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Politics

Should the Tories and Labour agree to implement PR to stop Farage becoming PM in the next election?

110 replies

JeremyVineyard · 05/05/2025 10:35

There is a very real likelihood that Farage will win the next election Partly because of this countries outdated, first past the post election system.

Under PR(Proportional Representation) parties will usually get the same percentage of seats as their percentage of the vote.

With the electorate split 3 or 4 ways and a lot of people too disillusioned to vote, he could become PM with as little as 20% or 25% of the vote under first past the post.

Under PR Reform would get 20/25% of the vote and therefore get 20/25% of the seats.

If the Tories and Labour support a referendum on PR it will likely be passed as the other smaller parties will support it.

It may mean that the Tories and Labour need to form a coalition after the next election and while this may be hard to swallow, it would be for the greater good to stop the far right getting into power.
The Tories and Labour are both fairly centrist parties anyway so it makes more sense than the Tories and Reform getting into bed together.

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JeremyVineyard · 07/06/2025 17:56

Thanks for that cheery update!

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LJShaw · 07/06/2025 15:47

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TizerorFizz · 12/05/2025 19:21

@OneAmberFinch FPTP makes it far more difficult for parties with a spread of support to get in. They only succeed where support is very strong in an individual constituency. That’s why UKIP hardly got any seats. When votes are split between the Tories and Reform (say) this can leave Labour with a win. Ditto if it was Labour and Reform splitting the vote and letting the Tories in. To be certain, a party needs a vote stronger in number than all the opposition. Third parties have found that notoriously hard to do.

OneAmberFinch · 12/05/2025 14:21

If you don't like fringe parties having a role in electoral politics, you should be massively in favour of FPTP.

Your problem is that Reform is popular, not that FPTP is not effective enough at kicking minority parties out!

PlutoCat · 08/05/2025 18:33

xanthomelana · 08/05/2025 18:26

Latest poll has Labour in third place in Wales. It will be interesting to see how Westminster responds to the Welsh Senedd elections because Labour haven’t lost Wales since 1922 but I can see that changing.

Yes, Plaid Cymru now in the lead. I think a Plaid Cymru/Labour pact might be on the cards.

xanthomelana · 08/05/2025 18:26

PlutoCat · 05/05/2025 14:58

Polling gives Labour a narrow lead over Reform. There is not much in it. Very worrying.

Latest poll has Labour in third place in Wales. It will be interesting to see how Westminster responds to the Welsh Senedd elections because Labour haven’t lost Wales since 1922 but I can see that changing.

boys3 · 08/05/2025 18:25

moto748e · 08/05/2025 17:42

Ii wouldn't be surprised if there were not a few stories about corrupt/useless/inefficent local govt by Reform well before the next GE, which may take the shine off them once people see how they perform when they actually have to run something.

Absolutely- at least 3 have gone already with less tan a week since the election.

Cattenberg · 08/05/2025 17:57

There has never been a UK referendum on PR! This is an extremely common misconception. The Liberal Democrats wanted a referendum on PR as part of the 2010 Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition agreement. The Tories pushed back and persuaded them to accept the compromise of a referendum on the Alternative Vote (AV). AV wasn't a PR system, so the Lib-Dems should never have agreed to this idea. They were utterly outmanoeuvred by the Tories.

Alternative Vote – Electoral Reform Society – ERS

Alternative Vote

What is the Alternative Vote?The Alternative Vote is not a form of proportional representation.In certain conditions, such as the 2015 General Election, it would have produced

https://electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/alternative-vote/

EasternStandard · 08/05/2025 17:47

EssexMan55 · 08/05/2025 15:15

Its one of Reforms main policies to change to PR, so not sure how they can argue against it!

