Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?

@mummmy2017

I don't see that the date matter much, but here's Tusk saying it again recently even though the EU has nothing to do with a decision of the UK to ultimately remain. it does show we are welcome.

TUSK

The link I posted was from was not hearsay, but Junkier saying we are going and what he will do afterwards, you have to stop grasping at straws, this is happening, it will happen, your not going to find the UK backing down, Millions want it, and can't wait for it to happen, and not knocking you but for every doom and gloom there is an oppersite report of how it's does have silver linings.

Let's just say millions don't want this either and my view is it will not happen. We can disagree on this as these are not facts.

Agnes, thanks for the link about flying, much happier now, as it says we can Rejoin as a Non EU member, or there is a fall back agreement we can use.

Food rotting, oh yes, so the Country of origin doesn't get paid, as food never arrived.... are you sure they won't mind growing and not getting paid...

Passport delays, mean you decide not to go to EU, EU lose BILLIONS in Summer 2019 as people wait to book, or go somewhere else, and if your going on Business, maybe meetings will be held by video, just for the summer.

Olivia your links are all from JUNE, a week is a long time in Politics.
Your hoping , that's all this is, wishful thinking on your part to stay.

The link I posted was from was not hearsay, but Junkier saying we are going and what he will do afterwards, you have to stop grasping at straws, this is happening, it will happen, your not going to find the UK backing down, Millions want it, and can't wait for it to happen, and not knocking you but for every doom and gloom there is an oppersite report of how it's does have silver linings.

Your looking at this from the point you would like it to stop, reality is that it is happening.. and you have to work from there.

What is the Aviation Board? Pretty sure it’s the Civil Aviation Authority in charge in the UK

No - there is no agreement on what will happen to flights. Davis has already said the UK will leave the ECAA which gives the UK rights to overfly / land / refuel etc in 44 countries and governs the EU agreements such as Open Skies. We also leave the EASA with approves aircraft parts manufactured in the UK.

It’s another complication which will take a long time to sort out.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/european-common-aviation-area-ecaa-brexit-explained

@mummmy2017

Just so we are clear: This will be the first time in history that a country negotiates worse trade deals than it currently has with everyone.

EU goes from SM/CU with no procedures to FTA or WTO will onerous precedures

Rest of World: goes from FTAs and enhanced trade agreements to WTO rules

Please help me understand how worse trade deals lead the UK to benefit. I don't get it.

@mummm2017

URRRR WTO we can Trade, so Food can be paid for and delivered.

This is where I believe you are incorrect.

Under ANYTHING but Single Market and Customs Union membership, there will be border procedures on the way into the UK and into the EU.

Since we will not be under the regulatory sphere of the EU, there will be a need to prove that goods we export satisfy sanitary and phyto sanitary requirements.

The UK will have the same vis a vis goods coming in.

Whether we are under WTO rules or some form of FTA this will need to be done.

Which means: testing in the country of origin, certification (if recognised; if under WTO certification may not be recognised), and testing at the border.

What this means is: time. Lots of it. We will need to not only deal with food but millions of other items per day. Our trade going thru border procedures will quadruple. Overnight.

And what happens if foods sits around in a port? it rots.

So food is a real problem.

Show me an analysis that says otherwise.

Planes the Aviation Board have said it, pretty sure they are the ones flying the planes

Show me the document.

Maybe planes can fly domestically NOT to / from the US and / or EU. This is governed by the Open Skies Agreement summarised here.

Holidays Oh no the EU is the only place in earth apart from the UK...

Don't care about holidays. There will be passport queues longer than usual. Couldn't care less.

@mummmy2017

So here are a few links which expressly state the door is open. The link you provided relates to an expression of sadness that we are leaving; nothing to do with whether we can stay.

first link

second link

third link

fourth link

I'll reply to your other points shortly.

URRRR WTO we can Trade, so Food can be paid for and delivered.

Planes the Aviation Board have said it, pretty sure they are the ones flying the planes

Holidays Oh no the EU is the only place in earth apart from the UK...

