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Politics

Importance of Gorton and Denton

233 replies

Acommonreader · 01/02/2026 10:48

I don’t want to get into the candidates or parties here! Please can someone tell me why huge attention is being given to this by election ?
I know that it’s been Labour for a long time but it seems to be publicised as hugely important to all concerned. Is it just a potential indication of future voting or something else?
I have been looking for information but it’s all about the candidates rather than the wider significance of the results beyond the victor. I’m genuinely just try to understand the wider picture. Thanks

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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EasternStandard · 19/02/2026 10:47

C8H10N4O2 · 19/02/2026 10:36

It was worse than that - it was the Thatcher era which made unemployment and a life on benefits socially acceptable. As a child my parents' generation and community would bend over backwards for someone hitting hard times but had no time for those choosing idleness - feckless men in particular were condemned socially for not living up to their responsibilities. That was enough to keep all but total losers doing their best for their families.

The wholesale destruction of huge sectors of work in such a short period of time meant no realistic prospect of work in many areas, even for the strivers - many WC communities were left workless and hopeless. (I’m sure some think they should have all have hopped on their bikes). In that climate there is no realistic hope, unemployment/underemployment and dependency became the norm.

The comments often seen here along the lines of “not worth taking the job as its not a lot more than benefits” are the direct inheritance of that era's neo liberal abandoning of the working classes to the market. Ditto the trashing of apprenticeship schemes as a consequence of “deregulation of labour” in that era.

Well you’re getting increasing youth employment with Labour now, so best to look at the present and understand the issues they’re facing today.

BIossomtoes · 19/02/2026 10:44

C8H10N4O2 · 19/02/2026 10:36

It was worse than that - it was the Thatcher era which made unemployment and a life on benefits socially acceptable. As a child my parents' generation and community would bend over backwards for someone hitting hard times but had no time for those choosing idleness - feckless men in particular were condemned socially for not living up to their responsibilities. That was enough to keep all but total losers doing their best for their families.

The wholesale destruction of huge sectors of work in such a short period of time meant no realistic prospect of work in many areas, even for the strivers - many WC communities were left workless and hopeless. (I’m sure some think they should have all have hopped on their bikes). In that climate there is no realistic hope, unemployment/underemployment and dependency became the norm.

The comments often seen here along the lines of “not worth taking the job as its not a lot more than benefits” are the direct inheritance of that era's neo liberal abandoning of the working classes to the market. Ditto the trashing of apprenticeship schemes as a consequence of “deregulation of labour” in that era.

Bullseye 🎯

C8H10N4O2 · 19/02/2026 10:36

BIossomtoes · 19/02/2026 07:01

Unemployment nearly doubled while Thatcher was in power.

It was worse than that - it was the Thatcher era which made unemployment and a life on benefits socially acceptable. As a child my parents' generation and community would bend over backwards for someone hitting hard times but had no time for those choosing idleness - feckless men in particular were condemned socially for not living up to their responsibilities. That was enough to keep all but total losers doing their best for their families.

The wholesale destruction of huge sectors of work in such a short period of time meant no realistic prospect of work in many areas, even for the strivers - many WC communities were left workless and hopeless. (I’m sure some think they should have all have hopped on their bikes). In that climate there is no realistic hope, unemployment/underemployment and dependency became the norm.

The comments often seen here along the lines of “not worth taking the job as its not a lot more than benefits” are the direct inheritance of that era's neo liberal abandoning of the working classes to the market. Ditto the trashing of apprenticeship schemes as a consequence of “deregulation of labour” in that era.

Warmlight1 · 19/02/2026 09:44

BIossomtoes · 19/02/2026 09:42

Bookies’ odds are usually a more accurate indicator than polls. They’ve got a vested interest in calling it right.

Yes but I wonder what are they basing it on other than the number of people who betted?

BIossomtoes · 19/02/2026 09:42

Warmlight1 · 19/02/2026 09:28

The op has specified she doesn't want to get into the candidates or parties. So most likely people are trying not to mention them.
I'm personally finding this discussion quite Interesting- like I've not seen an election where the reference point is the bookies before? Is that perhaps the significance?
I am waiting for the You Gov poll from Nadhom.Zahawis old company- which might influence people how to tactically vote
or can it be trusted now he's in bed ne if the parties?
What does an absence of polls signify?
So.many questions.

Bookies’ odds are usually a more accurate indicator than polls. They’ve got a vested interest in calling it right.

