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Politics

Restore to hand Burnham victory, leaked poll suggests

87 replies

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 12:41

The Telegraph are reporting today that a leaked poll of the Greater Manchester constituency put Rupert Lowe’s party at 13 per cent of the vote, sitting 11 percentage points behind Reform UK, which polled at 24 per cent.

Labour was on 35 per cent of the vote, meaning the split on the Right is expected to allow Burnham to return to Westminster.

The leaked poll, which was circulated internally among Labour staffers and published by The i Paper, places support for Restore significantly higher than the two public polls Survation has released during the Makerfield by-election campaign.

Reform sources questioned the authenticity of the latest survey, insisting that it was “disinformation” pushed out by Labour and its activists.

The party said Restore had not polled above 5 per cent of the vote in any of its internal polling.

Meanwhile, a poll by More in Common found less well-off voters without degrees are now more likely to see Reform as “the party of working people” than Labour.

Twenty-six per cent of less wealthy voters who did not go to university said Mr Farage’s party was the party that best represented working people, while 19 per cent said the same about Labour.

Among all Britons, only one third (35 per cent) said Labour was the party of working people, with 18 per cent opting for Reform.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/11/restore-to-hand-burnham-victory-leaked-poll-suggests/

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Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:02

Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 13:54

I don't think Reform want to win this one. They want Burnham to step down as Mayor and will put someone high profile in to stand there. And they'll win.

Don’t know about that … Reform are putting a lot of resources into trying to win Makerfield from what I’ve read.

It would be a real scoop for them if they could defeat Burnham. And possibly they could have done were it not for Restore.

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Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 13:54

I don't think Reform want to win this one. They want Burnham to step down as Mayor and will put someone high profile in to stand there. And they'll win.

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:52

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:44

I’m just guessing that it wouldn’t help them to win the next GE

Right now, I am not sure what would tbh. But three years is a long time in politics.

Yes it is. Which is why I’m just observing Labour at the moment and won’t make up my mind whether to vote for them again or not until much closer to the next GE.

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BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 13:45

kinkytoes · 11/06/2026 13:37

Yes it's inevitable.

You love your dreams, don’t you? Nothing is inevitable.

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:44

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:42

If Labour moves to the Left they will win back some voters but also alienate others.

The rise of Reform suggests to me there is more of an appetite for right wing politics now but obviously I don’t know what would happen if Labour moved further to the Left. I’m just guessing that it wouldn’t help them to win the next GE.

I’m just guessing that it wouldn’t help them to win the next GE

Right now, I am not sure what would tbh. But three years is a long time in politics.

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:42

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:34

Maybe. But equally if Labour moves left it might win back voters who dislike the current centrist slant.

Who knows, though 🤷‍♀️

If Labour moves to the Left they will win back some voters but also alienate others.

The rise of Reform suggests to me there is more of an appetite for right wing politics now but obviously I don’t know what would happen if Labour moved further to the Left. I’m just guessing that it wouldn’t help them to win the next GE.

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titchy · 11/06/2026 13:39

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 12:57

Call me cynical, but I feel the Telegraph might be encouraging Restore voters to switch. They are literally giving pointers.

Tories don't even feature. Poor Kemi.

How many Makerfield Restore voters read the Telegraph?

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:37

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:14

The Tories don't stand any chance in Makerfield, no. Doubt Kemi is that bothered though since it's only one constituency.

True enough.

StrictlyCoffee · 11/06/2026 13:37

Reform appeals to the uneducated, hardly news is it. Sadly for them and all of us they are also most likely to be harmed by Reform’s policies, whilst still being surrounded by just as many brown people as before.

kinkytoes · 11/06/2026 13:37

TheKittenswithMittens · 11/06/2026 13:30

Good tactic. Burnham get to lead Labour, who then lurch to the left, leading to a right-wing victory in the General election.

Yes it's inevitable.