It benefits a smaller party, Lib Dems would say the same. Whether they’ll switch at any point if they start benefiting from FPTP.

moto748e · 08/05/2025 17:42

Ii wouldn't be surprised if there were not a few stories about corrupt/useless/inefficent local govt by Reform well before the next GE, which may take the shine off them once people see how they perform when they actually have to run something.

boys3 · 08/05/2025 17:37

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 12:52

@Tomatotater Only in some forms of PR vote systems. There’s quite a few to choose from. Our issue is wanting constituency MPs and not wanting huge constituencies. So we have traditionally liked FPTP as it delivers this. We don’t get seats allied to votes because we like a stable government and not horse trading a coalition entails. We know, generally, how we stand after voting.

My LA now has 4 Reform seats out of 97. The big swing is to Lib Dems and independents. So Reform isn’t making huge inroads in this SE home counties LA. I was really surprised it wasn’t a bigger number.

As another pp said it is about how distributed the vote is. Unfortunately the Bucks CC website doesn’t seem to have party vote percentages (apols if I’ve missed it).

Other Home Counties though;

Herts - LDs and Cons both got 26% of the vote with 31 and 22 seats respectively. Reform only slightly behind on 24% of vote but only 14 seats.

Kent: Cons 22% of vote for 5 seats. Lib Dem’s only 12% of vote, but much more targeted winning 12 seats. Reform 37% of vote for 57 seats. just for context in the 2021 elections Cons won only slightly more seats (61) but got 49% of the vote.

Reforms council wins are a bit similar to Labour at the GE - the foundations are less secure than the number of seats won might suggest.

plus I think as you have probably previously observed the next GE is very unlikely to be held until 2029 - four years away still.

EssexMan55 · 08/05/2025 15:15

JoyousEagle · 05/05/2025 13:49

I think Badenoch will be ousted and Jenrick will move closer to Reform.

I think neither party will want to implement a system they’ve argued against for ages because it will be blatantly obvious they are doing it because they think it will now benefit them, and before they thought it wouldn’t. Farage will make a massive deal of this, and shout about how desperately the established parties are trying to cling to their hold on the electoral system and how now more than ever people need to vote for the non-establishment non-elite (ha!) Farage. And Reform’s vote will go up, framed as “vote against this establishment stitch up that is trying to take away your voting power because they think they know better”.

Its one of Reforms main policies to change to PR, so not sure how they can argue against it!

Tomatotater · 08/05/2025 08:30

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 17:15

@Tomatotater Youth always thinks that! So did I when I did British Government and Politics A level back in the 80s!!! However it was never going to happen for the reasons I stated and any evaluation of voting systems has to take on board our long held values of constituency link and ease of understanding and dislike of horse trading. Maybe your DS needs a bit more input into why it’s not changed.

Yes we have discussed it at length! It's much more fun than trying to navigate GCSE Maths with DS2!

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 20:14

@Whippetlovely We won’t improve anything by electing a rabble of cobbled together protest MPs either. They have no experience and no policies that have been worked up and costed. In short they have no idea. People are persuaded by short sound bites and easy to repeat slogans. It’s Brexit and Trump rolled into one. It’s shocking how people are manipulated and have very little grasp of politics, economics or governance.

Whippetlovely · 07/05/2025 17:44

BurntBroccoli · 05/05/2025 16:08

But they are winning via media manipulation and the vast sums being poured into it by oligarchs who want even more power, control and money.

They are winning because we've had 14 years of conservatives and now Labour who are a shit show, making pensioners poorer and proceeding with silly net zero nonsense.

moto748e · 07/05/2025 17:34

We've had plenty of time to see how various systems of PR work in other countries. But every version has its down-side. "Every vote of equal value" is a very laudable aim; it's hard to defend a system where 'most' people's votes have next to no effect, and a handful of voters in swing constituencies can decide GEs. But almost always they lead to coalitions, which often give small parties acting as 'king-makers' power out of proportion to the votes they received.

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 17:15

@Tomatotater Youth always thinks that! So did I when I did British Government and Politics A level back in the 80s!!! However it was never going to happen for the reasons I stated and any evaluation of voting systems has to take on board our long held values of constituency link and ease of understanding and dislike of horse trading. Maybe your DS needs a bit more input into why it’s not changed.

