Burnham unopposed & likely to be PM by mid July

This is how I see it.
The UK suffered a mini death under Brexit as a country (contrast to eg Germany that suffered a full national identity death after the defeat in the Second World War).
10 years post Brexit there is a need to redefine national values clearly and do things differently. It may well end up left on own industry/own workers but slightly more right on other matters. Whatever it is, it is unity that is most urgent. A lot of the past ideologies do not work anymore and a lot of the thinking there (which tends to be male centric and of the past) is now redundant. It is really important that existing Labour MPs look at their own privilege and their own ideologies and stop pretending to be working class when the large majority are anything but.

There will be no change in two of the most important roles advising the PM. These are financial, and the national security advisor, who have both been retained.

Surely Mahmood is a smart appointment because whoever goes against her may be accused of racism and sexism potentially. One female chancellor already couldn’t really get on. Labour need to allow stronger women to shine, it’s a must.

Burnham is maintaining that Labour will be more united under him. It seems obvious that a lot of the unrest has been fuelled by members of the PLP who think they should have a more significant job. With over 400 of them this will result, again, in significant disappointment ......

There are two articles in the Guardian about Mahmood, so it is not really a warning. But if it proves to be incorrect why rally the market on speculation for it to then go down if it is Ed Milliband after all, straight away as Burnham comes in.

I don't think Wes has had a mention recently in the fight to be chancellor, wonder where he will be.

Do they indeed?

Anyway, he’s making a speech today, so just a tiny bit of time left to cram in a couple more warnings. There have been a few 😀

The markets don’t seem to want Red Ed. The pound went up/gilt price more favourable on speculation of Mahmood instead. Back to 1.18 to the euro. So investors think she will be better for the economy.

Praying it’s Milliband, who understands economics.Wouldn’t that the a thing!

Multiple press tipping Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor.
I did say I like her and she is the best they have currently in terms of competency.
If she is chancellor and a good one, she may have a chance at the top job.

Keir Starmer's record as prime minister
Ben Chu BBC Verify policy and analysis correspondent

Keir Starmer has overseen a number of changes since he took office in July 2024 - here's a closer a look at his record as he prepares to depart office:

Economic growth picked up - The UK economy registered the fastest growth among the G7 nations in the first quarter of 2026, expanding by 0.6%. However, many analysts do not expect this to last due to the war in Iran.

Immigration fell - The total number of Channel crossings last year was the second highest on record after 2022's peak under the previous Conservative government, though overall immigration to the UK and net migration have both fallen significantly.

NHS waiting lists down - The overall number of waits for treatment in England in April was 7.22 million, down from 7.62 million in June 2024, a decrease of 400,000.

Energy bills up - The latest domestic energy price cap set by Ofgem, the energy regulator, for the summer of 2026 is an annual rate of £1,862 for a typical household - in part reflecting the impact of global events like the Iran war.

Benefit spending increased - The latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility show the total UK welfare bill - including the state pension - rising from 10.7% of UK GDP in 2024-25 to 11.1% by 2029-30. Starmer attempted to curb the rising welfare bill, but was forced by his own backbenchers to retreat.

was forced by his own backbenchers to retreat.
It will now be interesting to see what develops with many of these same MPs with Burnham.

Again.

Crocodylus springs to mind….

Rachel Reeves on the verge of tears from what I saw.

Starmer's last PMQs (BBC):

Conservative MP Jerome Mayhew says the PM "appears to have been brought down by an inability to articulate a plan for government".

Mayhew then says "it must be tough" to be replaced by someone "who refuses to say whether he's even got a plan", referring to Andy Burnham.

He asks whether Starmer agrees that the House will "be missing him" in a few months time.

Burnham is not going to be able to do all that much with things kicking off with Trump/Iran again and the ensuing effect on prices and stability.

This is beyond simplistic - one ongoing exogenous event does not come close to the totality of the UK’s structural problems.

Burnham is not going to be able to do all that much with things kicking off with Trump/Iran again and the ensuing effect on prices and stability.

Also, I had to pay tax on account of interest (on a small scale here) based on higher previous interest rates and HMRC are going to have to pay me back next year. I cannot be the only one. I wonder how much tax revenue they are trying to take upfront that is going to come back to bite them. I know I should have put it in an ISA but I need some money to support one of my DC at uni as we have to top up like most parents.

It is totally legitimate but feels something of a hollow victory as Burnham would share himself, as he has previously - if it wasn't him 😕

This is a weird distortion of the democratic process.

PMs have arrived before by a current PM and party leader stepping down; but I cannot ever remember this tortuous process of an MP stepping down to create a by-election with the aim of a specific person becoming an MP and then standing as party leader with the specific purpose of giving us all a new PM.

Sounds a bit of a fiddle to me .......

I shall buy a fresh lettuce.

Terrific post.

I disagree actually. I think they're are a lot of wealthy Left leaning people on Mumsnet who like to fetishise poverty (We have a household income of £300k but we still care about poor people!) types who think most people are struggling by in food banks. They can afford to loftily say 'Oh of course, I don't mind paying more tax' because what they have left is still a lot. The middle group of people who are fine but not loaded, cant. Most people are I would say are people working hard in average to decent wage, can pay their bills and feed their kids/ pay for an activitiy or two, bring their children up to go to school, get qualifications, they pay their taxes and want their kids to be able to buy a home. If that wasn't the case, no leisure activities, kids activities, retailers would survive. It's these majority people who just want to see some reward for working every day, bringing their kids up, feeding them properly and sending them to school day in day out, and often they don't see it. I agree with @Araminta1003 it's these people who are just getting on with things who need to see some benefit for themselves and a future for their children that doesn't involve working their butts off to get a good education and hopefully a good job just to be taken the piss out of the whole time. My children are the same- they don't see a future here really, and I have to say, I agree with them.