the reliability of their polls.

This prompts the question already asked, but not answered.

If polls are reliable, why bother with general elections?

@MelissaLovedMantari

despite having Reform in the hlead in their polls for many months, have decided they no longer want Farage to be PM

You forget that seats and vote percentages are not correlated. So, by definition polls are pointless.

Unfortunately, MPs seem to trust them and operate as weather vanes and change their minds accordingly.

The poll methodology is published by the legitimate polling companies. For the established polling companies, their business model relies on the reliability of their polls.

Well if you are correct it seems the pollsters, despite having Reform in the hlead in their polls for many months, have decided they no longer want Farage to be PM. Happy days!

@MelissaLovedMantari

Okay. I googled whether or not opinion polls are audited. It did not produce a single result.

So, my view is that they can be whatever the publisher wants them to be.

But until recently, and for quite a long time, Reform was leading in all the polls. So could the polls be relied on then but not now that Labour is leading?

I made it pretty clear I was quoting from the YouGov site. I don't work for them.

@KeepPumping

The basic answer is, of course it can"t be relied on! Polls are used to cast doubt on parties/referendums that challenge the accepted order.

The only helpful reply to my questions regards polls.😀

Essentially polls are viewed as correct when they say what people want to hear and wrong when they don’t.

Today’s polls show at best Labour 2.9% ahead of Reform. Some are less and YouGov has them equal at 23%.

However, some posters on this thread, and others, think the small leads are kryptonite. Maybe they forgot how many times they said a 4% difference in the 2016 referendum was not enough to make an informed decision even though 33.4 million took part which is massively more than the opinion polls which are a few thousand?

@MelissaLovedMantari

Maybe you should start a thread about polls as this is turning into a bit of a derail.

Not a detail, but one of your earlier posts used the phrase “our tracker” and referenced YouGov at the same time. Made me think you worked for YouGov.

The basic answer is, of course it can"t be relied on! Polls are used to cast doubt on parties/referendums that challenge the accepted order.

You have still not responded to the points I made and are off on some personal deflection that I'm not particularly interested in responding to

Seen you do this so many times before

People are feee to vote however they choose. Including tactical. I voted Labour in 2024. Not because I thought they were the best, but to get the conservatives out.

I don't think anyone has said the polls are always right. I remember what happened in 1992.

Maybe you should start a thread about polls as this is turning into a bit of a derail.

Do you understand the power the house of lords has as opposed to a couple of tech bros who live overseas?

@MelissaLovedMantari

They gauge the current mood of the public.

That’s the bit I don’t buy into. There are approximately 48 million registered voters in the United Kingdom. So, how can a sample of a few thousand be extrapolated to reflect 48 million?

More significantly, polls have been wrong in the past regarding general elections and the referendum as follows:

1992

https://www.reuters.com/article/opinion/from-1992-why-the-uk-pollsters-got-it-wrong-idUS1333858313/

2015

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/why-did-the-pollsters-get-the-general-election-results-so-wrong/

2016

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

I also remember a petition to revoke article 50 attracted 6 million signatures, but Brexit happened regardless

You didn't address a single point I made - just some guff about 'tactical voters' needing to be better informed

Tactical voters will get along fine without your 'advice'

No and I still don’t get the attraction for some. But anyway you’ve agreed not to engage with the op so all good.

But if the "tactical voters" gave their head a shake they would understand how the country and it"s laws are really influenced, looks like Labour want to ban hereditary peerages so they can stuff the Lords with their own choices so they can push through more free money give aways?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/10/keir-starmer-appoints-25-labour-peers-in-bid-to-strengthen-support-in-house-of-lords

What's the value of polls? Surely that is obvious. They gauge the current mood of the public.

I would like to know how polls are audited to ensure they are not biased

Most pollsters publish the methodology they use. I have no idea how or if they are audited. Perhaps do some research if you are concerned.