Are there any 'Portillo moments' to look forward to?

154 replies

missmousemouth · 24/05/2024 10:22

Listening to 'The Rest is Politics', they predicted that Jacob Rees-Mogg was a possible Portillo moment in July. God I'd love that. Those of you who crunch numbers, are there any others?

OP posts:

tribpot · 24/05/2024 10:48

Yes, looks like it: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=PO6+1UN

New Seat Details - Portsmouth North

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=PO6+1UN

FiveFoxes · 24/05/2024 10:46

Give is being mentioned as one, but I think that would be a surprise. Surrey Heath seems very Conservative - Gove had twice as many seats as Lib Dems last time.

What about Jeremy Hunt t?

Abhannmor · 24/05/2024 10:35

I think Mordaunt might be vulnerable down in Hampshire?

tribpot · 24/05/2024 10:35

Gove's seat is particularly vulnerable - less than 1% in it with the Lib Dems according to current polling. The Best for Britain MRP polling from a few months ago (before the local elections) showed there were no truly safe seats for the Tories at that point, so there may be quite a few Portillo moments.

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