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Original poster

I’m calling the date of the next General Election

233 replies

Lettucelet · 21/03/2024 20:43

Thursday 24 October 2024.

My logic is thus:

  1. Tory MPs with kids in private school will want the election after the next academic year starts so that they will get an extra year VAT free while Labour gets its house in order. This is why Jeremy Hunt said the election wouldn’t happen until the Autumn.

  2. Tory MPs will want to take full advantage of the summer holidays/recess so they won’t want to campaign in July/August when they could be on a yacht instead.

  3. Term will start Week Commencing Monday 9 October at the latest. They will want to have a week to sort things out.

  4. So, 6 weeks after the Thursday of the week after 9 September is Thursday 24 October which fits in nicely with half term and they can go on holiday again.

Place your bets.

OP posts:
WarningOfGails · 04/05/2024 08:10

Freysimo · 04/05/2024 07:22

Why? That's my birthday!

Show quote history

Me too!

Noras · 04/05/2024 07:54

It will be end July when the students and young families are on holiday etc. He is relying on the older committed voters who don’t tend to go off so much for travels then.

JessS1990 · 04/05/2024 07:51

Zonder · 04/05/2024 07:42

I have generally thought the election would be January to hold on as long as possible but I've just been reading that MPs are not putting in letters to get rid of Sunak. That makes me think that perhaps he's told them he's about to announce an election.

On one hand this would make sense because the Tories have done so badly, but on the other hand that would need Sunak to admit to having lost really badly, and I'm not sure he is capable of that.

What would have made sense would have been to hold the GE at the same time as the local elections.
In that scenario I think that the Tories would have held onto more council seats and fewer people would be in the habit of voting to GTTO. If it was not before it is now abundantly clear that there will only be one winner at the GE, people like to vote for the winner. Leaving the election later only makes it worse for the Tories.

Sunak's reverse midas touch in action again!

Zonder · 04/05/2024 07:42

I have generally thought the election would be January to hold on as long as possible but I've just been reading that MPs are not putting in letters to get rid of Sunak. That makes me think that perhaps he's told them he's about to announce an election.

On one hand this would make sense because the Tories have done so badly, but on the other hand that would need Sunak to admit to having lost really badly, and I'm not sure he is capable of that.

Freysimo · 04/05/2024 07:22

Twiglets1 · 04/05/2024 06:39

My money is on 5th December

Why? That's my birthday!

JoJothegerbil · 04/05/2024 07:05

I'm going for October too. They want to get at least one flight off to Rwanda which they hope will give them a bounce in the polls. Thats not going to happen until the summer. Then it's parliamentary recess until early September followed by conferences.

They'll want to avoid winter and their core not coming out to vote, so mid-October would be the right time, before the clocks go back and it gets too cold. An election on 17th October would mean Sunak would have to call it by 12th September.

crummyusername · 04/05/2024 06:45

Tories will want to maximize the oldie vote (so will want to avoid bad weather / dark evenings which would lower turnout) and minimize the student vote as pp said. Plus too near US elections won’t look good internationally. So I’m going 17 Oct. Wish they’d hurry up and decide so I can plan my election night kick-out-the-Tories party.

Twiglets1 · 04/05/2024 06:39

My money is on 5th December

Freakinfraser · 04/05/2024 06:37

I also think it will be later in the year. The bloody nose the electorate has given them at the locals, will mean a vote of no confidence and a new leader. It’s a poison chalice though, difficult to pull it back. But I think the locals will be a catalyst for them to act.

boys3 · 03/05/2024 23:03

12th December

shiftingsandsoftime · 03/05/2024 16:41

Tories are on a 100-day policy blitz, getting as many 'populist' nasty party measures implemented asap, so probably not going to be calling election in July apparently, but dragging it out is prolonging everybody's misery. The TV coverage so clearly wanted to be reporting the general election today and not scattered council/mayoral elections.

PP who said about the students, yes, stopping students voting is a genuinely major factor in when Tories call elections.

JessS1990 · 03/05/2024 13:50

RishiSunak · 03/05/2024 13:44

Why, what's happened?😕

Show quote history

As the Donald might say.

You are a bigly loser, loser.

RishiSunak · 03/05/2024 13:44

Lettucelet · 03/05/2024 08:49

Has Rishi Sunak resigned yet?

Why, what's happened?😕

Welovecrumpets · 03/05/2024 13:40

JessS1990 · 21/03/2024 20:50

Since Sunak is fabled for his honesty, integrity and professionalism I am sure that he will chose the date that is best for the country and no other considerations will enter his mind.

Lol

tabulahrasa · 03/05/2024 13:37

JessS1990 · 03/05/2024 10:27

Do we know if he is alright?
As anyone seen or heard from him in the last few days?

I don't remember seeing the obligatory posing at the polling station photo.

Show quote history

He probably forgot his ID 😐

SwimmingSnake · 03/05/2024 13:33

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SwimmingSnake · 03/05/2024 13:30

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Original poster
Lettucelet · 03/05/2024 13:28

Except…. An invasion of Afghanistan did not get in the way of the incumbent foreign secretary even though the sea was closed, so why let a pesky election they’re going to lose get in the way of their holidays?

OP posts:
ichundich · 03/05/2024 13:16

Lettucelet · 21/03/2024 20:43

Thursday 24 October 2024.

My logic is thus:

  1. Tory MPs with kids in private school will want the election after the next academic year starts so that they will get an extra year VAT free while Labour gets its house in order. This is why Jeremy Hunt said the election wouldn’t happen until the Autumn.

  2. Tory MPs will want to take full advantage of the summer holidays/recess so they won’t want to campaign in July/August when they could be on a yacht instead.

  3. Term will start Week Commencing Monday 9 October at the latest. They will want to have a week to sort things out.

  4. So, 6 weeks after the Thursday of the week after 9 September is Thursday 24 October which fits in nicely with half term and they can go on holiday again.

Place your bets.

Some strange thinking OP. My bet is they will delay the GE to the last possible moment (i.e. January) in a desperate attempt to reclaim voters.

Thegoodbadandugly · 03/05/2024 13:13

Lettucelet · 03/05/2024 13:06

Any photo or video of him will be photoshopped and AI @JessS1990 I think you’re on to something.

Show quote history

Probably on holiday!

Original poster
Lettucelet · 03/05/2024 13:06

JessS1990 · 03/05/2024 10:27

Do we know if he is alright?
As anyone seen or heard from him in the last few days?

I don't remember seeing the obligatory posing at the polling station photo.

Show quote history

Any photo or video of him will be photoshopped and AI @JessS1990 I think you’re on to something.

OP posts:
JessS1990 · 03/05/2024 10:27

Lettucelet · 03/05/2024 08:49

Has Rishi Sunak resigned yet?

Do we know if he is alright?
As anyone seen or heard from him in the last few days?

I don't remember seeing the obligatory posing at the polling station photo.

cordeliachaseatemyhandbag · 03/05/2024 10:04

January.
Tory voters aren't as likely to be put off by bad weather and are more likely to be postal voters.

Also why give up a plum job before you need to?

Rishi doesn't care about Christmas, he is Hindu after all.

Then he can say he was PM from 2022-2025 which sounds so much longer than 14 months.

Zonder · 03/05/2024 09:26

Lettucelet · 03/05/2024 08:49

Has Rishi Sunak resigned yet?

I'd rather he just called a GE

Original poster
Lettucelet · 03/05/2024 08:49

Has Rishi Sunak resigned yet?

OP posts: