Is Reform done for?

I do. That's why I wanted your take.
As you might expect. I (respectfully!) disagree.
I do support rehabilitation. But there are many ways to be rehabilitated that don't involve causing extra distress to your victims. Jewish community leaders and Baroness Berger have been crystal clear that this man's presence in a public role is inappropriate, distressing and offensive to them. Badenoch has chosen to put her own judgement ahead of theirs, which is hugely disrespectful.
I'm also at a loss as to what realistically he could possibly contribute to the wealth of knowledge that already exists on radicalisation. Experts have researched extensively, going undercover to experience the process and talked to countless radicalised people. His knowledge is also over a decade old.
I think he has value in delivering talks to young men. But in a government role? No. Its like paying a convicted rapist to advise the minister for women and girls on how to keep women safer.

We never used to talk about politics. Then Johnson and Truss came along and our opinions were aligned. He liked Sunak so we diverted for a bit then came together again in 2024. He’ll never vote Labour unless it was the only way to stop Reform. We’d both vote tactically if necessary.

@pondplants

I always think this - what is the point of those polls? I don’t know why they are given so much attention.

They get attention when they say something that people want to hear. Sadly, UK government seems to make policy, U-turns, etc., based on what they say.

Off topic slightly, but was the reason David Cameron did not have a plan for a leave vote because polls forecast a remain result?

This is a difficult one. She's got balls for appointing him to that role but agree with her on his past bringing a level of experience that no other candidate might. He's seen the error of his ways and she's giving him a second chance. Advocates of rehabilitation over punishment can hardly complain. A Very bold move that will either bear fruit or will come back and bite her. She's shown her commitment to fighting anti-semitism so I'm reserving judgement. Thanks for asking me because you know how passionate I am about this topic.

I always think this - what is the point of those polls? I don’t know why they are given so much attention.

Agree with all of that.

What's your opinion on her conduct over the former nazi? Has her betrayal of the Jewish community not put you off?

Lowe has been pretty clear on his terms. I think that unlike Farage, his beliefs, heinous as they are, are sincerely held. I have him down as a fanatic rather than a grifter, and as such, the less likely to back down.
The other thing that surprises me is that Restore didn't stand aside in Makerfield (not that it would have helped as it turned out, but there was reason to think it would) if he had any serious intention of uniting the right. He has come forward when Reform are weak thinking he can use them to drive ahead his agenda, rather than with intent on compromise. Hence his 5 hard conditions.

I bet its great fun in your house when it votes to politics or has he swung towards Labour?

And she’s lost the lifelong Tory voter I live with so it’s not doing her much good, is it? She’s not gaining anything.

She knows she needs to get those swing votes back from Reform. I am one of those voters. So far, she's doing a good job of getting me back on board.

Restore will need to strip back rather than Reform conform. Anything other than that and Restore will continue to be a fringe party.

Exactly that. Added to which, the right is getting pretty crowded now. There are three right wing parties jostling for votes with moderate, one nation Tories increasingly feeling politically homeless. If Badenoch had any sense she’d be moving her party back towards the centre but, as we’ve seen this week, she seems intent on being Reform lite.

Do you think there's much support amongst the mainstream Farage desperately needs to win over for the death penalty for British citizens, while allowing non Brirish citizens to escape justice by being deported? For relaxed fire arms laws that undo the work done to protect small children from a repeat of Dunblane? For imposing laws that dictate what women are permitted to wear?

I don't know so much. If Farage wants out, Lowe is better placed than Tice to take the reins. Lowe brings with him growing support, albeit critics of Reformers who they see as Tories in disguise. It would also save Farage a lot of kick back if he permanently vacates Reform - whether voluntarily or through not regaining his seat. He's already facing criticism for taking an unnecessary risk with the by election.

Restore came from reform in the first place. Lowe can see that Farage is in trouble and wants to take advantage

I don’t think it would at all. Lowe’s policies are abhorrent to many people who would abandon a merged party. The only party that might benefit is the Tories. In any event the two leaders have already fallen out and would undoubtedly do so again.

If Reform and Restore merge, that will give Reform the impetus it needs. This ridiculous splitting of the right wing vote is playing into Labour's hands.

Reform fall apart when put on the spot - Laila Cunningham, 30p Lee, just awful. Farage avoid interviews as he can’t bear scrutiny and just gets angry

Yes. That's a much more concise way of saying where I'm at too.

I've thought a lot about this since yesterday and I think where I've got to is that while redemption/a second chance etc is important to our notion of justice, it's a step too far that he should enter public office, even if that's 'just a councillor' as some have said.

If he truly has changed and I don't see any reason to distrust what he says, he should focus his time now on working on de-radicalisation programmes as he is already doing. That will be a better contribution to society.

The thing is, crimes like his change lives. There are people who suffered trauma, were made ill, frightened to leave home, lost work, and who may well have lost their feelings of security for ever.
It doesn't seem unreasonable then surely, that the perpetrators life may also be changed by his crime? And that while he re-enters society, it can't be the same as it would have been if the crime hadn't been committed.
Because his crime left a mark that can't be erased and he and his victims have to live with the consequences of that.
He's actually very fortunate that for him that means just not distressing them by taking certain roles. He has by far the better deal.

Have no comment on NF as I don’t like him but don’t hate him either. However, polls LP positivity was more about Keir going than Andy being great. I also think LP won’t get re-elected.

If Burnham called an election this summer, he might have won. A lot of people have a lot of hope for him. But I don't think he will be able to achieve anything noteworthy. And people have the attention span of gnats so if he hasn't achieved something pretty amazing in the next couple of years (and he won't have done because it's impossible) people will want a Nigel/Rupert change.

Latest poll showed Reform UK back on top. If Burnham allows cop killer to be released early Labour will drop in polls.