Icanthinkformyselfthanks · 07/05/2025 15:23

BIossomtoes · 05/05/2025 17:40

They’re not getting the backing of the likes of Musk.

@Blossomtoes neither are Reform. 🙄

Tomatotater · 07/05/2025 15:07

DS1 is doing Politics A Level and wrote an essay about voting systems. He was outraged about FPTP and saying 'Why don't we change this?' I told him I had written an almost identical essay 35 years ago when I did my A Level politics, and nothing had changed in all that time except the politicians were intellectual giants (even the awful ones) compared to what we have now!

Eskarina1 · 07/05/2025 15:06

TizerorFizz · 05/05/2025 13:57

We voted on PR under lib/con coalition. Seems people didn’t understand it! Of course we should have it but it normally benefits smaller parties. Depends on system chosen though. STV is probably better. FPTP does often shut out smaller parties - eg UKIP who got 4 million votes and 2 seats I think. However if enough lab and con voters defect, who knows? Yet more idiots in control?

I understood it but the timing of the vote coincided with the party I'd always voted for getting some power (as would happen under PR more often) and me feeling utterly frustrated with the result. With hindsight I'd vote differently.

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 14:51

I do think the Commons is too big. I also would favour STV. I’m also not sure how we have moved to what a mp does in the constituency as being so important. It’s like a big PR exercise. Law making is meant to be the primary function which is a skill lacking in many MPs.

I agree about unions and traditional Labour. Some voters haven’t changed much - even if they are dc of an earlier generation. I agree there’s a gap between PLP and voters in many respects but that’s not new either.

What it does mean is that people can now show, and vote for, their true colours. They will be the losers though.

Tomatotater · 07/05/2025 14:42

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 14:24

It’s funny how Labour voters are very quick to embrace reform. I have known Labour voters who see themselves as working class but are pretty right wing. Reform suits them as “immigrants are taking our jobs”. If they lose the nhs, so be it. Serves them right.

The Trades Union Movement and to some extent the Labour Movement of the 50's and 60's (when many Reform voters were children ) was pretty racist and traditionalist. They opposed the Equal Pay Act and anti discrimination legislation. Even the Birmingham Bin strike has its roots in refusing to accept equal pay rules and negotiate accordingly ( resulting in the council being bankrupted by equal pay claims). Traditional Labour members and voters are not really the same as the Parliamentary party, or any of the Middle Class new Labour voters. Many are socially conservative and economically protectionist ( so Reform)

Fluffyholeysocks · 07/05/2025 14:31

No, rather than change the rules they should change their leadership, their policies and start to take the electorates concerns into account. Start listening and sharpen up their act. If they appeal to the voters - there's no need to worry about Reform.

Tomatotater · 07/05/2025 14:26

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 12:52

@Tomatotater Only in some forms of PR vote systems. There’s quite a few to choose from. Our issue is wanting constituency MPs and not wanting huge constituencies. So we have traditionally liked FPTP as it delivers this. We don’t get seats allied to votes because we like a stable government and not horse trading a coalition entails. We know, generally, how we stand after voting.

My LA now has 4 Reform seats out of 97. The big swing is to Lib Dems and independents. So Reform isn’t making huge inroads in this SE home counties LA. I was really surprised it wasn’t a bigger number.

I think we agree! I don't really like the Scottish system if it gives people from a random party list dreamed up by Reform a load of MP's that can just be parachuted into the Commons because they have sucked up to Farage or paid him a fuckton of money. We could arguably use it to populate the House of Lords, up to about 100, with 50 more cross bench members chosen for expertise. We don't need 800 people in the Lords or 650 or whatever it is now for the Commons. My preference would be single transferrable vote. I'd also have compulsory voting.

TizerorFizz · 07/05/2025 14:24

It’s funny how Labour voters are very quick to embrace reform. I have known Labour voters who see themselves as working class but are pretty right wing. Reform suits them as “immigrants are taking our jobs”. If they lose the nhs, so be it. Serves them right.