Reform party seems to be ahead in my area.

If Reform beat the Tories in one seat and the Lib Dems beat them in forty seats wouldn’t it make more sense to move away from far right populism?

@mids2019 The issue is racists cannot be satisfied as clamping down on brown people hurts not caused by brown people will never salve those hurts.
Dissatisfaction with brexit and there being brown people are because of big problems with the logic of brexit and national deficit and inequality. Reform voters will just want brexit done properly and brown people punished enough that the super wealthy decide that they have enough and demand to give more back.

I think this could be a big problem after the election. If the conservatives suffer a historic defeat partly due to reform peeling off its voters it really does need a strategy to win them back. Does the Tory party then have to track to the right and maybe encompass ideas (and perhaps characters) people find impalatable.

I think we may see the same political pressures in France where it looks like National Rally are perhaps going to gain control and we can't ignore the far right as a political force. I think maybe given the snap nature of the election the background of a lot of Reform candidates has obviously not had the level of scrutiny deserved.

Reform are on the rise due to the two main parties not being very attractive to vote for. Always how the hard right rises.

Reform have a vociferous social media presence, that's for sure.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for neither.

I plan to stay up and keep an eye on them too 😁

You can look up the aggregated MRP predictions for your constituency here:

inglesp.github.io/apogee/

Great link @verdantverdure !

Across the 12 different polling orgs shown the Tories have just 14 seats where all 12 currently predict the Tories will win, and just 15 more where in 11/12 predict them winning. In contrast to 354 seats for Labour where all 12 agree, and another 41 where its 11/12 ' and 21 go12/12 for Lib Dems, with a further 15 with 11/12. And none where all 12 predict a Reform (or Greens) win.

8/12 predict Reform to win Clacton, but no other seat has even half the polling orgs predicting a victory for them.

9/12 have the Greens for Brighton Pavillion; Bristol Central is a 6-6 split between Green and Labour.

and hope we wake up in a better situation on Friday.

I remain very confident that we will. Although I confess I do plan to stay up and watch the results. Just to make sure.😀

I agree, there's no chance of them winning all those seats. But the point is that some pollsters do project then ahead in some places.

Clacton might actually elect Farage - they elected Carswell who was UKIP in 2015. But on the other hand Carswell was an incumbent and while he was UKIP he was (I'm told) sincere, not at all Trumpesque, and well liked in the constituency. So Clacton might reject Farage, just like in the other places he's tried. I really hope so.

Perhaps they're more likely to win Ashfield, where they have the incumbent.

In Barnsley South @TomPinch 11 of the polls predict Labour and 1 Reform.

Ditto for Isle of Wight West. (Where Tice lives, did they ask him?!)

In Newark it's 10 polls predicting Labour. 1 Conservative and 1 Reform.

And so on.

In 632 seats they have no chance at all

I'll give you Clacton. They must have picked it for a reason.

From that graphic, here are the places that Reform are projected by one or more pollsters to win:

Ashfield
Barnsley South
Basildon and Billericay
Clacton (most pollsters)
Boston & Skegness
Exmouth and Exeter East
Isle of Wight West
Louth and Horncastle
Mid-Buckinghamshire
Newark
North-west Leicestershire
Skipton & Ripon
South Basildon and East Thurrock

So, a few places.

I think they'll get Clacton and maybe Ashfield but not the others, and that assumes the current polls reflect that their vote on polling day.

The big problem for pollsters in the past was people not wanting to admit they intended to vote Tory. They adjust for that, however, it can still be an issue. I wonder whether it'll be the opposite for Reform, ie, people saying noisily that they will but then forgetting to cast their vote 😆 I hope so.

I’ve no idea how much credence to give the polls. Where they agree they might just all be labouring under the same wrong assumptions.

All we can do is cast our one vote in our one constituency and hope we wake up in a better situation on Friday.

Jakers this is interesting. We're predicted labour and the adjoining constituency.

Reform are not ahead anywhere that I've seen. They've just got a lot of social media astroturfers. .

You can look up the aggregated MRP predictions for your constituency here:

inglesp.github.io/apogee/

To help vote out a Tory?

I see a lot of what they used to call "astroturfing" fake social media posts about Reform but I don't think there's anywhere gullible enough to actually elect them.

You can see who the MRP polls predict to win in your constituency here:

inglesp.github.io/apogee/

Reform are predicted to win two seats only. Both have peculiarities. First, Clacton, where Farage is standing and which previously was held by Carswell who prior to that election defected from the Tories to Reform's previous incarnation UKIP. The other is Ashfield, the current incumbent defected from the Tories to Reform.

The better question is what happens next.

Reform could become the main challenger in a host of deindustrialised seats that Labour will win this time, ie, pick up the votes of people who are socially conservative but economically left-wing. Lots of those seats would have been Tory targets in previous elections, ie, ones they would need to win to govern.

If a Tory right-winger replaces Sunak they could court that vote (and Reform could even infiltrate the Tories) meaning making that party more socially conservative and economically centrist. But I agree with a pp who said if the Tories did that they'd shed votes.

The alternative is that the Tories move to the centre socially and economically, to try and win back Lab and LD votes. They would win this way but would leave a vacuum on the social and economic right for Reform to fill. That could be a trap for Reform.

No one is saying he deserves a medal for that. I responded to a poster justifying reasons to vote for reform, saying Starmer hates women and girls.

Sunak and Farage are not better. I also wonder what their partners think of their corrupt and self serving ways. Their partners actually benefited from that.

But she didn't say he is a good role model. Your post is arrogant because it is all about your own feelings about Farage but you have dismissed what the poster said which was - why some voters get lured by politicians like Farage, and that it's important to listen to their concerns as well.

I wonder what Mrs Starmer who is Jewish and who is bringing up their children in the faith thought when her husband stood by the anti-semite Jeremy Corbyn and said he would make a great prime minister and watch as Jewish MPs such as Luciana Berger were abused and hounded out of the party.

I also wonder whether Victoria Starmer is ok with Keir being unable to define what is a woman and has produced a manifesto which erodes women’s rights and puts their safety at risk

Hes been a big advocate for law change around violence towards women/domestic violence. He’s a better bet than Farage if it’s women’s rights you prioritise.

He actually was very involved with thinking about violence towards women.

So he looks after his family , medal time I think not.