New poll finds only privileged people will vote for Labour - but why?

No that is not right at all. The markets want to see someone make good financial decisions to bring the UK back to financial viability.

So for a country in debt who increases this debt each month good decisions are things like cutting spending, growing economy, investing in industries, apprenticeships for young people.
Bad decisions that signal to the market we have no intention of trying to return to financial viability is pumping more money into the NHS, an ever increasing welfare bill etc

It's actual a move to the left that will cause the markets alarm. So if KS gets the boot and is replaced by someone more left wing or worse god forbid the greens were in charge.

I'm not a Starmer enthusiast but I agree that it's probably not good for our economy/international standing to vote in a populist grifter

Have Reform actually costed up any of their policies? Or do they just say pithy things like "take benefits off scroungers"?

I absolutely agree with your post re leadership but do you really think KS is a strong leader? He has made lots of U turns and does not seem able to make tough decisions at all. He has also increased welfare and given pay rises to train drivers for one (which seemed strange to me) in a time where the UK pays out more each month than it brings in. Not a good position to be in.

I thought he was right to means test the WFA for pensioners but then he u-turned on it. This type of thing has lost him credibility.

If I saw him recognising the financial hole we are in and slowly but steadily start fixing it then I would be okay with him only making baby steps. This does not seem to be happening at all though.

You watch the UK borrowing rate shoot up if Farage gets a whiff of power. The IMF would be on the doorstep in weeks.

I'm probably going to vote reform. Used to vote Tory. Uni Educated, further professional qualification, in high tax bracket by about 26 until I retired at 51.

So I don't think I fit your criteria.

My reasons for voting for them is right now the UK borrows money each month. That means the debt we pay is going up and up. The rate we get charged to borrow is also high now as we (the UK) are now being recognised as making a financial balls up of things.

So I'll say that again each month the UK spends more than it brings in.

Reform are the only one that has recognised some of the problems and are saying they will change things. This is not what people want to hear. It's what needs to be done. So the NHS - we can't afford it so it needs to go in it's current form. Heck we can't afford it and it doesn't even work very well in lots of areas either. So not a vote winner to say this but true all the same.

Other things that might be unpleasant but are also true. We have too many people now squashed into a small island. Everywhere is too crowded. Roads, small houses, noise, schools are overcrowded, can't get GP appointment. Charity is one thing but at what point did we stop looking after our own country and our own citizens. Someone needs to tell UK to put it's own oxygen mask on before it helps others. So yes we do need someone to do something about immigration. Not because we hate people from other places but because we are drowning and we need to help ourselves (illegal ones who commit crimes should be put on a row boat and pushed back out to sea, no excuses). Why are we paying France a fortune to stop them leaving France and coming here. We should employ our own people (creating jobs) and control it ourselves.

Law and Order - policing is on it's knees. Shoplifting, antisocial behaviour, lack of respect. It's a mess. The number of frontline officers is shocking low. Reform have promised us better law and order and more fitting punishment.

They are by no means perfect. They are keeping the triple lock which I actually think is a mistake (they are obviously wanting to retain the grey vote of which I am one). However I think it would be fair to just increase state pension by say inflation each year and be done with it. However they have promised to address our bloated welfare bill. Far too many people not working due to conditions that do not warrant it.

Again not what alot of people want to hear but it needs to be done.

Do I think NF is in it for himself. Of course he is. They all are. I actually think KS is a decent man but he just does not have the balls to run a country and make tough decisions. We need someone who is going to change things because they need changed and they are not going to be popular when they do it. Remember Maggie Thatcher - lots hated her (I didn't) but dam she was tough and firm and didn't back down. It's a shame we can't clone her.

We help ourselves now (and it's going to be ugly) or we wait for the markets to charge us so much interest we can't afford it (or worse refuse to lend to us at all). Alternatively we wait for the IMF bailout (seventies anyone?) and then they will slash welfare, NHS anyway.

The ugly truth is the UK is currently not financially viable. We are very vunerable to the current war because we import so much of our power and so much of our food. Growth is stagnant, inflation is a problem (again anyone remember the seventies with inflation). Unemployment is rising, welfare is rising and the UK now pays more to borrow than Greece and Morocco. Now that is just embarrassing.

I think it’s also more than finance and comfort. Besides actual impacts, and perceived impacts (which might be true or not), or even incorrect conclusions. There’s also expectations.

People who are educated, tend to move to big cities or strong economic areas which are melting pots. So no one is expecting a city to be anything but multicultural. It’s transient, it’s mixed and diverse. You don’t really notice immigration in this setting as it’s expected.

But this country is much larger than a few cities. People do expect local areas to be native. You can baulk at the word native there and I chose that specifically because I am not just talking about ‘white’ or British. Cornish people expect Cornwall to be Cornish. Welsh people expect wales to stay Welsh. Midlanders do not want to be flooded by wealthy southerners increasing their house prices. People are tribal whether we like it or not.

Cornish people are not racist to white people buying second homes. And two thirds of the country are not simply racists. I believe people do quite simply have the expectation that England (outside major cities) remains predominantly English and in recent decades its becoming increasingly not so at a rapid rate in many medium and small towns across the country.

I think the villages and the countryside are still predominantly English but these people visit towns for amenities and services. So they are not exempt from noticing the change.

Any data to back that up ?

I think you need to explain why immigration impacts financial comfort.

Fair enough.