1dayatatime · 19/02/2026 09:42

Warmlight1 · 19/02/2026 09:28

The op has specified she doesn't want to get into the candidates or parties. So most likely people are trying not to mention them.
I'm personally finding this discussion quite Interesting- like I've not seen an election where the reference point is the bookies before? Is that perhaps the significance?
I am waiting for the You Gov poll from Nadhom.Zahawis old company- which might influence people how to tactically vote
or can it be trusted now he's in bed ne if the parties?
What does an absence of polls signify?
So.many questions.

Every election I've followed references the betting odds market.

There have also been countless polls on this by election, the reason there is a difference between the polls and the betting odds is that the betting market takes tactical voting into consideration.

MunicipalDarwinism · 19/02/2026 09:35

Find Out Now ran a poll but it was only of 143 people, so a bit meaningless. But the findings were:

Reform UK: 36%
Labour Party: 33%
Green Party: 21%
Conservative Party: 8%
Liberal Democrats: 3%
Other: 0%

Warmlight1 · 19/02/2026 09:28

MunicipalDarwinism · 19/02/2026 08:04

How odd of you to drag up a post from nearly three weeks ago in order to sneer at a poster.

I don't get your point, anyway. Why does patooties need to mention that vile twat's name in her post of 1/2/26? She doesn't mention Hannah Spencer by name either. Or the Tory, whose name I can't remember.

The op has specified she doesn't want to get into the candidates or parties. So most likely people are trying not to mention them.
I'm personally finding this discussion quite Interesting- like I've not seen an election where the reference point is the bookies before? Is that perhaps the significance?
I am waiting for the You Gov poll from Nadhom.Zahawis old company- which might influence people how to tactically vote
or can it be trusted now he's in bed ne if the parties?
What does an absence of polls signify?
So.many questions.

MunicipalDarwinism · 19/02/2026 08:04

HappilyFreeNow · 19/02/2026 07:45

Precisely -note how she doesn’t dare mention Goodwin 😂

How odd of you to drag up a post from nearly three weeks ago in order to sneer at a poster.

I don't get your point, anyway. Why does patooties need to mention that vile twat's name in her post of 1/2/26? She doesn't mention Hannah Spencer by name either. Or the Tory, whose name I can't remember.

HappilyFreeNow · 19/02/2026 07:45

Dragonflytamer · 01/02/2026 19:32

Although a Labour campaigner is hardly going to be promoting the message that they think they are going to loss are they?

Precisely -note how she doesn’t dare mention Goodwin 😂

MunicipalDarwinism · 19/02/2026 07:20

patooties · 18/02/2026 13:14

The Greens and Reform trying to organise a hustings without the Labour candidate was interesting.

Seems they are BOTH trying to make it look like it’s a two horse race. What have they learned recently that’s made them panic about Labour?

I might be wrong - but like I say - this ain’t my first rodeo and the Labour data looks good.

Thanks Patooties, your posts are really informative.

I wondered if you have seen this tweet from Goodwin? Seems to me he wants to stir things up/intimidate people.

Importance of Gorton and Denton
BIossomtoes · 19/02/2026 07:01

Velentia · 18/02/2026 17:41

Is this the only election that we have had since the GE? That makes it important.
The 'excitement' about Andy Burnham brought it a lot of attention.
I saw some information on YouTube that Unemployment has increased under every Labour Government since WW2. Is this true?

Unemployment nearly doubled while Thatcher was in power.

BurntBroccoli · 19/02/2026 00:19

Velentia · 18/02/2026 17:41

Is this the only election that we have had since the GE? That makes it important.
The 'excitement' about Andy Burnham brought it a lot of attention.
I saw some information on YouTube that Unemployment has increased under every Labour Government since WW2. Is this true?

No.

CommonlyKnownAs · 18/02/2026 17:59

Velentia · 18/02/2026 17:41

Is this the only election that we have had since the GE? That makes it important.
The 'excitement' about Andy Burnham brought it a lot of attention.
I saw some information on YouTube that Unemployment has increased under every Labour Government since WW2. Is this true?

No not at all, some areas had local elections last year and there was a parliamentary byelection back in May as well.

Velentia · 18/02/2026 17:41

Is this the only election that we have had since the GE? That makes it important.
The 'excitement' about Andy Burnham brought it a lot of attention.
I saw some information on YouTube that Unemployment has increased under every Labour Government since WW2. Is this true?

patooties · 18/02/2026 13:14

MunicipalDarwinism · 18/02/2026 12:23

I know. The other poster I mentioned isn't though, I don't think? The change in odds means there are increasing numbers of bets being placed on Labour to win. Something must be driving that.

Anyway, just over a week to go and we'll find out.

The Greens and Reform trying to organise a hustings without the Labour candidate was interesting.

Seems they are BOTH trying to make it look like it’s a two horse race. What have they learned recently that’s made them panic about Labour?

