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Original poster

Scared about a poll I read where Reform wins outright in First Past the Post????

214 replies

fixingmylife · 10/05/2025 17:50

I guess we are years away from a General Election, but I am scared about the rise in populism and the seemingly popular Reform. I think it would be unthinkable to have Farage as our Prime Minister. I don't want a small state, private NHS, racist far right populist, Trumpist in charge of the country.

I know MN is generally fairly anti Reform, Brexit etc, but where are all these Reform voters. I don't know anyone personally who has admitted they would vote for them? Is it the all the disenfranchised young men?

OP posts:
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CillaBlackSmith · 10/05/2025 18:35

verycloakanddaggers · 10/05/2025 18:22

I think (and will) is a bit strong.

Also on just 20%? How are you splitting the other 80% in this scenario?

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I meant to say 20% of the electorate so if 60% vote, they would get 33% of the vote.

Abhannmor · 10/05/2025 18:33

TeenToTwenties · 10/05/2025 18:23

We had a referendum on AV and voted no.
You can't just change the voting system to stop a result you don't like.
We are a long way from a general election, how people vote in council elections or by-elections can be different from general elections (they protest vote and know it won't change the ruling party).
Maybe the other parties need to step up and explain why Reform's policies are wrong and their policies are better.

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I'm not surprised the AV Referendum was lost. I'm only surprised the Libdems agreed to it as opposed to PR by single Transferable vote. PR is a necessary condition of modern democracy. But not a sufficient one - it is not a magic bullet. It is fair though - 20% of the = 20% of the seats near as possible.

Original poster
fixingmylife · 10/05/2025 18:33

You would think if Starmer v Farage in the next election. If Starmer did the right thing and went in on a ticket against Brexit and with a move to rejoining, at least some of the Brexit madness, he would do better than he is at the moment. Surely it would be the answer if he were to be against Farage?

OP posts:
Original poster
fixingmylife · 10/05/2025 18:31

ElleneAsanto · 10/05/2025 18:28

I presume you mean this one, a BMG poll for The I. (It’s behind a paywall.)

And yes, we need PR.

Yes, this is the poll.

OP posts:
PlutoCat · 10/05/2025 18:30

ElleneAsanto · 10/05/2025 18:28

I presume you mean this one, a BMG poll for The I. (It’s behind a paywall.)

And yes, we need PR.

Thanks. That is a different poll to the one I was thinking of. It is really worrying.

ElleneAsanto · 10/05/2025 18:28

I presume you mean this one, a BMG poll for The I. (It’s behind a paywall.)

And yes, we need PR.

Scared about a poll I read where Reform wins outright in First Past the Post????
PlutoCat · 10/05/2025 18:27

CillaBlackSmith · 10/05/2025 18:18

Under FPTP they could ( and will) get a majority with 20% of the votes.
That's why we need to switch to PR now.

Even if that were true, it very much depends on the distribution of voters, as we saw in the GE. Reform might win more seats under PR than FPTP

AnneLovesGilbert · 10/05/2025 18:25

The reason you don’t know anyone who’ll admit to voting Reform is presumably down to what you think and say about them.

You might find this piece today in the Times interesting:

Voters are sick of lectures from the lanyard class

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e20cdcf4-5339-4d11-a746-3a1a9a0f11cb?shareToken=fafff15640a1853f29e71c59a43a5524

Voters are sick of lectures from the lanyard class

Reform is surging because working-class people resent the professional cadre who dismiss them as stupid and racist

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e20cdcf4-5339-4d11-a746-3a1a9a0f11cb?shareToken=fafff15640a1853f29e71c59a43a5524

TeenToTwenties · 10/05/2025 18:23

CillaBlackSmith · 10/05/2025 18:18

Under FPTP they could ( and will) get a majority with 20% of the votes.
That's why we need to switch to PR now.

We had a referendum on AV and voted no.
You can't just change the voting system to stop a result you don't like.
We are a long way from a general election, how people vote in council elections or by-elections can be different from general elections (they protest vote and know it won't change the ruling party).
Maybe the other parties need to step up and explain why Reform's policies are wrong and their policies are better.

verycloakanddaggers · 10/05/2025 18:22

CillaBlackSmith · 10/05/2025 18:18

Under FPTP they could ( and will) get a majority with 20% of the votes.
That's why we need to switch to PR now.

I think (and will) is a bit strong.

Also on just 20%? How are you splitting the other 80% in this scenario?

CillaBlackSmith · 10/05/2025 18:18

Under FPTP they could ( and will) get a majority with 20% of the votes.
That's why we need to switch to PR now.

PlutoCat · 10/05/2025 18:17

fixingmylife · 10/05/2025 17:50

I guess we are years away from a General Election, but I am scared about the rise in populism and the seemingly popular Reform. I think it would be unthinkable to have Farage as our Prime Minister. I don't want a small state, private NHS, racist far right populist, Trumpist in charge of the country.

I know MN is generally fairly anti Reform, Brexit etc, but where are all these Reform voters. I don't know anyone personally who has admitted they would vote for them? Is it the all the disenfranchised young men?

Which poll? I know there is one which put Reform at 33%, but its methodology is at odds with other polls and the pollster is a big Reform fan.

But we mustn't be complacent.

verycloakanddaggers · 10/05/2025 18:16

Where is the poll you are referring to?

Important to start with reviewing the poll itself.

genesis92 · 10/05/2025 18:12

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