So I googled and its coming up two thirds…
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-thirds-britons-believe-total-number-people-coming-uk-too-high

How many of them are so pissed off they would vote reform is another question.

Thing is this isn’t the most vocal.

It’s literally half the country. I am going to actually hazard more than half the country at this point.

It’s the silent majority who are unhappy with the level of immigration.

Immigration policy. And I think anyone anti reform will say that. Because it is true. The difficulty comes, I think, in trying to explain why that is number one for reform voters.

And I think its interesting that your follow up is abortion access. Because I think the anti abortionists might be quite similar to reform voters when it comes to immigration. They both have characteristics that drive the most vocal. Racism for Reform, and religion for pro-life. But the vocal of both these groups have become adept at deflecting from the core reasons I think.

Of course remainers didn’t understand leavers motivations. That’s because they were batshit!

I live in Spain but I’m going to vote for Brexit. Er!!

Im a farmer in Lincolnshire that needs my fruit picking but I’m going to vote for Brexit. Er!!

😂

I have no idea how that’s what you took from the article.

The three major themes are economy, sovereignty, and immigration - all pretty important headline themes politically.

To me the take away was re. the ‘left’ - because they are more educated, that is proven - are so behind on this. The default should be they understand MORE. And yet statistically they came out streets behind. That is hugely significant. It’s more than a gap. They are clearly capable.

And as a centre voter it’s super frustrating. The headline issues above are important to everyone. By making them left and right we have completely screwed ourselves over and it’s a huge driver of why we are where we are today.

Interesting article. Sort of shows turkeys voting for Christmas.

Can you for example, as you can see both sides, say what policy of the far right is most attractive. And why that policy is correct ? That is, why would you vote reform?

And the answer to that is their anti immigration policies.

That policy is obviously going to be seen as correct if you don’t like the immigration we have historically had/ continue to have.

I am not voting for reform because I don’t think it’s something you can reverse. And also I am quite tin hat about how far I think they are willing to go. I genuinely believe they want to increase the white population by banning abortion.

No they actually understand it less than the other way around. There are studies on this.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/04/leavers-have-a-better-understanding-of-remainers-motivations-than-vice-versa/

Re not understanding things. I think a good example is Trumps tariffs. That is really easy to understand. They are an import tax that the importer pays. So boom. That is the concept.

However, Trump himself keeps saying the exporting nation pays. But that is just not true. Yet he and his followers just keep parroting it.

So it's not a case of the left, or whoever, not understanding their opponents, it's a case of understanding it, but being somewhat bewildered as to why people consistently do not.

Apply that to the far right and Brexit. It is more nuanced yes, but pretty much the same applies as per Trumps tariffs.

Can you for example, as you can see both sides, say what policy of the far right is most attractive. And why that policy is correct ? That is, why would you vote reform?

Ironically, you’re making blind generalisations and failing to understand a significant amount of ‘the left’ - I’ve said already on this thread and others, but many of us on the left are from working class communities where Reform support seems to be thriving. I hate it, but I understand how we got here. And unlike populists on both the left and right would have us believe, the reasons are many and the solutions complex.

And can I make a point on this too.

It is not surprising to me poorer people have lower levels of education. As PP points out there’s a trillion reasons for this.

What to this day still surprises me is how blind (and yes I am using that word but you could write uneducated, unaware, head in sand, wilfully ignorant) the ‘left’ (again I don’t like that as I don’t think it’s actually left) are to the drivers and reasons behind the rise of the right.

You saw this quite clearly with Brexit. They just could not understand it.

And that’s really interesting because leavers very clearly understood remainers.

That is really interesting to me. I am a centre swing voter. I really do see clearly both sides. Why don’t they get it?! Is it classism, identity based blockage in the brain, lack of emotional intelligence, literal complete naivety, parallel lives, virtue signalling, echo chambers? Honestly I do not know. But that I struggle to understand more than leavers/ far right voters. And there’s ‘left’ really need to get to the bottom of that.

I am talking about all lower end jobs, and businesses too. Just because you are a xyz and hire yourself doesn’t make you devoid of the ripple effect of that.

Further than that I am just talking generally. The country has become rapidly more multicultural the past few decades and less cohesive, and less affluent. I am not saying that’s cause and effect. But that’s what people see.

I think people need to stop taking this so personally and we do need to have discussions and conversations on good faith. Unfortunately it’s actually getting worse in this regard because whilst many are actually opening up to having conversations now; actual racist people are now emboldened with the rise of the right. & Normal people don’t want to associate with that so the normal part of this conversation no one wants to have or be associated with which leaves people to act privately at the ballot box.

And to clarify again so there’s absolutely no confusion about what I am saying:
There’s nothing wrong or racist about being unhappy about the town you were born and grew up in becoming increasingly non British. Recognisably so. In the shops, in your workplace, in the schools, in the A&E waiting room. Poorer people are more likely to have been born, live, work and die in the same communities. They are more likely to see this change.

That doesn’t mean I don’t like the kind Sikh man who owns the corner shop, or my polish window cleaners or my non British friends. Or my non British colleagues. It’s not a personal thing. It’s a cumulative thing.

And no I am not going to vote reform. They are clearly racist to me, so much so I fear they will actually go down the eugenics route and ban abortion to try to get the white population up again. But lots of people don’t think that. And there’s a large portion of our society who whether we like it or not have this as such a single issue point who have repeatedly voted against immigration for over a decade now that it’s clear they are quite willing to take us all to hell in a hand basket in an attempt to resolve it.