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Politics

Are there any 'Portillo moments' to look forward to?

154 replies

missmousemouth · 24/05/2024 10:22

Listening to 'The Rest is Politics', they predicted that Jacob Rees-Mogg was a possible Portillo moment in July. God I'd love that. Those of you who crunch numbers, are there any others?

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TomPinch · 07/07/2024 03:14

A big difference between 1997 and now is that there's much more data modelling online and reporting on who is in with the best chance. Back then, all voters had to go on was who had finished first or second last time, and even then it didn't work - many Tories hung on because Labour and LD advanced equally. Portillo lost because lots of LDs tactically voted Labour to get rid of him. That was unusual, even in that election, but there's been lots lots lots of that this time.

This time round, there are various websites that suggest who the winner might be. That was very helpful to Labour, LD and the Greens who appear to have had a quiet truce, but unhelpful to the Tories and Reform who had no truce..

Peregrina · 07/07/2024 00:24

Rachelsthorns - yes especially when it apparently wasn't one of their target seats. in 2019 my own seat decided to work with the Greens and they stood their candidate down - and it made a difference. This time they put up a Green plus a half dozen others also stood, but the MP was already established, which I am sure helped her.

Rachelsthorns · 06/07/2024 22:05

Peregrina · 06/07/2024 14:01

You have the idiot Green Party to thank for Jeremy Hunt hanging on.

You could just as easily blame the 2748 who voted Labour - almost certain in the knowledge that Labour would form the next Government, so that their vote wasn't needed.

BTW as one who has been active in politics I had heard it strongly rumoured that Truss was likely going to lose her seat, so it wasn't quite the Portillo moment for me that it should have been.

Most pleasing for me was seeing Rees-Mogg getting the old heave ho.

I’m not blaming people for voting for their preferred candidate. I’m blaming the central party for not bothering to communicate with the local party, who had already decided not to field a candidate.

Peregrina · 06/07/2024 15:23

Sabrina

Much the same happened in the successor seat to Henley - now called Henley and Thame and until 2005 Boris Johnson's old seat. A 14,000 majority turned into a 6000 majority for the LibDems with more votes than the Tories and Reform put together. The Henley seat last had a non Tory in 1906.

SabrinaThwaite · 06/07/2024 14:47

I was v v pleased to see Gillian Keegan given the boot.

In 2019 Keegan got 35,000 votes and a 21,000 majority.

In 2024 Keegan turned this into a thumping loss - the Lib Dem candidate took almost half the vote, got more votes than Keegan and the equally unpleasant Reform candidate put together, and became the first non Tory MP for 100 years.

SabrinaThwaite · 06/07/2024 14:40

CarlaH · 05/07/2024 16:10

I've just gone back and had a look at the original Portillo moment. What a change from the politicians of today. A lovely speech from Stephen Twigg upon his victory with no gloating or showboating and thanking the other candidates for an honest campaign. Then a graceful speech from Portillo wishing Stephen Twigg and the new government success.

It certainly seemed a far more civilised way to behave.

I would say that I haven't watched any of the stuff this time around. Maybe they too have been largely gracious and polite but I am gathering that the ghastly Truss was not.

Robert Buckland’s speech was a good one - thanking his constituents, team and family for their support, wishing the incoming MP Heidi Alexander well … and laying into the shower of shites that took over the Conservatives for their mendacity.

Reugny · 06/07/2024 14:12

Peregrina · 06/07/2024 10:32

I thought Sunak gracious in defeat. Contrast that with Truss's behaviour at her Count: as the MP defending her seat she turned up to the Count late and sidled onto the line of candidates at the end. She didn't bother to make a speech, shook one or two hands and scuttled off. She showed herself up badly IMO.

Apparently not all returning officers allow losing candidates to make a speech.

It varies from area to area.

Reugny · 06/07/2024 14:11

There were no real Portillo moments were there? Just about all those who did lose were expected to lose.

Truss was my Portillo moment due to her complete lack of decorum.

She took an age to come to the count and her make up had been clearly plastered on.

Rees-Smug and the rest were well-mannered in comparison. They all looked unhappy to lose but weren't in shock.

Peregrina · 06/07/2024 14:01

You have the idiot Green Party to thank for Jeremy Hunt hanging on.

You could just as easily blame the 2748 who voted Labour - almost certain in the knowledge that Labour would form the next Government, so that their vote wasn't needed.

BTW as one who has been active in politics I had heard it strongly rumoured that Truss was likely going to lose her seat, so it wasn't quite the Portillo moment for me that it should have been.

Most pleasing for me was seeing Rees-Mogg getting the old heave ho.

