Do we have any hope of an early general election?

@PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior
Unfortunately the electorate don’t understand that economics of the country is a balance. Many governments would (and did) invest in public services if there is growth in private industry which largely funds such measures through greater employment opportunities and taxation. Until the banking collapse we had reasonable growth. We need to get back to that but Brexit and other world events are against that desirable outcome. It will be very difficult to do what we need and invest. However we could make savings such as scrapping HS2 but we need people to work in social care snd maintain the vital services. Some areas of investment will have to go on the back burner or taxpayers and younger people will be screwed for years. Never mind private pension holders and mortgage payers. We can borrow to invest, and have, but we are maxed out on that now. We have mismanagement to thank for that.

Our low growth has lasted since then (12 fucking years) because we did what every economics textbook says not to: we slashed investment.

Yup.

@donquixotedelamancha
The Conservatives fought the 2010 election on Labour spending too much. Whether you remember that or not, that’s what Cameron did and brought in austerity. I think you might have misunderstood what I said. I didn’t think it was a great over spend, but Cameron snd Osborne did. Whatever we think is immaterial. Elections are often fought on half truths. As are referenda.

The money did run out due to the banking crash.

Thing is. The disruption of the banking crash was effectively a short term cost to government and a hit to the economy but countries which responded effectively (e.g. the US) were recovering within a year.

Our low growth has lasted since then (12 fucking years) because we did what every economics textbook says not to: we slashed investment.

Absolutely but it will be a year to 18 months away. If you really mean will there be one now or in the next six months, no chance.

No hope at all

It drives me mad all this "but labour trash the economy". Debt is far higher now than under labour. The money did run out due to the banking crash. However before then when they were in power at least they spent the money on the NHS (slashing waiting lists) and education etc. Tories seem to like to splash the cash too but they give it all to their mates.

I would agree that the Tony Blair government was so much more stable than this one. However what was considered profligate spending became an issue.

Are you kidding? Taxes barely rose as a share of GDP under Blair. They went up far more under Cameron, Johnson and Thatcher.

When the Blair Gov borrowed it spent it on capital investment: hospitals, schools, roads, houses and IT. When it spent taxes it did so on education, training, intervention schemes and healthcare. These things grew the economy.

Austerity effectively raised taxes because slashing spending on these things slowed the economy. At the same time the Tories have 'misplaced' more taxpayer money than any government in history.

The idea that Tories are low tax is a myth.

I would agree that the Tony Blair government was so much more stable than this one. However what was considered profligate spending became an issue. Obviously with hindsight, austerity didn’t go well when the nation voted for that. We are now in a state of turbulence due to our own making and world events again. We do not have politicians that are good enough. The factions are warring and the schisms are irreparable.

We have a democracy by voting for MPs. It’s not presidential (which would be fixed term). So our reoresebrstune a should choose their leader.

Up until very recently, the BBC was known for making every excuse. Kussenberg is parodied widely on social media for her sycophantic slant on Boris.

I honestly don't recognise what you are saying. I lived through the last Labour government as a young person in one of the countries most deprived areas.
Didn't realise at the time how good we had it, tbh. Policies that were perhaps not ideal, hindsight is 20/20, but still by today's standards, they were pretty damn fantastic for someone who comes from where I do.

They have no public credibility, but it is very difficult to say who does. Media has been hostile to most in politics, and not without reason.

Blair had a huge impact on the direction, economics and culture of Britain. His time saw the start of intergenerational inequality. So yes, anyone who was alive then will remember his actions.

Why do you think the Tories will give up their majority?

I think we'll have one before Christmas. Bookmark this

I'm not in the uk and can't vote in uk elections anymore.
.....And maybe Maybe I don't understand politics but I think there us a huge flaw in the whole voting (and party) system that allowed Truss to become PM and do what she did - selected by about 100,000 people and trying to implement policies that were far away from those by which the party was voted in on . Is that democratic?
A general election is the only democratic next move and it shouldn't be possible for the failing ruling party to block it.
on every level the conservatives look completely incompetent - a disaster. It is beyond my comprehension that anyone continues to support them.

Any of us could manage to run the country, compared to this endless shower.

An early election can only happen if the PM calls it or Tory MPs vote for it.

At 36 points behind in the polls how likely do you think that is?

Perhaps not, but it was fun to blame him for it.

The only way is if at least 80 Tories vote against everything that is put through parliament & they can't get legislation through, very much like when Theresa May was PM.

No

There is no reason for the Tories to give up such a large majority earlier than they see as necessary

i can’t see the Tories turning things around to their advantage so they will hold out as long as they can

I don't care much for Starmer at all but the last 4 Tory leaders are a disaster. Cameron was a glorified PR man, May was robotic, Johnson a complete chancer and Truss worse than useless.

At least Starmer has some track record in his career.

The polls would have to close a lot which isn't going to happen with Truss.

The only way we'll get an early election is if the Tories get a new leader bounce.

Labour are probably going to be worse than the Conservatives seeing the lack of competence in their party and the problems they face.

I would agree with this. Starmer is already backtracking on the bullshit he spouted around the time of the party conference now reality has hit home and he has finally realised he will be expected to deliver.

I think it's unlikely, because it would require a lot of the people who stand to lose their jobs, ie Tory MPs, to support it. Turkeys voting for Christmas. Historically, governments who have reason to suspect they'll lose the next GE tend go for the full 5 years (Labour in 2010, Tories in 97 and 92 etc) and only those who think they'll win are happy to go earlier (Tories in 2017, Labour in 01 and 05). Some of these guesses have been wrong, but that was the rationale.

@Kellie45
The Conservatives have taxed pension pots a huge amount and that’s why well paid medics leave. Others aren’t keen on those taxes either. Nothing to do with Tony Blair. Also Cameron was elected on a austerity ticket. Couldn’t do it but borrowing then was nothing like borrowing now. Liz Truss wanting to cut taxes by borrowing even more on top of COVID and energy help broke confidence. They are having to row back. Not surprising really. Hunt will have his work cut out to work with the PM. She might have to ditch mist of her promises but Sunak said they were unworkable.

I think it's highly unlikely. The Tories still have a massive majority and turkeys wouldn't generally vote for Christmas. They know that they will be toast if they go to the electorate now, and even those in previously safe seats will feel that they are at risk right now.

I think the only calculation that might make them think it's worth it is if they realise that things are going to get so bad that the Tories will become unelectable for generations. They might think that letting Labour come in and share some of the blame for the economic mess that is about to hit us will actually be better for the tories in the longer term. However, I don't think many will be willing to sacrifice their own seats and careers for the sake of the longer term interest of the party.

I think it's far more likely that Liz Truss will plod on, without any real power, at the mercy of whatever her party decides they want her to do. Jeremy Hunt can pretty much call the shots now as she can't afford to sack him. He wanted the top job... now he just has it by proxy. It's likely that they will then try to replace Truss again before the next election, but I think they will stick it out for a while so that she can be the convenient scapegoat for the economic turmoil, and then they will try to bring in a fresh face who can pretend that it had nothing to do with them.