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:36

Tiptow · 11/06/2026 13:30

Yes, I know, I’ve seen this. But they are both addressing similar issues afaics.

Lowe's ego is as big as Farage's. His party is (sadly) growing. I don't think he'd give that up to play second fiddle to Farage again.

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:34

TheKittenswithMittens · 11/06/2026 13:30

Good tactic. Burnham get to lead Labour, who then lurch to the left, leading to a right-wing victory in the General election.

Maybe. But equally if Labour moves left it might win back voters who dislike the current centrist slant.

Who knows, though 🤷‍♀️

TheKittenswithMittens · 11/06/2026 13:30

Good tactic. Burnham get to lead Labour, who then lurch to the left, leading to a right-wing victory in the General election.

Tiptow · 11/06/2026 13:30

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:28

Lowe and Farage despise each other, that is why Restore came about in the first place.

Yes, I know, I’ve seen this. But they are both addressing similar issues afaics.

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:28

Tiptow · 11/06/2026 13:06

Restore and Reform really need to merge.

Lowe and Farage despise each other, that is why Restore came about in the first place.

BeasKnee · 11/06/2026 13:25

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 12:57

Call me cynical, but I feel the Telegraph might be encouraging Restore voters to switch. They are literally giving pointers.

Tories don't even feature. Poor Kemi.

I don't think you have to be a cynic to suspect this. It could just as easily be the other way around if restore voters do switch to reform - different papers would publish figures saying, for example, green voters to hand reform victory.

I think (but not 100% certain) that labour will win it but I would not be confident at all of that if it was a general election. I will never vote reform or restore and one of my biggest worries with them potentially getting a majority at a general election is how inexperienced so many of the new MPs will be. I'm not saying that career politicians are the best way to go but we're either going to end up with tons of ex-tories rebranded as reform (which begs the question why didn't you deal with these issues when under to conservative banner) or people who have no idea what the job entails, have been vetted poorly and roped in quickly to make up the numbers as they will want someone standing in every seat. They will need time to get up to speed with what it involves. A huge influx of inexperienced MPs in one go isn't ideal when their party don't exactly have a lot of current MPs who know the ropes. It'll be a shit show and I predict lots of quick by elections not long afterwards.

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 13:24

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:05

You may have a point to some extent.

However the leaked poll was first published by the i Paper.

The Telegraph just picked up the story from them.

I know, but I was more referring to the big arrow on the chart!

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 13:21

If Reform lose to Burnham by a margin equal to or less than Restore's vote share, Reform will lurch to the right to ensure a decisive victory at the next general election.

EasternStandard · 11/06/2026 13:18

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:17

She's probably enjoying it as it is not a battle she is part of.

Yep.

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 13:17

Tiptow · 11/06/2026 13:06

Restore and Reform really need to merge.

They really don’t.

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:17

EasternStandard · 11/06/2026 13:15

Agree I’m sure she’s watching Starmer and Labour implode over that.

Edited

She's probably enjoying it as it is not a battle she is part of.

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EasternStandard · 11/06/2026 13:15

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:14

The Tories don't stand any chance in Makerfield, no. Doubt Kemi is that bothered though since it's only one constituency.

Agree I’m sure she’s watching Starmer and Labour implode over that.

ManyShapesOfPasta · 11/06/2026 13:14

I think it'll mean we're more likely to get a Reform government next, but there we are.

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:14

TemperanceWest · 11/06/2026 12:57

Call me cynical, but I feel the Telegraph might be encouraging Restore voters to switch. They are literally giving pointers.

Tories don't even feature. Poor Kemi.

The Tories don't stand any chance in Makerfield, no. Doubt Kemi is that bothered though since it's only one constituency.

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Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 13:11

kinkytoes · 11/06/2026 13:07

Wow, so you actually like the shit show that's going on right now? 😬

Are you referring to the current Labour government?

I wouldn't go so far as to say they are good, but I definitely think Labour are preferable to Reform.

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