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-uk-regret-leaving-jean-claude-juncker-state-of-the-union-a7944046.html
URRR he said we are going as well....

Olivia we disagree of course you keep telling me YOU THINK I AM WRONG.... doesn't mean I am, just you think I am

@mummmy2017

Your kidding yourself, the EU say now we have Trigger Article A50 it's happening.

Uh no. Actually, Tusk and Juncker are saying the door is always open. And technically on our side we can easily stay in if we want.

When you make a statement that is meant to be fact: please show me.

Labour won't stop it do you know why... because it was their members who voted as well as the Tory's, you kid yourselves if it helps but it's going to happen, there is no way Labour want to be in charge at the present moment, and the Tory's will carry on to the leave date.

Well I do agree with you here. Labour is not a courageous lot.

I really do think people are like children , they don't want it so expect something to come along and stop the nasty Brexit happening...

Disagree here. There is a substantial amount of activity I'm seeing to prevent Brexit from going forward. It's not just hope; there is action.

If it's not May in charge just who do you think is going to step forward to lead the party, which ever way a PM turns someone is upset and none of the MP's want to become another Ed Miliband, stealing the leadership and committing political suicide.

Agree. Don't know.

There are many reason I and Blooming Glad we are leaving, all small things that have added up over the last 5 years, each one is silly and small to Olivia, but in the end 17 Million people thought that same as me,,, so maybe the corruption is just the straw that broke the back of the EU in my eyes, one day your going to see that what I said is right,,, no deal, and lets work from there...

Possibly. But I don't see any reason that these should risk our standard of living. And I hate to say it: but many of your perceptions are wrong. You have not backed any up by facts or research. Like many humans, you reach a conclusion and then look for information to back that up. It's the way the mind works, but it should be the reverse.

Oh by the way did you read the bit about the planes can still fly, we can still go on holiday and there will still be food in the shops....

I did not. It would be great news. Please point me to your source.

Your kidding yourself, the EU say now we have Trigger Article A50 it's happening.
Labour won't stop it do you know why... because it was their members who voted as well as the Tory's, you kid yourselves if it helps but it's going to happen, there is no way Labour want to be in charge at the present moment, and the Tory's will carry on to the leave date.
I really do think people are like children , they don't want it so expect something to come along and stop the nasty Brexit happening...
If it's not May in charge just who do you think is going to step forward to lead the party, which ever way a PM turns someone is upset and none of the MP's want to become another Ed Miliband, stealing the leadership and committing political suicide.

There are many reason I and Blooming Glad we are leaving, all small things that have added up over the last 5 years, each one is silly and small to Olivia, but in the end 17 Million people thought that same as me,,, so maybe the corruption is just the straw that broke the back of the EU in my eyes, one day your going to see that what I said is right,,, no deal, and lets work from there... Oh by the way did you read the bit about the planes can still fly, we can still go on holiday and there will still be food in the shops....

This is a fascinating exchange. Well probably more typical.

On the one hand real concerns being expressed based on how things work. And how things might or might not work once we leave the EU.

On the other hand reasons for leaving appear baseless. @mummmy2017 I have not yet seen evidence for the accusations levied towards the EU which justify your motivation.

And sadly this is the case with the vast majority of exchanges with folks who want Brexit. It appears the conclusion is reached first and then the belief is reinforced through whatever means possible. It’s a human way of making decisions but not rational.

@mummmy2017 you asked how Brexit could be reversed.

First Brexit has not happened. Parliament has not yet decided to leave. And the EU can not impose such a decision on the British people. Much like it can’t impose any laws on us either - a Leaver myth.

So as a first step there has to be a vote. The people are not sovereign. Only Parliament is.

Second, A50 notification is a notification of an INTENT to leave subject to the UK having fulfilled its constitutional requirements to do so - A50(1).

As such the two year date is fictional: if Parliament has not voted to leave the EU then A50 lapses. I can show you a legal opinion that supports this if you want (Three Knights Opinion).

