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Politics

Restore to hand Burnham victory, leaked poll suggests

87 replies

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 12:41

The Telegraph are reporting today that a leaked poll of the Greater Manchester constituency put Rupert Lowe’s party at 13 per cent of the vote, sitting 11 percentage points behind Reform UK, which polled at 24 per cent.

Labour was on 35 per cent of the vote, meaning the split on the Right is expected to allow Burnham to return to Westminster.

The leaked poll, which was circulated internally among Labour staffers and published by The i Paper, places support for Restore significantly higher than the two public polls Survation has released during the Makerfield by-election campaign.

Reform sources questioned the authenticity of the latest survey, insisting that it was “disinformation” pushed out by Labour and its activists.

The party said Restore had not polled above 5 per cent of the vote in any of its internal polling.

Meanwhile, a poll by More in Common found less well-off voters without degrees are now more likely to see Reform as “the party of working people” than Labour.

Twenty-six per cent of less wealthy voters who did not go to university said Mr Farage’s party was the party that best represented working people, while 19 per cent said the same about Labour.

Among all Britons, only one third (35 per cent) said Labour was the party of working people, with 18 per cent opting for Reform.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/11/restore-to-hand-burnham-victory-leaked-poll-suggests/

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 15:20

Portakalkedi · 11/06/2026 15:12

A pity that Restore and Reform could not merge, or that Restore could not stand down for this particular by-election, for the sole purpose of not letting AB win.

Logically you might think Restore should have stood aside to give Reform a better chance of winning.

However, Farage and Rupert Lowe are enemies on a personal level so that helps to explain why they didn't.

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MasterGland · 11/06/2026 15:17

Portakalkedi · 11/06/2026 15:12

A pity that Restore and Reform could not merge, or that Restore could not stand down for this particular by-election, for the sole purpose of not letting AB win.

I think Restore are thinking longer term with this. They are using this election to build their national profile, particularly amongst those voters who don't spend as much time online as their core base.

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 15:16

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 15:04

Yes, that's the one. So your earlier assertion that he hasn't been up there "not even once", was incorrect.

I stand corrected. Obviously the media I use for information weren’t invited so I had no way of knowing.

Mischance · 11/06/2026 15:14

Pollqueen · 11/06/2026 12:52

Well the dim, far right fascists probably know that it's a by election. Not bye 🤷‍♀️

Tell that to Mr Spellcheck!

Portakalkedi · 11/06/2026 15:12

A pity that Restore and Reform could not merge, or that Restore could not stand down for this particular by-election, for the sole purpose of not letting AB win.

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 15:04

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:57

A press conference to which only selected media were permitted attendance.

Yes, that's the one. So your earlier assertion that he hasn't been up there "not even once", was incorrect.

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:57

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 14:45

Farage literally gave a press conference in Makerfield yesterday.

A press conference to which only selected media were permitted attendance.

EasternStandard · 11/06/2026 14:54

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 14:53

Yes, and prior to that he had been in Makerfield late May when he turned up at that cafe and annoyed people. I am refuting the suggestion, made earlier in the thread, that he has not been to Makerfield. He has. I'm not a Reform voter but I think those on the left do themselves no favours by being disingenuous in this political climate.

Yep and Labour have bigger issues to worry about.

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 14:53

Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 14:48

The first one, anywhere, for 50 days.

Yes, and prior to that he had been in Makerfield late May when he turned up at that cafe and annoyed people. I am refuting the suggestion, made earlier in the thread, that he has not been to Makerfield. He has. I'm not a Reform voter but I think those on the left do themselves no favours by being disingenuous in this political climate.

Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 14:48

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 14:45

Farage literally gave a press conference in Makerfield yesterday.

The first one, anywhere, for 50 days.

MasterGland · 11/06/2026 14:45

Farage literally gave a press conference in Makerfield yesterday.

Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 14:41

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:32

Yes. I’m talking about platforms like national radio or television. People in Makerfield watch & listen to that too.

Farage is not the Makerfield candidate he is the party leader. Though I expect he will be there on polling day.

Umm, it's possible to do TV and radio and go to Makerfield or Clacton or parliamentbut where exactly is he making all these TV and radio appearances? Afaik he's not doing any of that either, since the £5m story broke. 50+ days MIA.

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:41

PeachOctopus · 11/06/2026 14:36

Farrage has blown it somewhat.
He got rid of a lot of the on line Right activists that initially supported him and moved towards the centre and then came all the defections and it started looking like a retirement home for Tories.

There’s the mysterious £5 million too.

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:36

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:33

Jesus, the excuses!

I’m surprised if people believe Reform aren’t putting a lot of resources into winning Makerfield.

That would make a convenient excuse to justify losing, if they do.

OP posts:
PeachOctopus · 11/06/2026 14:36

Farrage has blown it somewhat.
He got rid of a lot of the on line Right activists that initially supported him and moved towards the centre and then came all the defections and it started looking like a retirement home for Tories.

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:33

Jesus, the excuses!

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:32

Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 14:24

Bigger platforms than Makerfield for the Makerfield by-election?

That sums up his contempt for the electorate everywhere.

Yes. I’m talking about platforms like national radio or television. People in Makerfield watch & listen to that too.

Farage is not the Makerfield candidate he is the party leader. Though I expect he will be there on polling day.

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MasterGland · 11/06/2026 14:32

Farage has been to Makerfield. Remember the furore over the impromptu cafe visit a few weeks back?

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:28

Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 14:24

Bigger platforms than Makerfield for the Makerfield by-election?

That sums up his contempt for the electorate everywhere.

It certainly does. He hasn’t held a press conference for seven weeks now either.

Pinkbus · 11/06/2026 14:24

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:22

How do I know? They can put a lot of resources into knocking on doors etc without wheeling him out. He’ll be talking about Makerfield on bigger platforms.

Bigger platforms than Makerfield for the Makerfield by-election?

That sums up his contempt for the electorate everywhere.

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:22

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:18

Where’s Farage then?

How do I know? They can put a lot of resources into knocking on doors etc without wheeling him out. He’ll be talking about Makerfield on bigger platforms.

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BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:18

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:09

Yes a lot of resource as you would expect given how important the seat is.

Where’s Farage then?

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:09

BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:07

So much resource that Farage hasn’t gone up there. Not even once.

Yes a lot of resource as you would expect given how important the seat is.

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BIossomtoes · 11/06/2026 14:07

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:02

Don’t know about that … Reform are putting a lot of resources into trying to win Makerfield from what I’ve read.

It would be a real scoop for them if they could defeat Burnham. And possibly they could have done were it not for Restore.

So much resource that Farage hasn’t gone up there. Not even once.

EasternStandard · 11/06/2026 14:06

Twiglets1 · 11/06/2026 14:02

Don’t know about that … Reform are putting a lot of resources into trying to win Makerfield from what I’ve read.

It would be a real scoop for them if they could defeat Burnham. And possibly they could have done were it not for Restore.

True. If Restore wasn’t in it it’d be very close. It’s still close but edges towards Burnham.