And then there were three... Tory Party leadership contenders

Ed Davy won’t get the centre votes if the Tories don’t occupy that ground.

He already has. Have you seen the number of seats he took in Tory heartland?

Ed Davy won’t get the centre votes if the Tories don’t occupy that ground. They would need to change some socialist policies and teeek some others. Just getting votes in protest doesn’t work as Labour try and Hoover these too. As Clacton has shown, a low 58% turn out lets in idiots. The non voting public is also an issue. I didn’t vote in the summer. Our Con mp is awful, Unfortunately we had no chance of anyone better and I refuse to vote for such poor people. That goes for many candidates too. Poor quality people. That’s yet another issue.

I think you’re right, Ed Davey must be very happy tonight as he’ll be the main beneficiary of “a plague on both your houses” voters.

The problem is that a poor Conservative Party lurching right is not attractive to the centre. Labour cannot fully occupy that ground either unless the left is silenced. They won’t be. I don’t feel the lib dems are a centre party. They are definitely more socialist than a centre party should be to take Conservative votes on a permanent basis.

There are big dangers in not having a strong opposition. I think Kemi Badenoch says she will look at why people didn’t vote conservative but this might well conclude in them looking like Reform. Jenrick has already lurched right and wants out of ECHR. I think they do need to look at how to attract younger people but being the “nasty party” yet again isn’t it. It’s all pretty dispiriting.

Oh, I agree that the libdems are left of centre these days - I don't think I suggested otherwise? But if the Tories go even further towards the far right, they will make themselves untouchable for any moderate centre/centre right types, so those voters will need somewhere else to go.

And historically, pissed off centre right voters seem to prefer Libdem over Labour, even though some aspects of Labour policy are actually to the right of the Libdems these days anyway. I guess it has to do with old associations with Libdem as a centrist party and/or a strong dislike for Labour etc. Who knows!!

My expectation is that the Libdems will benefit from all this.

Um, there is a respectable point of view that says the LibDems aren’t centrist at all! If the centre embodies the most widely held views I don’t believe that could be said of the Libs nationally.

There are some very odd obsessions among the Libs. And the Greens.

I reckon that both the Tories and Reform will both lurch even further towards the extreme right in order to try and out-do each other, or they will just merge. There won't be anything to lose from shifting to the far right as far as the Tories are concerned because they'll realise that they've already burnt their bridges with traditional "moderate" Tories and centrist voters anyway.

So the Libdems will probably hoover up the central ground, or perhaps the Tory party will break up altogether and we'll end up with some kind of new centrist party that will provide a home for those Tories who won't want to buy into the far right rhetoric.

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out!

I find that very difficult to imagine. Not because the Tories couldn’t fall further - they could - but because nobody’s interested in the LibDems as a positive home for their vote. They did well with through tactical voting last time round.

Maybe. It probably depends on growth. Without it even basic pledges such as defence spending can’t be met.

And above inflation demands on public sector pay will be harder

I mean off here you can see many people really dislike him. I doubt he’ll be replaced though.

Moderate anyone isn’t going to be attracted. The Tory membership (elderly and right wing) is currently not in sync with why they lost. The age at which people decide to vote Conservative is going up and up.

Reform will do pretty well out of it. Badenoch won’t be extreme enough for them; the Tories risk being “Diet Reform”.

That’s my reading too. I can see them being the official opposition after another election.

This seems logical, but I'd suggest his popularity is about as poor right now as it's possible to get, and there is still the thick end of five years to go before he has to call an election.

I think it's become apparent Labour had a plan for winning the election but no real plan for what to do in government, but I wouldn't bank on Starmer's own approval continuing to plunge from here on in. Chances are this is actually the low-point of his first term, because even Labour aren't stupid enough to think they can just wing it for five years and then win an election.

I think this is probably true, but moderate Labour voters aren't going to flock to a very right wing Tory party. I think it's likely that the Lib Dems will do very well out of it. Which I would be fine with.

As Starmer’s popularity goes down there will be more people demanding he’s held to account

The main thing to note is that Badenoch is not very popular with the general public that she would need to covet to win. So she is less popular than Boris Johnson, Sunak or even Cleverly. It really depends whether she is a leader who picks up votes. My instinct on that is no, or at least, she will not pick up those wet Tory voters who have gone Lib Dem.

Jenrick doesn’t even register with the general public so who knows? But it’s a bad choice

What an almighty fuck up on the part of the Tory party. Yet again.

It seems that they have learnt nothing from the mistakes of the previous years. Have they already forgotten?

Great news for Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens though. The Tories can carry on fighting with Reform for the far right section of the electorate. Meanwhile, they will make themselves unelectable for the predominantly centrist majority of voters, so it will be left to the left leaning parties to fight over their votes.

The country does need a credible and functional opposition. As the Tory party seems hell bent on self destruction, we'd better hope that Ed Davey and the Libdems are ready to step up!

The problem is, all the moderate Tories ran a mile at the 2019 election because they saw the writing on the wall. The "centrists" are thin on the ground now as well, and the barking mad right wing is now pretty much in control of the party.

I agree with you that they aren't going to be in government any time soon, but I think they have a bit to go before they evolve to the point where there is any prospect of a centrist leader being viable. Perhaps one or two more right-wing nutters beyond this one, a merger with Reform, a split, and so on, before they regain their senses and realise that the likes of Badenoch and Jenrick are electoral millstones irrespective of what their geriatric membership thinks.

Yes agree on both

You’ve articulated it well

You think so? More than Starmer?

I agree he’s less combative than Badenoch but he’s got a very thin skin - his petulance has shown through very early - and he’s already very widely disliked. He’s also the subject of mockery, which is the really difficult thing to come back from, especially as his brand was the projection of piety.

If Starmer’s rating keeps going down, more people will want someone who can get him to actually answer stuff.

Not on here as still support but generally

The Conservative Party is entering its Jeremy Corbyn era. A few years languishing on its extreme fringe they they'll probably come back with someone more centrist.

Surely Jenrick is too vulnerable due to his dodgy dealings in the past?

You'd think so, but large scale theft and corruption appears to be viewed as a virtue these days by the Tory party, and it hasn't prevented him getting this far.

I don't believe Starmer would really have any appetite for getting involved in a squabble about personal business dealings/money/grifting himself either. It's normally the Labour MP's who come out of that sort of thing looking worse than their Tory counterparts.

This. And she can start a fight in an empty room. The main thing though is that she’s inherently unlikeable.

Surely Jenrick is too vulnerable due to his dodgy dealings in the past?

Baiting Badenoch will become a parliamentary pastime, because, as you say, she's too thin skinned and far too ready to rise to the bait.

Labour are in a different place after only a few months

I wouldn’t bank on anything for five years

Especially given what will change over that time