I might be wrong - but like I say - this ain’t my first rodeo and the Labour data looks good.

patooties · 18/02/2026 12:42

EasternStandard · 18/02/2026 12:09

I mean it’s from a Labour campaigner.

You seem to really want an argument with me - continuously ‘picking me up’ on things. please stop - me ‘posting on Mumsnet’ makes zero difference to the eventual outcome in g and d - it’s my opinion. I’m allowed one.

I have made the point multiple times over multiple threads that this is merely my opinion- I am an elected member and a seasoned campaigner, i I have previously worked for the party and have campaigned for many years at by elections (always difficult mid term of an unpopular government).

I have told people on this thread my experience of being on the doorsteps - which is ‘the vote is holding up’ much better than I thought it would.

My ‘being a Labour person’ should not render my posts null.

MunicipalDarwinism · 18/02/2026 12:23

EasternStandard · 18/02/2026 12:09

I mean it’s from a Labour campaigner.

I know. The other poster I mentioned isn't though, I don't think? The change in odds means there are increasing numbers of bets being placed on Labour to win. Something must be driving that.

Anyway, just over a week to go and we'll find out.

EasternStandard · 18/02/2026 12:09

MunicipalDarwinism · 18/02/2026 12:03

Thanks patooties, really good to learn what is happening on the ground.

Edited

I mean it’s from a Labour campaigner.

MunicipalDarwinism · 18/02/2026 12:03

patooties · 18/02/2026 11:50

The Labour vote is holding up on the doorstep. We have decades of data.

Every time the greens open their mouths they lose votes and they don’t have a decent doorstep game, blue haired posh southern students are not great advocates for a very working class area with a high level of BAME residents. The greens do not have data as they have never bothered to campaign there. Same with reform.

if Angeliki loses then it will not be her fault. I really feel for her - she’s going a great job and is a really credible candidate.

Thanks patooties, really good to learn what is happening on the ground.

EasternStandard · 18/02/2026 11:56

patooties · 18/02/2026 11:50

The Labour vote is holding up on the doorstep. We have decades of data.

Every time the greens open their mouths they lose votes and they don’t have a decent doorstep game, blue haired posh southern students are not great advocates for a very working class area with a high level of BAME residents. The greens do not have data as they have never bothered to campaign there. Same with reform.

if Angeliki loses then it will not be her fault. I really feel for her - she’s going a great job and is a really credible candidate.

Idk it seems to be countered by Labour’s woeful SM campaign which seems to over focus on Greens and Reform rather than their positives.

If she does lose I’m sure more eyes will be on Starmer over it anyway.

patooties · 18/02/2026 11:50

The Labour vote is holding up on the doorstep. We have decades of data.

Every time the greens open their mouths they lose votes and they don’t have a decent doorstep game, blue haired posh southern students are not great advocates for a very working class area with a high level of BAME residents. The greens do not have data as they have never bothered to campaign there. Same with reform.

if Angeliki loses then it will not be her fault. I really feel for her - she’s going a great job and is a really credible candidate.

MunicipalDarwinism · 18/02/2026 11:46

This is interesting. Gorton and Denton odds were 12/1 last week for Labour. Now 6/1.

There must be a lot of people out there suddenly betting on Labour to win. Why, I wonder?

(I did see a post from which said word is from journalists/MPs that Labour is expected to hold the seat).

Wizeman · 18/02/2026 11:39

BurntBroccoli · 17/02/2026 18:01

We are by far not the worst country in Europe for youth unemployment. It is not a Labour created issue.

  1. Finland – ~10.2 %

  2. Spain – ~10.0 %

  3. Sweden – ~9.0 %

  4. France – ~7.7 %

  5. Latvia – ~7.0 %

  6. Lithuania – ~6.6 %

  7. Estonia – ~6.3 %

  8. Belgium – ~6.4 %

  1. Romania – ~6.0 %
  1. Italy – ~5.6 %

  2. United Kingdom – ~5.2 % (ONS data Q4 2025)

  3. Germany – ~3.8 %

Edited

Our rate of youth unemployment is increasing very quickly, thats the worrying thing.

Warmlight1 · 18/02/2026 10:06

Acommonreader · 18/02/2026 09:36

Thank you for perfectly illustrating why I asked the question in the way I did.
I asked a genuine question about the machine of politics and how it works.
I did not request a bunfight about the parties or candidates. Such views are readily available as I stated.
I did not need a patronising lecture about the shit show that is Reform. But you gave me one anyway.
Thanks to everyone else who actually read my question and respectfully answered . I appreciate you all sharing your knowledge.

Ok Well it sounds like you know more than most about the machine of politics.