DisforDarkChocolate · 06/07/2024 13:53

Watching Liz Truss I am now totally convinced she's a badly programmed robot.

Peregrina · 06/07/2024 10:32

I thought Sunak gracious in defeat. Contrast that with Truss's behaviour at her Count: as the MP defending her seat she turned up to the Count late and sidled onto the line of candidates at the end. She didn't bother to make a speech, shook one or two hands and scuttled off. She showed herself up badly IMO.

Rachelsthorns · 05/07/2024 23:24

Peregrina · 05/07/2024 07:36

There were no real Portillo moments were there? Just about all those who did lose were expected to lose. The surprises were Jeremy Hunt and Ian Duncan Smith managing to hang on.

But it's as the Tories said - vote Reform and get Labour. Very true in many seats.

You have the idiot Green Party to thank for Jeremy Hunt hanging on.

The local Greens decided not to field a candidate to give the very strong LibDem candidate a chance.

So the Green Central party parachuted some unknown in without discussion. That candidate took over 1000 votes - enough for Jeremy Hunt to scrape through.

Paul2023 · 05/07/2024 22:30

Sunak was gracious , but all out going PMs should to be polite and diplomatic. There’s nothing else they can do.

Apart from Boris Johnson’s !

Cuwins · 05/07/2024 17:53

tribpot · 05/07/2024 16:23

I would say that I haven't watched any of the stuff this time around. Maybe they too have been largely gracious and polite

They have @CarlaH . Most of the speeches have been warm and gracious. Proper grown-up stuff.

Yes to be fair I thought Sunak was very gracious in defeat

CarlaH · 05/07/2024 16:35

tribpot · 05/07/2024 16:23

I would say that I haven't watched any of the stuff this time around. Maybe they too have been largely gracious and polite

They have @CarlaH . Most of the speeches have been warm and gracious. Proper grown-up stuff.

That's good to hear.

tribpot · 05/07/2024 16:23

I would say that I haven't watched any of the stuff this time around. Maybe they too have been largely gracious and polite

They have @CarlaH . Most of the speeches have been warm and gracious. Proper grown-up stuff.

CarlaH · 05/07/2024 16:10

I've just gone back and had a look at the original Portillo moment. What a change from the politicians of today. A lovely speech from Stephen Twigg upon his victory with no gloating or showboating and thanking the other candidates for an honest campaign. Then a graceful speech from Portillo wishing Stephen Twigg and the new government success.

It certainly seemed a far more civilised way to behave.

I would say that I haven't watched any of the stuff this time around. Maybe they too have been largely gracious and polite but I am gathering that the ghastly Truss was not.

Westfacing · 05/07/2024 16:06

Peregrina · 05/07/2024 07:36

There were no real Portillo moments were there? Just about all those who did lose were expected to lose. The surprises were Jeremy Hunt and Ian Duncan Smith managing to hang on.

But it's as the Tories said - vote Reform and get Labour. Very true in many seats.

If Truss wasn't a Portillo moment I don't know what is!

Bromptotoo · 05/07/2024 16:05

Paul2023 · 05/07/2024 15:54

Jonathon Asworth , I was sure he was going to get a cabinet job. Yet he lost his seat. That was surprising!

Also Tunbridge Wells went Lib Dem which is unheard of. Always been a very safe Tory seat.

Edited

I was surprised by that too but apparently he's one of four displaced by independents over the Gaza issue.

Democracy in action.

Hopefully they won't try an parachute him into another seat; remember Patrick Gordon-Walker.

AutumnCrow · 05/07/2024 16:03

Maria Miller seemed pretty fucked off and surprised at her count when the result became apparent.

Skyellaskerry · 05/07/2024 16:00

BitOutOfPractice · 05/07/2024 10:48

Truss seems completely unrepentant!

Delusional and quite shameless in defeat. I agree this was the portillo moment, all the damage she did, hope we’ve seen the last of her in British politics.

Paul2023 · 05/07/2024 15:54

Jonathon Asworth , I was sure he was going to get a cabinet job. Yet he lost his seat. That was surprising!

Also Tunbridge Wells went Lib Dem which is unheard of. Always been a very safe Tory seat.

Paul2023 · 05/07/2024 15:51

Truss was close! There was only about 600
votes between her and the Labour candidate.

BitOutOfPractice · 05/07/2024 10:48

Truss seems completely unrepentant!

TomPinch · 05/07/2024 10:26

Truss was a genuine Portillo moment. We knew the Tories would lose but, like Portillo, she had a particularly big majority and the modelling predicted that she'd survive.

Though I recall that Portillo was graceful in defeat, unlike Truss.