Well, as the purpose of this thread is to engage in non-partisan political chit chat, no day would be complete without a mention of Nicola Sturgeon.
This morning, she unveils new plans for IndyRef2. Again.
She will be cheered by the news that the latest YouGov poll shows support for independence at 51%. The sample size is small however - 1039 respondents - and the change is attributed to Remainers.
Just one slight problem...the same poll shows that the majority think that leaving the UK would damage Scotland’s economy (60% of trade is with rUK). This might explain why it also shows that 56% oppose having an IndyRef2 this year or next, with just 34% in favour.
An interesting analysis from Tom Harris on Nicola’s repeated demands for yet another “once in a lifetime referendum”:
“...campaigning for independence is a central part of her job and if Sturgeon didn’t regularly demand a referendum, she would be replaced as leader of the SNP. The justification for demanding a rerun plebiscite is less important than the imperative of demanding one.
But the timing is just as – perhaps even more – crucial. With Brexit will come a swathe of new powers for the Scottish Parliament in areas that are already devolved: fishing, agriculture and the environment, for example – powers that have, until now, been wielded by Brussels. SNP strategy has so far been to deny that Scotland will derive any benefit at all from our departure from the European Union; when the prospect of Westminster temporarily holding on to some repatriated powers until a UK-wide regulation regime could be devised, nationalists started using the term “power grab” in order to give the impression that Scotland was being betrayed by the evil Brexit-loving Tories.
But new powers are heading in Holyrood’s direction anyway – a lot of new powers and responsibilities. Scottish ministers also fear that Boris Johnson will keep his promise to fishing communities and negotiate an end to Britain’s participation in the hated Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) by the end of this year. This would indeed be a cause for panic: how could the SNP demand independence and joining the EU when it would mean taking the Scottish fishing industry back into the CFP? In any future independence referendum, how would SNP ministers explain their preference for fishing and agriculture to be run from Brussels rather than from Edinburgh?
All of this means that the longer a second referendum is delayed, the more uphill will be the task of persuading Scots that they’re better off with Europe than with the rest of the UK.”
So Boris might be right to apply a judicious touch of dither and delay.