So, as a pure technical matter there is nothing to prevent the UK carrying on as a member of the EU. Happy to debate this if you have another view (and no the UK Supreme Court did not opine on this not does it have jurisdiction to do so).

Third, you might ask what would cause Parliament NOT to vote to leave the EU.

My view: a shift in public opinion. We are seeing the beginning of this already. Indeed we have seen for the past three months more people saying leaving was a bad idea than a good idea. It is weak (4 to 6%) and has not been sustained for long enough though. So time is required to bed this trend in and see it more pronounced for politicians to act upon it.

When and if this happens- I think it will as people realise the abject failure this is becoming - then Labour will swing to be the Remain party.

Now it is possible that Labour does this before people change their minds in particular as a hedge against this cliff edge insanity that extremist Tories want to have happen. This would accelerate the process in my view as more people realise that Brexit is not done and dusted.

What of Corbyn? I think he wants to be PM more than he cares about the EU ... His Marxist views are a disaster but I think they can be contained.

What of May? Her govt will fall. Soon. Who will replace? No clue.

I agree with your worries about all of it.

Great. And you’re still looking forward to the Brexit train steaming into Chigley. The Half Man Half Biscuit version anyway.

It's quite simple to stop it - Parliament have to grow a spine.

I admit, it's looking pretty unlikely, but we can still have hope.

After all, Brexiteers have nothing but misguided hope that things are somehow not going to be a fucking disaster after Brexit, so why can't the Remainers have a bit of hope as well?

I agree with your worries about all of it.
I just want to know how people think it can be stopped as they are dreaming, as it's happening.

Sorry, which of your reasons to leave have I dismissed? Am I wrong to be concerned when core businesses are asking for clarity? Am I wrong to wonder if I will be able to book flights next spring? Am I wrong to wonder how to plan our own business activities if I don’t know if I can get staff to where they are needed?

It's a journey and the next stop is Brexit, and afterwards onwards to somewhere different,

Agnes it;s not you but the way people try to dismiss reasons that made some of us vote to leave, as if only they are right, but the biggest point is missed in their need to pretend.

Where have I said stop Brexit?

And, by the way, I’m not actually on a train, although your metaphor of a train coming to a halt on Brexit day may not be quite the vision you were striving for.

How will you STOP brexit....
It's so easy to pick point that worry you, but HOW are you going to STOP Brexit.
Becasue right now your not going to get the result you want.

even if some are very wrong

Please share which points are wrong? When the CFO of Aston Martin used the phrase “semi-catastrophic” because they might have to halt production is he wrong as well? What about IATA? Are they wrong in needing to know what will happen given aviation is not covered by the WTO?

Please explain how you feel you can turn the vote around, so we don't leave, as it seems this train isn't stopping till the leave date, and I see no way to apply the brakes you so crave.

Shame isn't it, that for all your back slapping about how right you are on all your points even if some are very wrong, that what ever and however I feel about the EU, I am just so thankful we are leaving, and your not going to lose your house, you just like saying it.

@AgnesSkinner

The HONDA UK story is interesting. 1 hour of JUST IN TIME inventory. 350 trucks per day. 2 million components per day. With any border checks this becomes impossible. Costs explode.

Did you know a car seat in a typical car crosses the Channel five times before being finished and installed in a car? How does this work with border checks?

Summary: auto supply chains fall apart in anything but maintenance of the Single Market / Customs Union.

It’s likely other industries have similar issues. Aviation- Rolls Royce. BAE.

But hey. It will be fine. Don’t worry your pretty little head about it because Davis Fox and Johnson will sort it out before you know it.

I’ve always found David David underwhelming at best.

More news from the motor manufacturers meeting with the Commons BEIS Committee yesterday - EU may not allow VCA type approval for UK built cars. Add in potential tariffs of 10% on vehicles and 4.5% on parts, and inventory being stuck in customs and it’s looking rather messy.

@AgnesSkinner

So this is what David Davis has in store for the UK?

In fact, given that airline seat inventory is released to computer reservation systems around 330 days prior to the date of departure, it could be even more imminent - end April 2018 is 11 months before we are out of EU air deals.