Importance of Gorton and Denton

Your figures below in the 18.01 post did you quote overall unemployment figures rather than youth unemployment as in the post? None look correct, France is higher than that. I mean they all will be out but I looked up that one.

This is a bit like being asked ' what is the significance of who wins the world cup' without being allowed to talk about the teams.
I hope you don't mind me commenting. But it's a bit of a struggle to keep within the remit of the post and answer the question at the same time.
Are you someone who tries not to be political?
There are many women who go round telling other women not to be political. And by that they mean you can talk about the local charity cafe or the lack of hairdressers but don't get into parties and all that messy business.
The significance of this election is it's an indication of how far Reform are being emboldened to gain power through triggering racism, misogyny basically bringing out the worst in communities. You can't say that without saying it. The flip side being how badly people are affected by cost of living, and how little Reform are actually going to do about that. . Reforms sinister agenda is a major part of the answer to your question.
Why wouldn't you want people to say that-

Definition of unemployed is much tighter nowadays. (I wonder why.)

Because ONS are UK stats. not European countries.
about:blank Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the national statistical institute of the United Kingdom, so the core statistics it produces itself are focused on the UK covering the whole UK or its constituent countries (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and smaller UK areas (local authorities, regions, etc.). That’s what its main mandate is under UK law.

A different interpretation is that unemployment was artificially low in the decade from 2015. It certainly looks that way in the context of the figures from 1979 to 2015. Thatcher didn’t manage to bring them down, the unemployment rate more than doubled under her government.

ETA I’ve quoted the wrong post. Sorry. 😱

Not sure why your figures don’t tally with ONS in the quote but yes it’s a Labour issue.

They are in power and have chosen the tax on jobs and policy impacting that age group. Why not look at Labour’s failings on this?

We are by far not the worst country in Europe for youth unemployment. It is not a Labour created issue.

1. Finland – ~10.2 %

2. Spain – ~10.0 %

3. Sweden – ~9.0 %

4. France – ~7.7 %

5. Latvia – ~7.0 %

6. Lithuania – ~6.6 %

7. Estonia – ~6.3 %

8. Belgium – ~6.4 %

1. Romania – ~6.0 %

10. Italy – ~5.6 %

11. United Kingdom – ~5.2 % (ONS data Q4 2025)

12. Germany – ~3.8 %

You also need to consider years of Tory austerity, Brexit (costing billions extra) and the cost of living crisis being a financial drag on the economy:

less spending → less business expansion → slower hiring

Covid too as people have stopped going out as much in general and have found other ways to entertain themselves.

Do you have dc that might want a job soon @BurntBroccoli?

Youth unemployment has jumped to an 11-year high after Labour increased the cost of hiring staff.

As official data showed 16.1pc of 16 to 24-year-olds seeking work have not yet found a job.

The figure is firmly above the Covid lockdown peak of 15.3pc seen in the summer of 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Shall we look at those stats more broadly over a longer period?
Unemployment stats UK:

1979 5.4 % (Thatcher)

1980 6.8 %

1981 9.6 %

1982 10.7 %

1983 11.5 %

1984 11.8 %

1985 11.4 %

1986 11.3 %

1987 10.4 %

1988 8.6 %

1989 7.2 %

1990 7.1 %

1991 8.9 %

1992 9.9 %

1993 10.4 %

1994 9.5 %

1995 8.6 %

1996 - 8.1%

1997- 6.9% (Blair)

1998 - 6.2 %

1999 - 6 %

2000 - 5.4%

2001 - 5.1 %

2002 - 5.2 %

2003 - 5.0 %

2004 - 4.8 %

2005 - 4.8 %

2006 - 5.4 %

2007 - 5.3 %

2008 - 5.7 %

2009 - 7.6% (Worldwide Banking crisis)

2010 - 7.9 % (Cameron)

2011 8.1%

2012 7.9%

2013 7.6%

2014 6.2%

2015 5.4%

2016 4.9%

2017 4.4%

2018 4.1%

2019 3.8%

2020 4.6%

2021 4.6%

2022 3.8%

2023 4.1%

2024 4.3%

2025 5.0–5.2%

The reason why is that economically left wing politics tends to be based on emotion and economically right wing politics tends to be based on logic, it's classic head vs heart.

So from a left wing perspective why shouldn't all those rich companies pay higher NI contributions - or mean the workers do, so should the rich shareholders/ owners of the companies.

From a right wing perspective- but then you disincentivise companies from hiring workers.

From a left wing perspective- well if they don't hire workers then the company will go bust and then the rich shareholders will lose their money- so they will simply have to absorb the NI increase.

From a right wing perspective- the company will either not grow, scale back its operations in the UK or just move abroad.

They are pushing for one in Dublin 🙄
Sorry to derail

That is easy to get it’s a pity Labour don’t get it.

On voting idk maybe they think it’ll draw more to Labour, I hope not it’s a terrible spiral to get in to.

Taxa on something discourages behaviour whether that be cigarettes, cars, alcohol or even speeding fines could be seen as a form of taxation to discourage speeding.

Therefore it doesn't take a genius to figure out that increasing employer NI contributions will discourage the hiring of people and surprise surprise unemployment figures go up.

I cannot imagine this will help Labour in G&D….

Unemployment has risen to its highest level in almost five years, official data shows.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.2pc in the final quarter of last year, which was the highest since January 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It is the latest sign that the UK’s jobs market is continuing to deteriorate. The unemployment rate has either risen or remained flat since August 2024.
It stood at 5.1pc in the three months to November.

Perhaps yes when Reform were new but I feel they hit peak transfer of Labour voters a while back.

We are seeing them mainly move to Green currently.

That isn’t true. Erstwhile Labour voters are going LibDem or Green. You may have noticed that the high profile Labour supporter Farage boasted he was about to announce never materialised. Remind me how many Tory MPs, current and sitting, have defected.

You’re absolutely right - what I wrote was both confused and confusing. Thank you for clarifying it.

OK, so you don't accept that people vote on the basis of self interest or deeply held beliefs and convictions, how do you think people decide how to vote? I'm genuinely interested.

Your line starting ‘if we accept’ for example no I don’t agree with what follows, nor the self interest posts nor the deeply held value posts. Basically to have a conversation all of that would have to go and you’d have to back up a bit on the assumptions.

Yes I get that. But you seemed to imply the colour purple has some sigificance in relation to Reform. You said:That holds even down to the colours, red and blue equalling purple, for goodness sake.

I thought perhaps you had confused Reform's colours with those of UKIP.

It’s the result of the mix

That holds even down to the colours, red and blue equalling purple, for goodness sake

What is the significance of purple?

There is a fundamental assumption here that the values of Labour and Reform are at different ends of the spectrum.

If you think this, it must indeed be difficult to understand why so many people seem to be moving all the way across.

However, Reform has always positioned itself to appeal to both L and C and has taken votes from each in the past. This is not a coincidence.

It looks to me as if it’s all been cleverly thought out by political
geniuses who - key point - completely understand what drives loyal voters for each of L and C.

That holds even down to the colours, red and blue equalling purple, for goodness sake.