Scottish General Election

I've just had a look at 2026 polling and, whilst YES is ahead in some, it still looks like overall the potential vote is split about half and half. I think polls need to shift consistently to YES being at 55%+ for at least 12 months before a referendum is even considered.

Maybe Swinney is banking on a refusal and the polls shifting more by 2031 when they could show that consistent support.

The GFA suggests that at least seven years must pass between referendums, most likely to prevent the possibility of "neverendums". But they've not had even one in over 25 years, and I doubt they will unless it's looking like a good majority of people would vote for reunification.

In Scotland, the polls haven't significantly shifted since 2014, so I'd say what's the point right now?

I would also say that any future referendums that do happen in the UK need a higher cut off. 50%+1 is a terrible idea. Look at Brexit for the kind of shit show that results in. My preference would be for 60/40 to enact change, and I think Nicola Sturgeon herself at one point said she didn't feel another referendum should be requested until polls changed significantly towards that.

This is not true

We are talking about Scotland on this thread

The electorate has changed beyond recognition since 2014.
There are currently 630,000 Scots who did not get to vote in 2014 who are now eligible. By 2030 it will be over 1 million.

Denying a democratic vote and trying to pretend it is superseded by a treaty from 1707 is ridiculous, the whole notion that the UK government should be in charge of this decision is anti-democratic.

No it doesn’t. It doesn’t define or use the word generation at all.

In Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement signed by the UK & Ireland defines "once in a generation" as being every seven years.

Seven years. Not fifty. Not one hundred. Seven.

The Labour & Tory Westminster governments have been far worse.

From illegal wars to not caring about thousands of us dying from Covid.

There are new fields waiting for permission for drilling to start. So far it’s not been granted but with the supply issues due to the Iranian crisis, pressure will mount for the UK to be able to have a secure access to energy.

SNP for me unless a tactical vote is needed to keep a unionist party out.

I am looking forward to the unionists trying to explain how the North Sea oil & gas fields, that were apparently bone dry just 12 years ago, have magically refilled to the point of being able to provide the entire UK with energy independence mind you.

I’m SNP 1, Scottish Greens 2 (as that’s tactically/mathematically the best way to return the highest number of pro-independence candidates (in my area specifically). Which, given the blathering, from Westminster I think is the priority at the moment!

The same situation in Stormont too.

However, as we all know "winner takes all".

Change is BADLY needed.

Why Scotland should become independent. (Ref Open Source AI 2025).

1. The "Democratic Deficit"

Scotland is often governed by parties it did not vote for.

Voting History: Since 1945, Scotland has only voted for a Conservative majority once (1955), yet has been under Conservative rule for much of that time.

Parliamentary Sovereignty: The UK Parliament retains ultimate power and can undermine or even abolish the Scottish Parliament, as seen with the Internal Market Act which limited devolved powers.

House of Lords: Scotland is partially governed by 764 unelected peers in the House of Lords, a body that has no democratic accountability to the Scottish people.

1. Rejoining the European Union.

62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU but were forced to leave.

Economic Scale: Rejoining the EU would give Scotland access to a single market of over 450 million people—seven times the size of the UK market.

Individual Rights: Independence would restore the right for Scots to live, work, and study across 27 European nations.

Energy Potential: As an EU member, Scotland could become a major exporter of green hydrogen and offshore wind energy to the European market. Scotland is already energy self-sufficient due renewables.

1. Economic Sovereignty (The "Small Nation" Model)

Unionists often argue Scotland is "too small" or "too poor." But compare that argument to similar successful independent nations.

Comparable Success: Countries like Denmark, Ireland, and Norway—which are similar in size to Scotland—consistently outperform the UK on measures like GDP per capita and social equality.

Resource Control: Independence would give Scotland full control over its own revenues, including 96% of the UK’s oil and 63% of its natural gas production, rather than sharing them with Westminster.

Tailored Policy: Instead of a "one-size-fits-all" UK economic model, Scotland could tailor its own tax and investment laws to its specific strengths, such as life sciences and renewable energy.

1. Protecting the Welfare State

Policy Mitigation: The Scottish Government currently spends millions "mitigating" UK policies it disagrees with, such as the two-child benefit cap. Independence would allow these funds to be used for proactive social investment instead of just "fixing" UK-imposed poverty.

Scandinavian Model: Supporters argue independence is the only way to build a high-quality, Scandinavian-style welfare state that prioritizes well-being over austerity.

OP, it’s also interesting in your poll that the total votes for Unionist parties outnumber the independents.

Reasons for wanting Constitutional Change.

The UK is the single most centralised advanced economy in the western world.

London is the political, financial & investment centre that shares little with regions outside of the South Eastern UK. Rather, resources flow into London: workers seeking higher wages; taxes & other revenues; infrastructure & other investment.

The above facts can be researched online.

Westminster was & is the English Parliament. The Scots, Irish & Welsh were invited to attend post Acts of Union (or conquest in Wale's case) in order to facilitate their respective nation's representations.

At some point, somehow Westminster has morphed or mutated into a "Uber Parliament" dictating Laws to be enacted throughout all 4 nations irrespective of what representations might be made by Scots, *Irish or Welsh politicians.

Power became Absolute & Sovereign confined to Westminster.

Until Devolution.

*Ireland is a special case in that they retook their independence by force but of course not all wished to leave the UK & Northern Ireland was born.

I’m bored now. I’m going to cut you off.

A pointless degree is one that is never used!
For instance, a ‘fashion’ degree. Never used, as the person works in bank!

Ah Maggie, what a woman.

Not soon enough, sadly :)